Modelling Driver Interdependent Behaviour in Agent-Based Traffic Simulations for Disaster Management

Accurate modelling of driver behaviour in evacuations is vitally important in creating realistic training environments for disaster management. However, few current models have satisfactorily incorporated the variety of factors that affect driver behaviour. In particular, the interdependence of driver behaviours is often seen in real-world evacuations, but is not represented in current state-of-the art traffic simulators. To address this shortcoming, we present an agent-based behaviour model based on the social forces model of crowds. Our model uses utility-based path trees to represent the forces which affect a driver's decisions. We demonstrate, by using a metric of route similarity, that our model is able to reproduce the real-life evacuation behaviour whereby drivers follow the routes taken by others. The model is compared to the two most commonly used route choice algorithms, that of quickest route and real-time re-routing, on three road networks: an artificial "ladder" network, and those of Lousiana, USA and Southampton, UK. When our route choice forces model is used our measure of route similarity increases by 21%-93%. Furthermore, a qualitative comparison demonstrates that the model can reproduce patterns of behaviour observed in the 2005 evacuation of the New Orleans area during Hurricane Katrina

Self-Organized Routing For Wireless Micro-Sensor Networks

In this paper we develop an energy-aware self-organized routing algorithm for the networking of simple battery-powered wireless micro-sensors (as found, for example, in security or environmental monitoring applications). In these networks, the battery life of individual sensors is typically limited by the power required to transmit their data to a receiver or sink. Thus effective network routing algorithms allow us to reduce this power and extend both the lifetime and the coverage of the sensor network as a whole. However, implementing such routing algorithms with a centralized controller is undesirable due to the physical distribution of the sensors, their limited localization ability and the dynamic nature of such networks (given that sensors may fail, move or be added at any time and the communication links between sensors are subject to noise and interference). Against this background, we present a distributed mechanism that enables individual sensors to follow locally selfish strategies, which, in turn, result in the self-organization of a routing network with desirable global properties. We show that our mechanism performs close to the optimal solution (as computed by a centralized optimizer), it deals adaptively with changing sensor numbers and topology, and it extends the useful life of the network by a factor of three over the traditional approach

Agent-based Traffic Operator Training Environments for Evacuation Scenarios

Realistic simulation environments play a vital role in the effective training of traffic controllers to respond to large-scale events such as natural disasters or terrorist threats. BAE SYSTEMS is developing a training environment that comprises of: a physical traffic control centre environment, a 3D visualisation and a traffic behaviour model. In this paper, we describe how an agent-based approach has been essential in the development of the traffic operator training environment, especially for constructing the required behavioural models. The simulator has been applied to an evacuation scenario, for which an agent-based model has been developed which models a variety of relevant driver evacuation behaviours. These unusual behaviours have been observed occurring in real-life evacuations but to date have not been incorporated in traffic simulators. In addition, our agent-based approach includes flexibility within the simulator to respond to the variety of decisions traffic controllers can make, as well as achieving a strong degree of control for the scenario manager

Weather Info For All – Towards an Agriculture and Climate Advisory Service

The goal of this report is to build on the Svenska PostkodStiftelsen supported study of the weather and climate information needs of small-scale farming and fishing communities (Awiti et al. 2012) to increase support for the development of agriculture and climate advisory systems and services for farmers. The Svenska PostkodStiftelsen study has been used to highlight the need for community engagement in the creation of effective climate services for farmers. The findings were shared with the World Bank, the Global facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and other development partners including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). And the results are now helping shape part of a World Bank Concept note on a Regional Program for African National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. The World Bank initiative builds on several programs, including the Integrated African Strategy on Meteorology1, the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)2 and the World Bank’s strategy for Africa3. The GFCS has four pillars – agriculture and food security, water, health, and disaster risk reduction. Building on the recommendations of the Svenska PostkodStiftelsen study (Awiti et al. 2012), the current report takes the next step to define the key components of an Agriculture and Climate Advisory Service that could be implemented in any African Country

