U.S. BIOMASS SUPPLY FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION: CLIMATE POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND CARBON NEUTRALITY

This paper investigates three important energy and climate policy issues: (1) the availability of biomass for electricity generation (i.e., supply), (2) climate policy effects on this supply, and (3) the net greenhouse gas reduction when biomass is used for electricity generation. Using a detailed model of U.S. agriculture and forestry markets and land-use, that includes a broad and diverse set of biomass feedstocks, we evaluate competing potential sub-national and feedstock specific supplies of biomass for U.S. electricity generation. Our preliminary results suggest significant supply, with residues dominating at lower delivered energy prices, and dedicated crops significant at higher prices. Sub-national variation is dramatic and will affect generation siting and sustainability. We find displacement of food crops, but net forest land and cropland expansion. We also find that GHG policies could substantially increase the delivered cost of biomass; however, the implications for individual regions and feedstocks is non-uniform, with some supplies falling to zero and others increasing. Finally, we find that bioelectricity is not carbon neutral, but can be emissions reducing relative to coal generation, yield greater direct GHG benefits than biofuels, and even result in domestic indirect emissions reductions with incentives for forest based feedstocks.Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Stabilization and the Inevitability of Adaptation: Challenges for U.S. Agriculture

Environmental Economics and Policy, Q1, Q54, Q58,

MODELING ALTERNATIVE POLICIES FOR GHG MITIGATION FROM FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE

A key consideration for development of energy and climate policy affecting the forestry and agricultural sectors is that the selection of specific mechanisms implemented to achieve bioenergy production and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets may have substantial effects on landowner incentives to adopt alternative practices. For instance, the prices of allowances and offsets are expected to diverge under some policies being considered where there is a binding cap on the quantity of offsets from the agricultural and forest sectors. In addition, provisions that limit or exclude specific practices from receiving carbon payments will affect the quantity and cost of GHG mitigation opportunities available. In this study, the recently updated Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with GHGs (FASOMGHG) was used to estimate GHG mitigation potential for private land in the contiguous U.S. under a variety of GHG price policies. Model scenarios suggest that U.S. forestry and agriculture could provide mitigation of 200 – 1000 megatons carbon dioxide equivalent per year (Mt CO2e/year) at carbon prices of $15 to$50/tCO2e. Binding limits on offsets have increasingly large effects on both the total magnitude and distribution of GHG mitigation across options over time. In addition, discounting or excluding payments for forest sinks can reduce annualized land-based mitigation potential 37-90 percent relative to the full eligibility scenario whereas discounting or excluding agricultural practices reduces mitigation potential by less than 10 percent.Climate policy, energy policy, FASOMGHG, GHG mitigation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, Q42, Q54,

Development of a real-time QPCR assay for the detection of RV2 lineage-specific rhadinoviruses in macaques and baboons

BACKGROUND: Two distinct lineages of rhadinoviruses related to Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV/HHV8) have been identified in macaques and other Old World non-human primates. We have developed a real-time quantitative PCR (QPCR) assay using a TaqMan probe to differentially detect and quantitate members of the rhadinovirus-2 (RV2) lineage. PCR primers were derived from sequences within ORF 60 and the adjacent ORF 59/60 intergenic region which were highly conserved between the macaque RV2 rhadinoviruses, rhesus rhadinovirus (RRV) and Macaca nemestrina rhadinovirus-2 (MneRV2). These primers showed little similarity to the corresponding sequences of the macaque RV1 rhadinoviruses, retroperitoneal fibromatosis herpesvirus Macaca nemestrina (RFHVMn) and Macaca mulatta (RFHVMm). To determine viral loads per cell, an additional TaqMan QPCR assay was developed to detect the single copy cellular oncostatin M gene. RESULTS: We show that the RV2 QPCR assay is linear from less than 2 to more than 300,000 copies using MneRV2 DNA, and is non-reactive with RFHVMn DNA up to 1 billion DNA templates per reaction. RV2 loads ranging from 6 to 2,300 viral genome equivalent copies per 10(6 )cells were detected in PBMC from randomly sampled macaques from the Washington National Primate Research Center. Screening tissue from other primate species, including another macaque, Macaca fascicularis, and a baboon, Papio cynocephalus, revealed the presence of novel rhadinoviruses, MfaRV2 and PcyRV2, respectively. Sequence comparison and phylogenetic analysis confirmed their inclusion within the RV2 lineage of KSHV-like rhadinoviruses. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a QPCR assay which provides a quick and sensitive method for quantitating rhadinoviruses belonging to the RV2 lineage of KSHV-like rhadinoviruses found in a variety of macaque species commonly used for biomedical research. While this assay broadly detects different RV2 rhadinovirus species, it is unreactive with RV1 rhadinovirus species which commonly co-infect the same primate hosts. We also show that this QPCR assay can be used to identify novel RV2 rhadinoviruses in different primate species

