Corruption and development. A comparative approach to socioeconomic and political dimensions worldwide

The present study investigates relevant economic, social and political dimensions of development worldwide, focusing on (apparent and latent) links between perceived corruption, economic and human development, government effectiveness and the quality of the political system taken as representative variables of countries\u2019 social systems. These variables were selected as the basic determinants of the level of overall development in a country, since combinations of these factors determine clusters of countries with different development patterns. The results of this study indicate that effective development policies require integrated strategies that incorporate efforts to reduce corruption and increase human development and government effectiveness. These strategies are sustainable in the long run when associated with institutional transformations. More specifically, if democracy is not consolidated and the political system is not grounded on the basis of freedom, socioeconomic development cannot be achieved and maintained in the long term, even with a high level of per-capita income

Unravelling the role of socioeconomic forces in the early stage of covid-19 pandemic: A global analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly evolved into an acute health crisis with extensive socioeconomic and demographic consequences. The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a refined (and more comprehensive) understanding of virus dissemination over space, transmission mechanisms, clinical features, and risk factors. In line with this assumption, the present study illustrates a comparative, empirical analysis of the role of socioeconomic and demographic dimensions in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic grounded on a large set of indicators comparing the background context across a global sample of countries. Results indicate that—in addition to epidemiological factors—basic socioeconomic forces significantly shaped contagions as well as hospitalization and death rates across countries. As a response to the global crisis driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, all-embracing access to healthcare services should be strengthened along with the development of sustainable health systems supported by appropriate resources and skills. The empirical findings of this study have direct implications for the coordination of on-going, global efforts aimed at containing COVID-19 (and other, future) pandemics

Unraveling the (intrinsic) linkage between social spending and regional development: An empirical analysis for European union countries

Theoretical approaches and place-specific solutions are required to face with the intrinsic linkage between social welfare and macroeconomic stability in advanced economies, especially in Europe. In this regard, the 2007 recession has influenced extensively the wide spectrum of social policies applicable in the European Community. New socioeconomic divides emerged and fiscal austerity urged Member States to resettle policy discourses, advancing social needs in a more effective way. In line with this evidence, our commentary discusses recent literature and it outlines policy implications of different political, institutional and socioeconomic settings. By analyzing cross-country variations in the shape and extent of welfare policies at the European level, our study evaluates apparent (and latent) performances of welfare systems in a comparative perspective, with a specific focus on Southern European countries. The existence of a latent relationship between social policy expenditures (SPE) and per-capita GDP was demonstrated. However, social expenditures may differ for a given level of income: for instance, Latvia had a lower level of social expenditures given its income level. Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal were clustered together displaying a lower share of social spending in the total GDP in respect with the remaining European countries. This comparison suggests how Mediterranean countries are institutionally fragile and with a moderately higher level of corruption in respect with North-western countries. The results of this work contribute to bridge the semantic dichotomy between theoretical approaches and empirical findings in socioeconomic policy impact analysis

Domestic vs. External Economic Sectors and the Political Process: Insights from Greece

Building on the well-established relationship between economic dynamics and political processes, we focus on the most important element of the political process, namely, general (or national) elections, and look into their effects on public finance and total economic output. In this vein, the present study has three objectives: (i) to investigate political budget cycles in Greece during the period known as the ‘Third Hellenic Republic’ (in Greek, ‘Metapolitefsi’, hereafter THR) since 1974; (ii) to assess whether national elections affect total economic activity in a stabilizing or destabilizing way; and (iii) to examine the possible effects of the external sector of the economy on the budget balance. The empirical findings of our analysis document how the Greek economy was characterized by sharp political budget cycles in correspondence with the THR, exerting a destabilizing effect on the total output of the economy. Performances of the external sector of the economy have significantly affected budget balances in Greece

Investigating Metropolitan Hierarchies through a Spatially Explicit (Local) Approach

Assuming a non-neutral impact of space, an explicit assessment of metropolitan hierarchies based on local regression models produces a refined description of population settlement patterns and processes over time. We used Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) to provide an enriched interpretation of the density gradient in Greece, estimating a spatially explicit rank–size relationship inspired by Zipf’s law. The empirical results of the GWR models quantified the adherence of real data (municipal population density as a predictor of metropolitan hierarchy) to the operational assumptions of the rank–size relationship. Local deviations from its prediction were explained considering the peculiarity of the metropolitan cycle (1961–2011) in the country. Although preliminary and exploratory, these findings decomposed representative population dynamics in two stages of the cycle (namely urbanization, 1961–1991, and suburbanization, 1991–2011). Being in line with earlier studies, this timing allowed a geographical interpretation of the evolution of a particularly complex metropolitan system with intense (urban) primacy and a weak level of rural development over a sufficiently long time interval. Introducing a spatially explicit estimation of the rank–size relationship at detailed territorial resolutions provided an original contribution to regional science, covering broad geographical scales

Political budget cycles and effects of the excessive deficit procedure: The case of Greece

We study the existence, magnitude, and determinants of political budget cycles in Greece over the past 40 years. We find that the Greek economy has been characterised by extensive electorally-motivated cycles, which are not typical of a developed country. However, we show that the corrective fiscal measures imposed by the European institutions in the face of the Greek debt crisis suppressed these pre-electoral fiscal policy manipulations. In particular, the imposition of the Excessive Deficit Procedure of the Stability and Growth Pact reduced the ability of domestic politicians to increase public deficits to the point where it eliminated, albeit only marginally, political budget cycles

Population dynamics and agglomeration factors: A non-linear threshold estimation of density effects

