A shapley value approach to pricing climate risks

This paper prices the risk of climate change by calculating a lower bound for the price of a virtual insurance policy against climate risks associated with the business as usual (BAU) emissions path. In analogy with ordinary insurance pricing, this price depends on the current risk to which society is exposed on the BAU emissions path and on a second emissions path reflecting risks that society is willing to take. The difference in expected damages on these two paths is the price which a risk neutral insurer would charge for the risk swap excluding transaction costs and profits, and it is also a lower bound on society's willingness to pay for this swap. The price is computed by (1) identifying a probabilistic risk constraint that society accepts, (2) computing an optimal emissions path satisfying that constraint using an abatement cost function, (3) computing the extra expected damages from the business as usual path, above those of the risk constrained path, and (4) apportioning those excess damages over the emissions per ton in the various time periods. The calculations follow the 2010 US government social cost of carbon analysis, and are done with DICE2009

Iron in Surface and Subsurface Waters, Grizzly Bar, Southeastern Alaska

Completion Report for Project A-019-ALAS to the Office of Water Resources Research, Department of the Interior, August 1972Atomic absorption spectrophotometric measurements for total iron were made on 69 samples of water from 8 different environments in an outwash fan built by meltwater streams from the retreating Norris Glacier on granodiorite bedrock. Norris Glacier ice contained no iron (3 samples), a subglacial stream contained 5.5 ppm Fe (1 sample), and a meltwater lake fronting Norris Glacier contained 0.7 ppm Fe (3 samples). Iron content of ground water from outwash ranged between 0.0 and 17.0 ppm (6 samples); surface streams fed by emergent ground water on the fan periphery contained 0.0 to 0.2 ppm Fe (13 samples). Taku Inlet waters contained 6.4 ppm Fe (3 samples). Subsurface water from an intertidal mud flat contained between 0.0 and 27.0, X 5.9, ppm Fe (31 samples). Surface and subsurface water from a bog and associated stream contained 1 ppm Fe (12 samples). Little exchangeable Fe was found. In situ measurements in water for Eh showed large positive values (+0.30 to +0.50 volts) and pH was slightly alkaline. The single most important source of iron was vermiculitized biotite. Iron was transported in water in the particulate state, except in outwash ground water where particulate Fe+3 was reduced to dissolved Fe+2. Iron deposits of Fe(OH)3 were found near the top of the outwash water table.The work upon which this report is based was supported in part by the funds (Proj. A·019-ALAS) provided by the United States Department of the Interior, Office of Water Resources Research, as authorized under the Water Resources Act of 1964, as amended

Effect of shaping sensor data on pilot response

The pilot of a modern jet aircraft is subjected to varying workloads while being responsible for multiple, ongoing tasks. The ability to associate the pilot's responses with the task/situation, by modifying the way information is presented relative to the task, could provide a means of reducing workload. To examine the feasibility of this concept, a real time simulation study was undertaken to determine whether preprocessing of sensor data would affect pilot response. Results indicated that preprocessing could be an effective way to tailor the pilot's response to displayed data. The effects of three transformations or shaping functions were evaluated with respect to the pilot's ability to predict and detect out-of-tolerance conditions while monitoring an electronic engine display. Two nonlinear transformations, on being the inverse of the other, were compared to a linear transformation. Results indicate that a nonlinear transformation that increases the rate-or-change of output relative to input tends to advance the prediction response and improve the detection response, while a nonlinear transformation that decreases the rate-of-change of output relative to input tends to lengthen the prediction response and make detection more difficult

Generalised Design Models For EMS Maglev

The paper presents a generic modelling approach for electro-magnetic suspension (EMS) systems which brings together both fundamental principles and specific design factors to provide generalised models that can be adapted for any application. Key system parameters and typical electro-magnetic design factors are used to produce practical models for EMS controller design

Tailoring Targeted Therapy to Individual Patients: Lessons to be Learnt from the Development of Mitomycin C

The modern era of targeted therapeutics offers the potential to tailor therapy to individual patients whose tumours express a specific target. Previous attempts to forecast tumour response to conventional chemotherapeutics based on similar principles have however been disappointing. Mitomycin C (MMC), for example, is a bioreductive drug that requires metabolic activation by cellular reductases for activity. The enzyme NAD(P)H:Quinone oxidoreductase-1 (NQO1) can reduce MMC to DNA damaging species but attempts to establish the relationship between tumour response to MMC and NQO1 expression have generated conflicting reports of good and poor correlations. Several other reductases are known to activate MMC. This, in conjunction with the fact that various physiological and biochemical factors influence therapeutic response, suggests that the mechanism of action of MMC is too complex to allow tumour response to be predicted on the basis of a single enzyme. Alternative approaches using more complex biological and pharmacological systems that reflect the spectrum of reductases present within the tumour have been developed and it remains to be seen whether or not the predictive value of these approaches is enhanced. With regards to targeted therapeutics, the experience with MMC suggests that prediction of tumour response based on analysis of a single target may be too simplistic. Multiple mechanisms of action and the influence of tumour microenvironment on cell biology and drug delivery are likely to influence the final outcome of therapy. The challenge for the future progression of this field is to develop assays that reflect the overall biological and pharmacological processes involved in drug activation whilst retaining the simplicity and robustness required for routine chemosensitivity testing in a clinical setting

A Microilluminator for the Study of the Infrared Spectra of Small Samples at Low Temperatures

An instrument is described which combines the functions of a reflecting microscope and a low temperature cell. It permits infrared absorption spectra to be obtained on single microcrystals at low temperatures, using polarized radiation

MPD thruster technology

The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: in house program elements; performance measurements; applied-field magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thruster performance scaling; MPD thruster technology; thermal efficiency scaling; anode fall voltage measurements; anode power deposition studies; MPD thruster plasma modeling; MPD thruster lifetime studies; and MPD thruster performance studies

MPD thruster technology

Inhouse magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thruster technology is discussed. The study focussed on steady state thrusters at powers of less than 1 MW. Performance measurement and diagnostics technologies were developed for high power thrusters. Also developed was a MPD computer code. The stated goals of the program are to establish: performance and life limitation; influence of applied fields; propellant effects; and scaling laws. The presentation is mostly through graphs and charts

The Polarized Infrared Spectrum of Potassium Bifluoride at –185°C

Observations on the reflection spectrum of potassium bifluoride have recently been reported [1] which appear to confirm the symmetrical linear structure of the bifluoride ion in this crystal. Some time ago absorption spectra of single crystals of KHF2 using polarized infrared radiation were obtained in this laboratory which both confirm this work and supplement it. Owing to the improved resolution of complex absorption regions which we obtained at low temperatures it seems worthwhile to present these results briefly. The spectrum is possibly unique in the wealth of combination and overtone bands which arise from a crystal of structure so simple that a detailed interpretation may be anticipated