Commentary on What do we know (and not know) about potential output?

Economic development ; Economic conditions

Technological Change, the Labor Market and the Stock Market

This paper presents a model in which a partially anticipated technological shock results, in the short-run, in lower investment and higher unemployment. Because of the expectation of future lower profits, the market value of existing firms --and the wages they pay-- decrease before the technology becomes available. When the new technology arrives, the market value of new firms rises, investment and average wages increase, but endogenous gradual adoption results in temporary wage dispersion among identical workers. The model shows that the factors that affect the rate of adoption of a new technology also influence the cross sectional dispersion of labor earnings among identical workers, and firms' market values. The predictions of the model seem to be broadly consistent with the U.S. experience of the last thirty years.

Modern business cycle analysis: a guide to the Prescott-Summers debate

Business cycles

A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth

Our aim in this paper is to exposit a convex model of equilibrium growth. The model is strictly in the Solow tradition. The model has two features which distinguish it from most other work on the subject. These are, first, that the model is convex on the technological side and, eecond, that fixed fatten are explicitly included. The difference between our model and the standard single sector growth model lies in the fact that the marginal product of capital does not converge to zero as the level of inputs go to infinity. Existence and characterization results are provided along with some preliminary analyses of taxation and international trade policies. It is shown that the long-run growth rate in per capita consumption depends, in the natural way, on the parameters describing tastes and technology. Finally, it is shown that some policies have growth effects while others affect only levels. It is demonstrated that in a free trade equilibrium with taxation national growth rates of consumption and output need not converge.

East Asia vs. Latin America: TFP and Human Capital Policies

(None)

Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Policy

In this paper we study how volatility in monetary policy affects economic performance in the presence of endogenously chosen information structures. To isolate the effects produced by the interaction of uncertainty in monetary policy and (possibly) asymmetric information, we consider a model in which in the absence of either one of these features the equilibrium would be efficient. The equilibria that we find, with volatility and asymmetry of information, are inefficient for two reasons: first, in some cases, economic agents fail to trade, even though it is always efficient to do so; second, to capture the rents associated with being informed, agents spend resources acquiring socially useless information. Thus, in addition to the more standard effects of volatile inflation, our model calls attention to two types of costs associated with monetary uncertainty: the cost of not trading, and the cost of allocating resources to wasteful activities. The model implies that if monetary policy is not volatile all agents are symmetrically informed and hence, the outcome is efficient. Alternatively, making policy transparent,' i.e guaranteeing that all agents share the same information, serves the same purpose.

"Frictions in financial and labor markets": a summary of the 35th Annual Economic Policy Conference

This article contains synopses of the papers presented at the 35th Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis held October 21-22, 2010. The conference theme was “Frictions in Financial and Labor Markets.” Leading participants in this field presented their research and commentary.Labor market ; Financial markets

Technology (and policy) shocks in models of endogenous growth

Our objective is to understand how fundamental uncertainty can affect the long-run growth rate and what factors determine the nature of the relationship. Qualitatively, we show that the relationship between volatility in fundamentals and policies and mean growth can be either positive or negative. We identify the curvature of the utility function as a key parameter that determines the sign of the relationship. Quantitatively, we find that when we move from a world of perfect certainty to one with uncertainty that resembles the average uncertainty in a large sample of countries, growth rates increase, but not enough to account for the large differences in mean growth rates observed in the data. However, we find that differences in the curvature of preferences have substantial effects on the estimated variability of stationary objects like the consumption/output ratio and hours worked.Business cycles - Econometric models ; Economic development

Inflation, growth, and financial intermediation

Inflation (Finance)

The growth effects of monetary policy

This article investigates the relationship between inflation and output, in the data and in standard models. The article reports that empirical cross-country studies generally find a nonlinear, negative relationship between inflation and output, a relationship that standard models cannot come close to reproducing. The article demonstrates that the models' problem may be due to their standard narrow assumption that all money is held by the public for making transactions. When the models are adjusted to also assume that banks are required to hold money, the models do a much better job. The article concludes that researchers interested in studying the effects of monetary policy on growth should shift their attention away from printing money and toward the study of banking and financial regulations.Economic development ; Monetary policy