A simple method to estimate firms' liquidity needs during the Covid-19 crisis with an application to Italy

2noopenWe propose a simple method based on firms' balance sheets and sectoral predictions of sales growth to determine the firms that will become illiquid month by month as the Covid-19 crisis unfolds. We apply the method to the population of Italian incorporated businesses to the end of 2020. We find that at the peak, around 200,000 companies employing 3.3 million workers would become illiquid. The progression is fast, with 180,000 firms turning illiquid already by April. The liquidity shortage, defined as the "negative" liquidity stock of illiquid firms, amounts to 72 billion. We evaluate the Italian government liquidity decree, which provides guarantees for bank loans under four different facilities of increasing complexity. Assuming that firms have access to all the facilities, almost all firms are able to cover their liquidity shortfalls. The issue is the speed of implementation: the facilities supplying more liquidity are more complex to administrate, and many firms require these facilities to cover their liquidity shortfalls. Overall, we conclude that even in the case of a second wave after the summer, which would increase the liquidity shortfall substantially, firms' liquidity needs are manageable under the current schemes of liquidity provision.openFabiano Schivardi; Guido RomanoSchivardi, Fabiano; Romano, Guid

A resilient approach to manage a Supply Chain Network

Today we depend more and more on logistic networks, which often know nothing, or worse, on which our power of control is almost zero. It is impossible to imagine a life without certain types of products or food, all of that to get us often follow long and complex network and therefore vulnerable. Let see how increase in energy costs has engulfed many small companies. Differently by rising energy costs, there are also changes that are not so easily predictable, so it is essential for the survival of a company to have “redundant” resources, able to operate strategies and proactive behavior. It’s important to be flexible and adapt better to the changes that are imposed by external or even internal conditions. More than on flexibility, it is necessary to focus on the concept of Resilience, which requires the ability to remain calm, to address a crisis, but maybe leave it weakened but with the strength, the ability and the confidence to create a tomorrow of own business, adapting to change

System Dynamics Approach to model a Hybrid Manufacturing System

The aim of this work is to create a simulation model of a manufacturing system operating within the supply chain by system dynamics approach heeding dynamics of system-company and factors that may affect performance, so that management can have a useful tool for decision support. The results have shown interesting correlations between management choices and the system outputs

NEW FORMALISM FOR PRODUCTION SYSTEMS MODELING

This paper aims to highlight the usefulness of the simulation, analyzing in particular, two simulative techniques: the Discrete Event Simulation and the System Dynamics. The main objective is to propose a simulation methodology to use to model, analyze and control any type of system. This approach is supported by three studies, belonging to different sectors, which demonstrate the utility of adopting a simple and common scheme of analysis

A decision support tool, implemented in a system dynamics model, to improve the effectiveness in the hospital emergency department

The emergency department of a hospital is, among all areas in which lean policies are focused, the one that has received the most attention. The emergency room, in fact, plays a vital role in providing primary care to patients and is also recognized for the contribution it gives to society. The important results in terms of cost savings and improving the flow due to the reduction of the waiting time of the patients, obtained from major international hospitals, were crucial to assess whether it was possible and useful to implement similar improvements in Italy, certainly not without to many problems in the provision of health services. This paper explores what can be improved for the department to be more efficient, using simulation techniques based on dynamic and continuous logics (system dynamics)

Coincident onset of multiple sclerosis and herpes simplex virus 1 encephalitis. a case report

Background: Along with vitamin D, smoking, body mass index and others, Epstein Barr virus, other herpesviruses and human endogenous retroviruses represent plausible environmental risk factors for multiple sclerosis. However, it is difficult to obtain direct proof of their involvement in the etiology of this condition. Case presentation: In order to contribute further evidence of the importance of these viruses, and speculate about disease-relevant interactions between these agents and a predisposed genetic background of the host, we describe the temporal association between multiple sclerosis onset and Herpes simplex 1-encephalitis in a female patient. Conclusions: This case illustrates a possible relationship between HSV-1 encephalitis and multiple sclerosis. Bearing in mind that association does not imply causation, some speculations about the etiology and pathophysiology of the two diseases can be made. The hypothesis of a genetic background predisposing to HSV-1 encephalitis and to immune-mediated demyelination is supported by the coincidence of the two conditions in this patient, along with data from animal models and genetic studies

Cocaine contamination in pubic hair: Analysis of the decontamination method

Abstract Even if pubic hair represents a reliable and widely accepted alternative hair matrix to identify drug abusers, it might produce false positive results due to external contamination. The aim of this study was to verify whether the external contamination of pubic hair with cocaine could influence the discrimination between active users and false positive subjects. The analysis was performed on in vivo and in vitro samples; the contamination was carried out by rubbing pubic hair with cocaine hydrochloride contaminated hands for three consecutive days. Five days after the beginning of the contamination, the pubic hair was collected and analysed at different times for two months. Data from our studies show that all in vivo samples yielded false positives; the in vitro samples were negative only for 10 days and then yielded false positives

Fulminant ischemic colitis with a fatal outcome after cocaine snorting: Case report and literature review

Abstract Snorting represents the most common route of administration for recreational powdered cocaine, and it is considered less dangerous than other routes of intake (i.e., intravenous; crack inhalation; etc.). A case of fulminant ischemic colitis with a fatal outcome, which occurred in a 19-year-old man after cocaine snorting, is presented in this report. Although several cases are reported in the literature, no one has involved people aged less than 20 years. The young man showed unspecific symptoms, which began about 2 h after the cocaine intake and the physicians were unable to make the diagnosis. This report may assist doctors treating young men who have consumed cocaine to consider this possible complication in all young adults (teenagers) in the presence of unspecific symptoms