El control del gasto público por incapacidad temporal mediante redes neuronales

La incapacidad temporal (IT) en España generó en el año 2001 unos costes directos de cuatro mil millones de euros y unos costes indirectos aproximados de doce mil millones de euros. Los métodos actuales de control de la IT se realizan a posteriori, una vez recibida la baja laboral y principalmente sobre la base de duraciones normativas para cada enfermedad. El objetivo de este trabajo es proponer un modelo para la gestión de la IT con el fin de disminuir de forma racional el coste de la prestación por IT no justificado, por medio del control de su duración de manera individualizada. Para este fin se propone el uso de una herramienta flexible, las redes neuronales artificiales (RNAs), que permita predecir la duración de la baja laboral esperada para cada afiliado activo en función de determinadas variables individuales, además de la enfermedad, que también influyen en el tiempo de baja pero que no tienen en cuenta los métodos actuales. Los resultados empíricos de este trabajo, obtenidos para la provincia de Guadalajara durante el período 1995-2001, muestran cómo el modelo de RNAs permite realizar mejores predicciones individualizadas que un modelo tradicional de regresión lineal múltiple. Además, estas predicciones a priori van a permitir racionalizar el proceso de gestión y control de la prestación económica por IT con el consiguiente ahorro de gasto público. Classification-JEL : H51, I18. Incapacidad temporal, redes neuronales artificiales, control del gasto público.

Las Prestaciones por Incapacidad Temporal: Una Evaluación mediante Modelos ARIMA

El objetivo de este trabajo es modelar la evolución de los indicadores de incapacidad temporal. Disponer de modelos capaces de aproximar cuál será la evolución temporal de los indicadores económicos de baja laboral resulta clave por múltiples aspectos. Por un lado, permite tomar medidas de prevención y planificación sanitaria en el caso de que se detecte un aumento en la incidencia de una enfermedad. Por otro lado, la elaboración de un modelo de series temporales nos va a permitir evaluar el impacto de medidas de política de gestión sanitaria. En este trabajo se han utilizado datos suministrados por la Dirección Provincial del INSALUD de la provincia de Guadalajara entre 1989 y 2001. Con estos datos hemos estimando modelos ARIMA para predecir la evolución de los indicadores por de gasto por incapacidad temporal. Además, en Guadalajara se diseñó un plan especial de inspección de las bajas laborales, entre 1994 y 1996. Mediante este modelo se ha contrastado que esta política fue eficaz y supuso una reducción del coste durante ese periodo de un 34%. El análisis efectuado nos permite además afirmar que a pesar de eliminar el componente estacional de la gripe existen otras variables sociolaborales relacionas con el fraude que explican que los procesos de baja no se comporten de forma uniforme en el tiempo.public expenditure, sickness absence at work, ARIMA models

Determinants of grade retention in France and Spain: Does birth month matter?

In France and Spain, children born in the same calendar year start school together, regardless of maturity differences due to their birth month. This paper analyses the educational impact of birth month on the probability of grade retention controlling by other covariates. Using the PISA 2009 database for both countries, wedo identify a great impact on grade retention since students born in the last months of the year are between 70% and 80% more likely to repeat a grade than children born in the first months of the same year. We conclude that policy interventions are required in those countries to ensure that individuals are not unfairly penalized by their birth month

School Bullying in Compulsory and Advanced Secondary Education. Determining Factors in its Intervention

Background: School bullying is a problem that has been considered from various different perspectives in the academic literature. The present work seeks to increase knowledge on the influence of the climate established at the school in order to determine if contextual factors can be used as a reference from which to plan interventions directed towards prevention. Methods: An ad hoc validated questionnaire was administered to 554 pupils in secondary education (compulsory and A Level) who were aged between 12 and 18 years. Results: Descriptive bivariate analysis showed the quality of the relationship established by the individual with their environment to be a key indicator of their susceptibility to school bullying. In the same way, acceptance in school is a protective factor against victimization. Conclusions: The most effective interventions are those which focus on the center of education and involve all of the educational community, taking a transversal approach that transforms the cultural system within which students develop

Integral field spectroscopy of HII regions in M33

Integral field spectroscopy (IFS) is presented for star forming regions in M33. A central area of 300 x 500 pc^2 and the external HII region IC 132, at a galactocentric distance {\sim} 19arcmin (4.69 kpc) were observed with the Potsdam Multi Aperture Spectrophotometer (PMAS) instrument at the 3.5 m telescope of the Calar Alto Hispano- Alem\'an observatory (CAHA). The spectral coverage goes from 3600 A to 1{\mu}m to include from [OII]{\lambda}3727 A to the near infrared lines required for deriving sulphur electron temperature and abundance diagnostics. Local conditions within individual HII regions are presented in the form of emission line fluxes and physical conditions for each spatial resolution element (spaxel) and for segments with similar H{\alpha} surface brightness. A clear dichotomy is observed when comparing the central to outer disc HII regions. While the external HII region has higher electron temperature plus larger H{\beta} equivalent width, size and excitation, the central region has higher extinction and metal content. The dichotomy extends to the BPT diagnostic diagrams that show two orthogonal broad distributions of points. By comparing with pseudo-3D photoionization models we conclude that the bulk observed differences are probably related to a different ionization parameter and metallicity. Wolf-Rayet features are detected in IC 132, and resolved into two concentrations whose integrated spectra were used to estimate the characteristic number of WR stars. No WR features were detected in the central HII regions despite their higher metallicity.Comment: 72 pages, 37 figure

Impact of laser attacks on the switching behavior of RRAM devices

The ubiquitous use of critical and private data in electronic format requires reliable and secure embedded systems for IoT devices. In this context, RRAMs (Resistive Random Access Memories) arises as a promising alternative to replace current memory technologies. However, their suitability for this kind of application, where the integrity of the data is crucial, is still under study. Among the different typology of attacks to recover information of secret data, laser attack is one of the most common due to its simplicity. Some preliminary works have already addressed the influence of laser tests on RRAM devices. Nevertheless, the results are not conclusive since different responses have been reported depending on the circuit under testing and the features of the test. In this paper, we have conducted laser tests on individual RRAM devices. For the set of experiments conducted, the devices did not show faulty behaviors. These results contribute to the characterization of RRAMs and, together with the rest of related works, are expected to pave the way for the development of suitable countermeasures against external attacks.Postprint (published version