Temporal trend and spatial analysis of the HIV epidemic in young men who have sex with men in the second largest Brazilian Amazonian province

After 40 years of its starting, the HIV epidemic in Brazilian Amazon region remains on an increasing trend. The young men who have sex with men (MSM) have been the most impacted by the HIV in the last decade. However, much more than attributing the risk behavior to HIV uniquely to the individual, behaviors are shaped by social determinants of health (SDH). Despite the problem, there is a scarcity of studies evaluating the impact of SDH on HIV among young MSM and none of them were done in the Northern of Brazil. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to analyse the HIV epidemic among Brazilian Amazonian young MSM using temporal trends and spatial analysis. We conducted an ecological study using reported cases of HIV/AIDS in young MSM living in Pará, the second larger Brazilian Amazonian province, between 2007 and 2018. Data were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. For the temporal analysis, we employed a Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess Forecasting model (STLF), which is a hybrid time-series forecast model, that combines the Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting model with the Seasonal-Trend by Loess (STL) decomposition method. For the spatial analysis, Moran’s spatial autocorrelation, spatial scan, and spatial regression techniques were used

AIDS-related mortality in Pará Province, Brazilian Amazon region: Spatial and temporal analysis.

Despite considerable therapeutic advances in the care of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and an overall reduction of 47% in the AIDS mortality rate in the last decade, the AIDS-mortality rates remains high. The social determinants of health (SDH) have a direct influence on the dynamics of this phenomenon. However, changes in SDH caused by the implemented policies against HIV have been poorly investigated. Moreover, the Brazilian rainforest has had the highest and continuously increasing AIDS mortality rate in Brazil since the 1980s. In this study, AIDS mortality in a province of the Brazilian rainforest was examined by using temporal and spatial analyses.MethodsIn this ecological study, data from 2007 to 2018 were extracted from the Mortality Information System provided by the State Department of Public Health of Pará. For the temporal analysis, the integrated autoregressive model of moving average (ARIMA) and locally weighted polynomial regression (STLF) were used to forecast AIDS mortality from 2019 to 2022. For the spatial analysis, spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression (GWR) analyses were employed.ResultsThe samples consisted of 6,498 notifications for AIDS-related deaths. From 2007 to 2013, the AIDS mortality rates showed an upward trend, followed by a stabilization until 2018 and an upward forecasted trend from 2019 to 2022. High mortality rates and high-high clusters were found in economic pole municipalities. Furthermore, AIDS mortality risk was directly associated with per capita income and demographic density, except in the southwestern region of Pará, which exhibited an inverse association with population density.ConclusionAlthough the policies against HIV may have contributed to the stabilization of AIDS mortality rates from 2013 in Pará, the upward forecasted trend until 2022 raises an alert and concern to health authorities to provide reinforcement of the policies. The geographic variability of AIDS mortality promoted by SDH provides subsidies to health authorities to implement SDH-focused strategies for AIDS mortality reduction

Comparison of OLS and GWR models for the impact of SDH on the AIDS mortality rate in Pará between 2007 and 2018.

Comparison of OLS and GWR models for the impact of SDH on the AIDS mortality rate in Pará between 2007 and 2018.</p

HIV epidemic among Brazilian women who have sex with women: An ecological study

The influences of public policies fighting HIV among women who have sex with women is scarcely studied. This study aimed to analyse the time series of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, between 2007 and 2020, among Brazilian women who have sex with women, in order to evaluate the eect of Brazilian policies for fighting HIV in this subpopulation compared to women who have sex with men (WSM). This ecological study employed HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) new cases among women who have sex strictly with women (WSW), women who have sex with men and women (WSMW), and WSM reported to the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação from 2007 to 2020. Crude Brazilian and regional annual age-adjusted HIV/AIDS population-level incidence rates were calculated for WSW, WSMW and WSM. The rates were then analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. A total of 102,890, 757, and 1,699 notifications of WSW, WSMW, and WSM living with HIV/AIDS were reported during the study period, respectively. South Brazilian region had the greatest HIV/AIDS incidence rates among WSM and bisexual women while the North region had the greatest incidence among WSW. In the WSM population, the temporal trends showed at least one stable or an increasing trend period from 2007 to 2013 or 2014, followed by one decreasing trend in all Brazilian regions. While among the WSMW most of the regions had a stable trend period from 2007 to 2020, in WSW group most of the trends had only one decreasing period. The decreasing trends were faster in WSM than in WSW. These results suggest a low efficiency of Brazilian policies for fighting HIV among WSW and WSMW and show the necessity of implementing new policies specific to this populatio