Market-Based Task Allocation Mechanisms for Limited Capacity Suppliers

This paper reports on the design and comparison of two economically-inspired mechanisms for task allocation in environments where sellers have finite production capacities and a cost structure composed of a fixed overhead cost and a constant marginal cost. Such mechanisms are required when a system consists of multiple self-interested stakeholders that each possess private information that is relevant to solving a system-wide problem. Against this background, we first develop a computationally tractable centralised mechanism that finds the set of producers that have the lowest total cost in providing a certain demand (i.e. it is efficient). We achieve this by extending the standard Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism to allow for multi-attribute bids and by introducing a novel penalty scheme such that producers are incentivised to truthfully report their capacities and their costs. Furthermore our extended mechanism is able to handle sellers' uncertainty about their production capacity and ensures that individual agents find it profitable to participate in the mechanism. However, since this first mechanism is centralised, we also develop a complementary decentralised mechanism based around the continuous double auction. Again because of the characteristics of our domain, we need to extend the standard form of this protocol by introducing a novel clearing rule based around an order book. With this modified protocol, we empirically demonstrate (with simple trading strategies) that the mechanism achieves high efficiency. In particular, despite this simplicity, the traders can still derive a profit from the market which makes our mechanism attractive since these results are a likely lower bound on their expected returns

Intelligent Agents for Disaster Management

ALADDIN [1] is a multi-disciplinary project that is developing novel techniques, architectures, and mechanisms for multi-agent systems in uncertain and dynamic environments. The application focus of the project is disaster management. Research within a number of themes is being pursued and this is considering different aspects of the interaction between autonomous agents and the decentralised system architectures that support those interactions. The aim of the research is to contribute to building more robust multi-agent systems for future applications in disaster management and other similar domains

Optimal Design Of English Auctions With Discrete Bid Levels

This paper considers a form of ascending price English auction widely used in both live and online auctions. This discrete bid auction requires that the bidders submit bids at predetermined discrete bid levels, and thus, there exists a minimal increment by which the bid price may be raised. In contrast, the academic literature of optimal auction design deals almost solely with continuous bid auctions. As a result, there is little practical guidance as to how an auctioneer, seeking to maximize its revenue, should determine the number and value of these discrete bid levels, and it is this omission that is addressed here. To this end, a model of a discrete bid auction from the literature is considered, and an expression for the expected revenue of this auction is derived. This expression is used to determine both numerical and analytical solutions for the optimal bid levels, and uniform and exponential bidder’s valuation distributions are compared. Finally, the limiting case where the number of discrete bid levels is large is considered. An analytical expression for the distribution of the optimal discrete bid levels is derived, and an intuitive understanding of how this distribution maximizes the revenue of the auction is developed

Online mechanism design for electric vehicle charging

The rapid increase in the popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is expected to place a considerable strain on the existing electricity grids, due to the high charging rates these vehicles require. In many places, the limited capacity of the local electricity distribution network will be exceeded if many such vehicles are plugged in and left to charge their batteries simultaneously. Thus, it will become increasingly important to schedule the charging of these vehicles, taking into account the vehicle owners’ preferences, and the local constraints on the network. In this paper, we address this setting using online mechanism design and develop a mechanism that incentivises agents (representing vehicle owners) to truthfully reveal their preferences, as well as when the vehicle is available for charging. Existing related online mechanisms assume that agent preferences can be described by a single parameter. However, this is not appropriate for our setting since agents are interested in acquiring multiple units of electricity and can have different preferences for these units, depending on factors such as their expected travel distance. To this end, we extend the state of the art in online mechanism design to multi-valued domains, where agents have non-increasing marginal valuations for each subsequent unit of electricity. Interestingly, we show that, in these domains, the mechanism occasionally requires leaving electricity unallocated to ensure truthfulness. We formally prove that the proposed mechanism is dominant-strategy incentive compatible, and furthermore, we empirically evaluate our mechanism using data from a real-world trial of electric vehicles in the UK. We show that our approach outperforms any fixed price mechanism in terms of allocation efficiency, while performing only slightly worse than a standard scheduling heuristic, which assumes non-strategic agents

Convergent learning algorithms for potential games with unknown noisy rewards

In this paper, we address the problem of convergence to Nash equilibria in games with rewards that are initially unknown and which must be estimated over time from noisy observations. These games arise in many real-world applications, whenever rewards for actions cannot be prespecified and must be learned on-line. Standard results in game theory, however, do not consider such settings. Specifically, using results from stochastic approximation and differential inclusions, we prove the convergence of variants of fictitious play and adaptive play to Nash equilibria in potential games and weakly acyclic games, respectively. These variants all use a multi-agent version of Q-learning to estimate the reward functions and a novel form of the e-greedy decision rule to select an action. Furthermore, we derive e-greedy decision rules that exploit the sparse interaction structure encoded in two compact graphical representations of games, known as graphical and hypergraphical normal form, to improve the convergence rate of the learning algorithms. The structure captured in these representations naturally occurs in many distributed optimisation and control applications. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithms in a simulated ad hoc wireless sensor network management problem