Stochastic climate theory and modeling

Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as subgrid-scale parameterizations (SSPs) as well as for model error representation, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation, and ensemble prediction. The need to use stochastic approaches in weather and climate models arises because we still cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales in comprehensive numerical weather and climate prediction models. In many practical applications one is mainly interested in the largest and potentially predictable scales and not necessarily in the small and fast scales. For instance, reduced order models can simulate and predict large-scale modes. Statistical mechanics and dynamical systems theory suggest that in reduced order models the impact of unresolved degrees of freedom can be represented by suitable combinations of deterministic and stochastic components and non-Markovian (memory) terms. Stochastic approaches in numerical weather and climate prediction models also lead to the reduction of model biases. Hence, there is a clear need for systematic stochastic approaches in weather and climate modeling. In this review, we present evidence for stochastic effects in laboratory experiments. Then we provide an overview of stochastic climate theory from an applied mathematics perspective. We also survey the current use of stochastic methods in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models and show that stochastic parameterizations have the potential to remedy many of the current biases in these comprehensive models

Safety and tolerability of cladribine tablets in multiple sclerosis: the CLARITY (CLAdRIbine Tablets treating multiple sclerosis orallY) study

Background: Cladribine is a synthetic deoxyadenosine analogue in development as an oral multiple sclerosis (MS) therapy.Objective: To report in detail the safety findings from the 96-week, phase III, double-blind CLARITY study, which evaluated treatment with cladribine tablets in relapsing-remitting MS.Methods: A total of 1,326 patients were randomized 1 : 1 : 1 to two short-course regimens of cladribine tablets (3.5 or 5.25 mg/kg cumulative dose over 96 weeks) or placebo. Safety assessments included monitoring for adverse events (AEs), routine physical and neurologic examinations and frequent laboratory parameter assessments.Results: Of the randomized patients, 88.6% completed treatment with cladribine tablets versus 86.3% with placebo. Lymphopenia was the most commonly reported AE in patients treated with cladribine tablets and was anticipated based on the mechanism of action. The incidence of infections was 48.3% with cladribine tablets and 42.5% with placebo, with 99.1% and 99.0% rated mild-to-moderate by investigators. Herpes zoster infections developed in 20 (2.3%) cladribine-treated patients; all cases were dermatomal. There were no herpes zoster infections in the placebo group. Nine (1.0%) patients experienced events related to uterine leiomyomas in the cladribine tablets groups versus one (0.2%) with placebo. Three isolated cases of malignancy were reported in cladribine-treated patients during the study; a fourth was reported during post-study surveillance. A pre-malignant cervical carcinoma in situ was also reported. The incidence of malignancies during the study did not exceed the expected rate in a population standardized for country, gender and age.Conclusion: The safety and tolerability profile observed in the CLARITY study together with the reported efficacy support the potential for cladribine tablets as an MS therapy

Exceptional mobility of an advancing rhyolitic obsidian flow at Cordon Caulle volcano in Chile:observations from Cordón Caulle, Chile, 2011-2013.

The emplacement mechanisms of rhyolitic lava flows are enigmatic and, despite high lava viscosities and low inferred effusion rates, can result in remarkably, laterally extensive (>30 km) flow fields. Here we present the first observations of an active, extensive rhyolitic lava flow field from the 2011–2012 eruption at Cordón Caulle, Chile. We combine high-resolution four-dimensional flow front models, created using automated photo reconstruction techniques, with sequential satellite imagery. Late-stage evolution greatly extended the compound lava flow field, with localized extrusion from stalled, ~35 m-thick flow margins creating >80 breakout lobes. In January 2013, flow front advance continued ~3.6 km from the vent, despite detectable lava supply ceasing 6–8 months earlier. This illustrates how efficient thermal insulation by the lava carapace promotes prolonged within-flow horizontal lava transport, boosting the extent of the flow. The unexpected similarities with compound basaltic lava flow fields point towards a unifying model of lava emplacement