Abstract: Although Southern Europe is relatively homogeneous in terms of settlement characteristics and urban dynamics, spatial heterogeneity in its population distribution is still high, and differences across regions outline specific demographic patterns that require in-depth investigation. In such contexts, density-dependent mechanisms of population growth are a key factor regulating socio-demographic dynamics at various spatial levels. Results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution of the resident population in Greece contributes to identifying latent (density-dependent) processes of metropolitan growth over a sufficiently long time interval (1961-2011). Identification of density-dependent patterns of population growth contributes to the analysis of socioeconomic factors underlying demographic divides, possibly distinguishing between the effects of population concentration and dispersion. Population growth rates were non-linearly correlated with population density, highlighting a positive (or negative) impact of urban concentration on demographic growth when population is lower (or higher) than a fixed threshold (2800 and 1300 inhabitants/km2 in 1961 and 2011, respectively). In a context of low population density (less than 20 inhabitants/km2), the relationship between density and growth was again negative, contrasting with the positive and linear relationship observed in denser contexts. This result evidences a sort of 'depopulation' trap that leads to accelerated population decline under a defined density threshold. An improved understanding of density-dependent mechanisms of population growth and decline contributes to rethinking strategies of sustainable development and social policies more adapted to heterogeneous regional contexts

‘Pulsing’ cities and ‘swarming’ metropolises: A simplified, entropy-based approach to long-term urban development

Relocating activities along the fringe, re-designing economic functions, and re-modelling settlement structures across larger regions and broader spatial scales, reflect the inherent shift toward complex metropolitan systems. A refined understanding of urban change requires the adoption of a ‘complex thinking’ that focuses on adaptive behaviour of key agents and local development networks within highly volatile real estate markets. By linking ecology with regional science, our study investigates speed and spatial direction of building activity rates introducing original indicators of urban growth and an exploratory multivariate statistics of the evolving socioeconomic context in the Athens’ region, Greece. Having experienced spatially uncoordinated growth that often resulted in self-organised settlements and socially diversified neighbourhoods, Athens was a paradigmatic example of complex metropolitan systems in Europe. The empirical findings of our study identify non-linear stages of the metropolitan cycle supporting the assumption that long-term urban expansion is a recursive process, with irregular accelerations and decelerations, and a complex relationship between spatial and temporal dimensions. Urban transformations are associated with a broad spectrum of socioeconomic conditions. While playing a variable role over the last century, the most relevant factors in Athens’ growth include population dynamics, urban concentration, and wealth accumulation. Considering such dynamics, spatial planning is required to give adaptive responses to discontinuous socioeconomic development increasingly dependent on territorial aspects and environmental constraints

Population trends and urbanization. Simulating density effects using a local regression approach

7siopenDensity-dependent population growth regulates long-term urban expansion and shapes distinctive socioeconomic trends. Despite a marked heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the resident population, Mediterranean European countries are considered more homogeneous than countries in other European regions as far as settlement structure and processes of metropolitan growth are concerned. However, rising socioeconomic inequalities among Southern European regions reflect latent demographic and territorial transformations that require further investigation. An integrated assessment of the spatio-temporal distribution of resident populations in more than 1000 municipalities (1961-2011) was carried out in this study to characterize density-dependent processes of metropolitan growth in Greece. Using geographically weighted regressions, the results of our study identified distinctive local relationships between population density and growth rates over time. Our results demonstrate that demographic growth rates were non-linearly correlated with other variables, such as population density, with positive and negative impacts during the first (1961-1971) and the last (2001-2011) observation decade, respectively. These findings outline a progressive shift over time from density-dependent processes of population growth, reflecting a rapid development of large metropolitan regions (Athens, Thessaloniki) in the 1960s, to density-dependent processes more evident in medium-sized cities and accessible rural regions in the 2000s. Density-independent processes of population growth have been detected in the intermediate study period (1971-2001). This work finally discusses how a long-term analysis of demographic growth, testing for density-dependent mechanisms, may clarify the intrinsic role of population concentration and dispersion in different phases of the metropolitan cycle in Mediterranean Europe.openPolinesi G.; Recchioni M.C.; Turco R.; Salvati L.; Rontos K.; Rodrigo-Comino J.; Benassi F.Polinesi, G.; Recchioni, M. C.; Turco, R.; Salvati, L.; Rontos, K.; Rodrigo-Comino, J.; Benassi, F

Population dynamics in southern Europe : A local-scale analysis, 1961-2011

Different socioeconomic, historical, political, and cultural factors have influenced long-term settlement patterns and demographic structures in Europe. Southern Europe is considered a relatively homogeneous region as far as settlement characteristics and population dynamics are concerned. Within-country local variability in the spatial distribution of population is high, and inherent differences across countries may outline distinct demographic patterns at regional scale. A comparative, local-scale analysis of population distribution in five countries (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Greece, and Cyprus) over a relatively long time period (1961-2011) contributes to identify latent demographic trends in Mediterranean Europe at the spatial scale of Local Administrative Units (LAU). A spatially-explicit analysis of basic indicators of population density and demographic change allows identification of territorial disparities, reflecting local-scale settlement patterns common to different countries (e.g., population growth along coastal districts). These patterns consolidate a metropolitan hierarchy centered on large-mainly compact-cities and more dispersed conurbations along coastal areas. At the same time, the examined countries present different territorial contexts resulting in distinct population dynamics in turn influenced by internal (e.g., national policies, culture and local identity, class segregation) and exogenous (e.g., economic cycle, urbanization models) factors. A spatially-explicit analysis of demographic trends at local scale may contribute to rethinking urban strategies and adapting spatial planning to heterogeneous socioeconomic contexts across Europe