Progress on Ultrasonic Flaw Sizing in Turbine Engine Rotor Components: Bore and Web Geometries

The application of generic flaw sizing techniques to specific components generally involves difficulties associated with geometrical complexity and simplifications arising from a knowledge of the expected flaw distribution. This paper is concerned with the case of ultrasonic flaw sizing in turbine engine rotor components. The sizing of flat penny shaped cracks in the web geometry will be discussed and new crack sizing algorithms based on the Born and Kirchhoff approximations will be introduced. Additionally we propose a simple method for finding the size of a flat, penny shaped crack given only the magnitude of the scattering amplitude. The bore geometry is discussed with primary emphasis on the cylindrical focussing of the incident beam. Important questions which are addressed include the effects of diffraction and the position of the flaw with respect to the focal line. The appropriate deconvolution procedures to account for these effects will be introduced. Generic features of the theory will be compared with experiment. Finally, the effects of focused transducers on the Born inversion algorithm are discussed

Variability in Global Top-of-Atmosphere Shortwave Radiation Between 2000 and 2005

Measurements from various instruments and analysis techniques are used to directly compare changes in Earth-atmosphere shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation between 2000 and 2005. Included in the comparison are estimates of TOA reflectance variability from published ground-based Earthshine observations and from new satellite-based CERES, MODIS and ISCCP results. The ground-based Earthshine data show an order-of-magnitude more variability in annual mean SW TOA flux than either CERES or ISCCP, while ISCCP and CERES SW TOA flux variability is consistent to 40%. Most of the variability in CERES TOA flux is shown to be dominated by variations global cloud fraction, as observed using coincident CERES and MODIS data. Idealized Earthshine simulations of TOA SW radiation variability for a lunar-based observer show far less variability than the ground-based Earthshine observations, but are still a factor of 4-5 times more variable than global CERES SW TOA flux results. Furthermore, while CERES global albedos exhibit a well-defined seasonal cycle each year, the seasonal cycle in the lunar Earthshine reflectance simulations is highly variable and out-of-phase from one year to the next. Radiative transfer model (RTM) approaches that use imager cloud and aerosol retrievals reproduce most of the change in SW TOA radiation observed in broadband CERES data. However, assumptions used to represent the spectral properties of the atmosphere, clouds, aerosols and surface in the RTM calculations can introduce significant uncertainties in annual mean changes in regional and global SW TOA flux

Detection of Anisotropies in the Gravitational-Wave Stochastic Background

By correlating the signals from a pair of gravitational-wave detectors, one can undertake sensitive searches for a stochastic background of gravitational radiation. If the stochastic background is anisotropic, then this correlated signal varies harmonically with the earth's rotation. We calculate how the harmonics of this varying signal are related to the multipole moments which characterize the anisotropy, and give a formula for the signal-to-noise ratio of a given harmonic. The specific case of the two LIGO (Laser Interferometric Gravitational Observatory) detectors, which will begin operation around the year 2000, is analyzed in detail. We consider two possible examples of anisotropy. If the gravitational-wave stochastic background contains a dipole intensity anisotropy whose origin (like that of the Cosmic Background Radiation) is motion of our local system, then that anisotropy will be observable by the advanced LIGO detector (with 90% confidence in one year of observation) if \Omega_{gw} > 5.3 \times 10^{-8} h_{100}^{-2}. We also study the signal produced by stochastic sources distributed in the same way as the luminous matter in the galactic disk, and in the same way as the galactic halo. The anisotropy due to sources distributed as the galactic disk or as the galactic halo will be observable by the advanced LIGO detector (with 90% confidence in one year of observation) if \Omega_{gw} > 1.8 \times 10^{-10} h_{100}^{-2} or \Omega_{gw} > 6.7 \times 10^{-8} h_{100}^{-2}, respectively.Comment: 25 pages, Latex with RevTeX and epsfig, now includes S/N ratio calculations, expected response from anisotropy due to local motion & sources in galax

Relation of Cloud Occurrence Frequency, Overlap, and Effective Thickness Derived from CALIPSO and CloudSat Merged Cloud Vertical Profiles

A cloud frequency of occurrence matrix is generated using merged cloud vertical profile derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR). The matrix contains vertical profiles of cloud occurrence frequency as a function of the uppermost cloud top. It is shown that the cloud fraction and uppermost cloud top vertical pro les can be related by a set of equations when the correlation distance of cloud occurrence, which is interpreted as an effective cloud thickness, is introduced. The underlying assumption in establishing the above relation is that cloud overlap approaches the random overlap with increasing distance separating cloud layers and that the probability of deviating from the random overlap decreases exponentially with distance. One month of CALIPSO and CloudSat data support these assumptions. However, the correlation distance sometimes becomes large, which might be an indication of precipitation. The cloud correlation distance is equivalent to the de-correlation distance introduced by Hogan and Illingworth [2000] when cloud fractions of both layers in a two-cloud layer system are the same