Drought risk management in southern Africa. The potential of long lead climate forecasts for improved drought management

Although climate variability is the single most important factor affecting the livelihood of the people of southern Africa, there is no country in which drought risk is managed well. This mission set out to determine whether the social and economic benefits from making use of long lead climate forecast techniques for managing drought risk in southern Africa would justify investment directed towards bringing forward the techniques into operational usage. The four person mission consulted a wide range of decision makers, weather information users and technical specialists in Botswana, Malawi, South Africa and Zimbabwe during the month of July 1995. The views of those consulted were markedly positive and convergent. Reliable drought prediction is a very high priority for the people and economies of southern Africa. The mission found that: while climates are always changing, southern Africa does indeed appear to be becoming increasingly drought affected; for many governments, people and purposes in the region, reliable indication of the quality of the next wet season is probably the most useful single item of information that could be provided; ongoing climate research is much closer than is generally appreciated to being able to provide reliable and timely information of this kind; It is not logical to wait for forecast skill to be 100% reliable before beginning to incorporate forecasts into decision making meteorological institutions in the region are not capable of realising the full potential of their global links in their present state: they need both investment and development; while improved long lead forecasts offer the prospect of significant benefits, these will not be fully realised without a number of concurrent developments across the economy. The mission concludes that relatively modest investment towards both improving climate prediction and strengthening information dissemination and uptake pathways could revolutionise drought risk 'management-enhancing economic responsibility, food security and natural resource management throughout the region. Benefits from the better management of strategic grain reserves alone would justify the necessary investment. The mission recommends that ODA, the World Bank and other development organisations recognise the important potential of these techniques for mitigating many of the effects of recurrent drought, and seek the means to ensure their broad multi-disciplinary implementation for maximum impact and benefit

A millisecond pulsar in a stellar triple system

Gravitationally bound three-body systems have been studied for hundreds of years and are common in our Galaxy. They show complex orbital interactions, which can constrain the compositions, masses, and interior structures of the bodies and test theories of gravity, if sufficiently precise measurements are available. A triple system containing a radio pulsar could provide such measurements, but the only previously known such system, B1620-26 (with a millisecond pulsar, a white dwarf, and a planetary-mass object in an orbit of several decades), shows only weak interactions. Here we report precision timing and multi-wavelength observations of PSR J0337+1715, a millisecond pulsar in a hierarchical triple system with two other stars. Strong gravitational interactions are apparent and provide the masses of the pulsar (1.4378(13) Msun, where Msun is the solar mass and the parentheses contain the uncertainty in the final decimal places) and the two white dwarf companions (0.19751(15) Msun and 0.4101(3) Msun), as well as the inclinations of the orbits (both approximately 39.2 degrees). The unexpectedly coplanar and nearly circular orbits indicate a complex and exotic evolutionary past that differs from those of known stellar systems. The gravitational field of the outer white dwarf strongly accelerates the inner binary containing the neutron star, and the system will thus provide an ideal laboratory in which to test the strong equivalence principle of general relativity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 table. Published online by Nature on 5 Jan 2014. Extremely minor differences with published version may exis

Shared Care, Elder and Family Member Skills Used to Manage Burden

Aim. The aim of this paper is to further develop the construct of Shared Care by comparing and contrasting it to related research, and to show how the construct can be used to guide research and practice. Background. While researchers have identified negative outcomes for family caregivers caused by providing care, less is known about positive aspects of family care for both members of a family dyad. Understanding family care relationships is important to nurses because family participation in the care of chronically ill elders is necessary to achieve optimal outcomes from nursing interventions. A previous naturalistic inquiry identified a new construct, Shared Care, which was used to describe a family care interaction that contributed to positive care outcomes. Methods. A literature review was carried out using the databases Medline, CINAHL, and Psych-info and the keywords home care, care receiver, disability, family, communication, decision-making and reciprocity. The results of the review were integrated to suggest how Shared Care could be used to study care difficulties and guide interventions. Results. The literature confirmed the importance of dyad relationships in family care. Shared Care extended previous conceptualizations of family care by capturing three critical components: communication, decision-making, and reciprocity. Shared Care provides a structure to expand the conceptualization of family care to include both members of a care dyad and account for positive and negative aspects of care. Conclusions. The extended view provided by the construct of Shared Care offers practitioners and scholars tools to use in the context of our ageing population to improve the effectiveness of family care relationships

Rationale and study protocol for Unidas por la Vida (United for Life): A dyadic weight-loss intervention for high-risk Latina mothers and their adult daughters.

