The role of direct observation in predicting climatic change

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Ocean Analysis and Prediction (COAP) in Monterey, California, has assembled information to suggest how NOAA's facilities for observing the ocean and atmosphere might be applied to studies of paleoclimate. This effort resulted, indirectly, in several projects that combine direct observations of the ocean/atmosphere system with studies of past climate of the Pacific region. This article considers concepts that link the two kinds of investigations. It defines the thesis that direct observation of systems that generate paleoclimatic information is the nexus upon which understanding of climatic variability begins and upon which prediction of climate and global change depends

Solar-cycle modulations of ENSO: a possible source of climatic change

An association between long-term changes in the solar cycle and the frequency of El Niño events has been identified in historical records of El Niño and sunspot number. Although no known mechanism can explain the apparent relationship, the association is strong. A possible coupling between the sun and the ocean's mixed layer, involving ENSO, is worthy of further study

Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an ~1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, ~5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Nia, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks

Centennial oscillation of the climatic crescendo during the last glacial maximum: evidence from Lake Estancia, central New Mexico

Sediments deposited in late Pleistocene Lake Estancia, central New Mexico, contain a paleoclimatic record that includes the last glacial maximum and deglacial episode. Stratigraphic reconstruction of an interval representing the highstand of the lake that occurred during the last glacial maximum reveals ~2000-, ~600-, and ~200-year oscillations in lake level and climate. Shifting position of the polar jetstream in response to expansion and contraction of the North American ice sheet may be partly responsible for the millenial-scale changes in Lake Estancia but probably does not explain the centennial-scale oscillations

Carbon export and regeneration in the coastal upwelling system of Monterey Bay, central California

In order to quantify the role of coastal upwelling regions as source or sink areas for carbon, the relationships between particulate organic carbon (POC) production, export, remineralization, and accumulation were examined in Monterey Bay from 1989 through 1992. During a normal upwelling year (1989–90), a high positive correlation (r = 0.91) is observed between biweekly primary production and POC export at 450 m. Primary production values range from 500 mgC m−2 d−1 during the winter, to 2600 mgC m−2 d−1 in the spring and summer upwelling months. Corresponding deep-water (450 m) POC fluxes vary from a minimum of 10 mgC m−2 d−1 in December, to 120 mgC m−2 d−1 in May. In contrast, the mid-1991 through 1992 data sets obtained during the \u2791–92 El Nino period, show a relatively poor correlation (r = 0.23) between productivity and carbon export. Calculated ratios of POC export to POC production (defined as e-ratios) display a trend for the three-year data sets in which the e-ratio values are greatest during periods of low productivity and decrease to minimal values when surface production is high. Upwelling-induced, offshore Ekman transport of organic matter and probable seasonal changes in the planktonic community structure are the mechanisms likely to be responsible for the e-ratio trends. Based on the data sets reported from this work, a simple box model of the annual export and regeneration of particulate organic carbon is presented for the Monterey Bay region. An appreciable advective and/or recycling “loss” from the euphotic zone of 362.8 gC m−2 y−1 is estimated, representing primarily algal material transported offshore and/or recycled within the upper 100 m of the water column. Annual mid-water (≈100– 450 m) and deep-water (\u3e450 m) POC remineralization rates of 71.8 gC m−2 y−1 of 7.2 gC m−2 y−1, respectively, are reported for Monterey Bay. The average POC rain rate to the underlying slope sediments is sufficient to satisfy reported benthic utilization requirements without invoking an additional input source of POC via deep lateral advection and/or the downslope movement of particulate material

Multiple-proxy lacustrine record of moisture transport over western North America from 24,000 to 12,000 YBP, Lake Estancia, New Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pluvial Lake Estancia in central New Mexico experienced large and rapid fluctuations in surface area and elevation during the build-up to and termination of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Due to continuous groundwater discharge, a minimum pool covering about 400 square kilometers was maintained in the central basin until about 12,000 years ago, ensuring a continuous depositional sequence even during low stands of the lake. ... The sensitive response to fluctuations in climate by several independent proxies at Estancia show that transport of Pacific moisture over western North America changed dramatically during the last Ice Age, perhaps comparable to the large and rapid changes in climate documented from high-latitude ice and North Atlantic marine sediments for the LCM and its transitions

Rapid δ18O and δ13C isotopic shifts in late Pleistocene marine varves on the California margin

Upper Pleistocene sediments on the continental slope off Northern California contain alternations of varves and bioturbation produced by fluctuations in intensity of the coastal upwelling system. Stable isotopic analyses of benthic Foraminifera across a particularly well developed varve/bioturbation sequence deposited ~26,000 years ago reveal rapid shifts of ~0.25‰ in δ18O and ~0.4‰ in δ13C. The δ18O shift occurs within a varved section. Based on varve counts, the isotopic change occurred in less than 100 years. Timing and magnitude of the shift coincide with similar shifts observed in almost all other high-resolution δ18O records that have been interpreted as primarily representing global in-volume fluctuations

Geochemical evidence for enhanced upwelling and organic productivity during the late Quaternary on the continental margin of northern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Laminated sediments are preserved in upper Pleistocene sections of cores collected on the continental slope at water depths within the present oxygen-minimum zone from at least as far north as the Klamath River and as far south as Point Sur. Comparison of sediment components in the laminae with those delivered to sediment traps as pelagic marine "snow" show the dark/light lamination couplets are indeed annual (varves). ... The presence of carbon-, sulfur-, and metal-rich sediments, as well as lack of bioturbation, all support the theory that the oxygen-minimum zone in the northeastern Pacific Ocean was more intense - in fact, anoxic - during the late Pleistocene in response to greater coastal upwelling and higher organic productivity

A rock-magnetic and geomagnetic secular variation record from late-Pleistocene Lake Estancia, New Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Exposed sediments of Late Pleistocene Lake Estancia contain a high resolution record of regional climate variability for the period about 12,000 to 32,000 years. A detailed rock-magnetic study is being performed on this well-dated, well-preserved sedimentary sequence to determine how the magnetic signature of sediments responded to regional climate change