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Trends and the course of liver cirrhosis and its complications in Germany: Nationwide population-based study (2005 to 2018)

Background: Cirrhosis is known to have a high prevalence and mortality worldwide. However, in Europe, the epidemiology of cirrhosis is possibly undergoing demographic changes, and etiologies may have changed due to improvements in standard of care. The aim of this population-based study was to analyze the trends and the course of liver cirrhosis and its complications in recent years in Germany. Methods: We analyzed the data of all hospital admissions in Germany within diagnosis-related groups from 2005 to 2018. The diagnostic records of cirrhosis and other categories of diseases were based on ICD-10-GM codes. The primary outcome measurement was in-hospital mortality. Trends were analyzed through Poisson regression of annual number of admissions. The impact of cirrhosis on overall in-hospital mortality were assessed through the multivariate multilevel logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities. Findings: Of the 248,085,936 admissions recorded between 2005 and 2018, a total of 2,302,171(0•94%) were admitted with the diagnosis of cirrhosis, mainly as a comorbidity. Compared with other chronic diseases, patients admitted with cirrhosis were younger, mainly male and had the highest in-hospital mortality rate. Diagnosis of cirrhosis was an independent risk factor of in-hospital mortality with the highest odds ratio (OR:6•2[95%CI:6.1-6•3]) among all diagnoses. The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease has increased four times from 2005 to 2018, while alcoholic cirrhosis is 20 times than other etiologies. Bleeding was found to be decreasing over time, but ascites remained the most common complication and was increasing. Interpretation: This nationwide study demonstrates that cirrhosis represents a considerable healthcare burden, as shown by the increasing in-hospital mortality, also in combination with other chronic diseases. Alcohol-related cirrhosis and complications are on the rise. More resources and better management strategies are warranted

Pulmonary impairment independently determines mortality in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims: In ACLF patients, an adequate risk stratification is essential, especially for liver transplant allocation, since ACLF is associated with high short-term mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF score is the best prognostic model to predict outcome in ACLF patients. While lung failure is generally regarded as signum malum in ICU care, this study aims to evaluate and quantify the role of pulmonary impairment on outcome in ACLF patients. Methods: In this retrospective study, 498 patients with liver cirrhosis and admission to IMC/ICU were included. ACLF was defined according to EASL-CLIF criteria. Pulmonary impairment was classified into three groups: unimpaired ventilation, need for mechanical ventilation and defined pulmonary failure. These factors were analysed in different cohorts, including a propensity score-matched ACLF cohort. Results: Mechanical ventilation and pulmonary failure were identified as independent risk factors for increased short-term mortality. In matched ACLF patients, the presence of pulmonary failure showed the highest 28-day mortality (83.7%), whereas mortality rates in ACLF with mechanical ventilation (67.3%) and ACLF without pulmonary impairment (38.8%) were considerably lower (p < .001). Especially in patients with pulmonary impairment, the CLIF-C ACLF score showed poor predictive accuracy. Adjusting the CLIF-C ACLF score for the grade of pulmonary impairment improved the prediction significantly. Conclusions: This study highlights that not only pulmonary failure but also mechanical ventilation is associated with worse prognosis in ACLF patients. The grade of pulmonary impairment should be considered in the risk assessment in ACLF patients. The new score may be useful in the selection of patients for liver transplantation