BackgroundHalf of Mexican-American women are under-active and nearly 78% are overweight/obese. The high lifetime risk of developing type 2 diabetes necessitates a culturally appropriate lifestyle intervention.PurposeUnidas por la Vida is a novel dyadic intervention that capitalizes on the centrality of family in Latino culture to mobilize an existing family dyad as a resource for health behavior change. The intervention aims to improve health behaviors and promote weight loss in two at-risk members of the same family: mothers with type 2 diabetes and their overweight/obese adult daughters who are at risk for developing diabetes.MethodsParticipants (N = 460 mother-adult daughter dyads) will be randomized into one of three conditions: 1) dyadic participation (mothers-daughters) in a lifestyle intervention; 2) individual participation (mothers alone; unrelated daughters alone) in a lifestyle intervention; and 3) mother-daughter dyads in a minimal intervention control group.ResultsThe primary outcome is weight loss. Secondary outcomes include physical activity, dietary intake, physiological measures (e.g. HbA1c), and body composition. Both the dyadic and individual interventions are expected to produce greater weight loss at 6, 12, and 18 months than those in minimal intervention control group, with women assigned to the dyadic intervention expected to lose more weight and to maintain the weight loss longer than women assigned to the individual intervention.ConclusionBecause health risks are often shared by multiple members of at-risk families, culturally appropriate, dyadic interventions have the potential to increase the success of behavior change efforts and to extend their reach to multiple family members.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02741037

Mental Health of Parents and Life Satisfaction of Children: A Within-Family Analysis of Intergenerational Transmission of Well-Being

This paper addresses the extent to which there is an intergenerational transmission of mental health and subjective well-being within families. Specifically it asks whether parents’ own mental distress influences their child’s life satisfaction, and vice versa. Whilst the evidence on daily contagion of stress and strain between members of the same family is substantial, the evidence on the transmission between parental distress and children’s well-being over a longer period of time is sparse. We tested this idea by examining the within-family transmission of mental distress from parent to child’s life satisfaction, and vice versa, using rich longitudinal data on 1,175 British youths. Results show that parental distress at year t-1 is an important determinant of child’s life satisfaction in the current year. This is true for boys and girls, although boys do not appear to be affected by maternal distress levels. The results also indicated that the child’s own life satisfaction is related with their father’s distress levels in the following year, regardless of the gender of the child. Finally, we examined whether the underlying transmission correlation is due to shared social environment, empathic reactions, or transmission via parent-child interaction

Clinical and laboratory experience of vorinostat (suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid) in the treatment of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma

The most common cutaneous T-cell lymphomas (CTCLs) – mycosis fungoides (MF) and Sézary Syndrome – are characterised by the presence of clonally expanded, skin-homing helper-memory T cells exhibiting abnormal apoptotic control mechanisms. Epigenetic modulation of genes that induce apoptosis and differentiation of malignant T cells may therefore represent an attractive new strategy for targeted therapy for T-cell lymphomas. In vitro studies show that vorinostat (suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or SAHA), an oral inhibitor of class I and II histone deacetylases, induces selective apoptosis of malignant CTCL cell lines and peripheral blood lymphocytes from CTCL patients at clinically achievable doses. In a Phase IIa clinical trial, vorinostat therapy achieved a meaningful partial response (>50% reduction in disease burden) in eight out of 33 (24%) patients with heavily pretreated, advanced refractory CTCL. The most common major toxicities of oral vorinostat therapy were fatigue and gastrointestinal symptoms (diarrhoea, altered taste, nausea, and dehydration from not eating). Thrombocytopenia was dose limiting in patients receiving oral vorinostat at the higher dose induction levels of 300 mg twice daily for 14 days. These studies suggest that vorinostat represents a promising new agent in the treatment of CTCL patients. Additional studies are underway to define the exact mechanism (s) of by which vorinostat induces selective apoptosis in CTCL cells and to further evaluate the antitumour efficacy of vorinostat in a Phase IIb study in CTCL patients

A kinetic equation for economic value estimation with irrationality and herding

A kinetic inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equation is proposed to model the dynamics of the number of agents in a large market depending on the estimated value of an asset and the rationality of the agents. The interaction rules take into account the interplay of the agents with sources of public information, herding phenomena, and irrationality of the individuals. In the formal grazing collision limit, a nonlinear nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation with anisotropic (or incomplete) diffusion is derived. The existence of global-in-time weak solutions to the Fokker-Planck initial-boundary-value problem is proved. Numerical experiments for the Boltzmann equation highlight the importance of the reliability of public information in the formation of bubbles and crashes. The use of Bollinger bands in the simulations shows how herding may lead to strong trends with low volatility of the asset prices, but eventually also to abrupt corrections

Evolution of protein-coupled RNA dynamics during hierarchical assembly of ribosomal complexes

Assembly of 30S ribosomes involves the hierarchical addition of ribosomal proteins that progressively stabilize the folded 16S rRNA. Here, we use three-color single molecule FRET to show how combinations of ribosomal proteins uS4, uS17 and bS20 in the 16S 5' domain enable the recruitment of protein bS16, the next protein to join the complex. Analysis of real-time bS16 binding events shows that bS16 binds both native and non-native forms of the rRNA. The native rRNA conformation is increasingly favored after bS16 binds, explaining how bS16 drives later steps of 30S assembly. Chemical footprinting and molecular dynamics simulations show that each ribosomal protein switches the 16S conformation and dampens fluctuations at the interface between rRNA subdomains where bS16 binds. The results suggest that specific protein-induced changes in the rRNA dynamics underlie the hierarchy of 30S assembly and simplify the search for the native ribosome structure