Improved Regret Bounds for Tracking Experts with Memory

We address the problem of sequential prediction with expert advice in a non-stationary environment with long-term memory guarantees in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth [4]. We give a linear-time algorithm that improves on the best known regret bounds [26]. This algorithm incorporates a relative entropy projection step. This projection is advantageous over previous weight-sharing approaches in that weight updates may come with implicit costs as in for example portfolio optimization. We give an algorithm to compute this projection step in linear time, which may be of independent interest

Do patients who die from an alcohol-related condition ‘drift’ into areas of greater deprivation? Alcohol-related mortality and health selection theory in Scotland

Background: Health selection has been proposed to explain the patterning of alcohol-related mortality by area deprivation. This study investigated whether persons who die from alcohol-related conditions are more likely to experience social drift than those who die from other causes. Methods: Deaths recorded in Scotland (2013, >21 years) were coded as ‘alcohol-related’ or ‘other’ and by deprivation decile of residence at death. Acute hospital admissions data from 1996 to 2012 were used to provide premortality deprivation data. χ² tests estimated the difference between observed and expected alcohol-related deaths by first Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) decile and type of death. Logistic regression models were fitted using type of death as the outcome of interest and change in SIMD decile as the exposure of interest. Results: Of 47 012 deaths, 1458 were alcohol-related. Upward and downward mobility was observed for both types of death. An estimated 31 more deaths than expected were classified ‘alcohol-related’ among cases whose deprivation score decreased, while 204 more deaths than expected were classified ‘alcohol-related’ among cases whose initial deprivation ranking was in the four most deprived deciles. Becoming more deprived and first deprivation category were both associated with increased odds of type of death being alcohol-related after adjusting for confounders. Conclusion: This study suggests that health selection appears to contribute less to the deprivation gradient in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland than an individual’s initial area deprivation category

Evaluating the impact of the Alcohol Act on off-trade alcohol sales: a natural experiment in Scotland

<b>Background and aims</b> A ban on multi-buy discounts of off-trade alcohol was introduced as part of the Alcohol Act in Scotland in October 2011. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of this legislation on alcohol sales, which provide the best indicator of population consumption.<p></p> <b>Design Setting and Participants</b> Interrupted time-series regression was used to assess the impact of the Alcohol Act on alcohol sales among off-trade retailers in Scotland. Models accounted for underlying seasonal and secular trends and were adjusted for disposable income, alcohol prices and substitution effects. Data for off-trade retailers in England and Wales combined (EW) provided a control group.<p></p> <b>Measurements</b> Weekly data on the volume of pure alcohol sold by off-trade retailers in Scotland and EW between January 2009 and September 2012.<p></p> <b>Findings</b> The introduction of the legislation was associated with a 2.6% (95% CI -5.3 to 0.2%, P = 0.07) decrease in off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland, but not in EW (-0.5%, -4.6 to 3.9%, P = 0.83). A statistically significant reduction was observed in Scotland when EW sales were adjusted for in the analysis (-1.7%, -3.1 to -0.3%, P = 0.02). The decline in Scotland was driven by reduced off-trade sales of wine (-4.0%, -5.4 to -2.6%, P < 0.001) and pre-mixed beverages (-8.5%, -12.7 to -4.1%, P < 0.001). There were no associated changes in other drink types in Scotland, or in sales of any drink type in EW.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> The introduction of the Alcohol Act in Scotland in 2011 was associated with a decrease in total off-trade alcohol sales in Scotland, largely driven by reduced off-trade wine sales

OPTIC: Orbiting Plutonian Topographic Image Craft Proposal for an Unmanned Mission to Pluto

The proposal for an unmanned probe to Pluto is presented and described. The Orbiting Plutonian Topographic Image Craft's (OPTIC's) trip will take twenty years and after its arrival, will begin its data collection which includes image and radar mapping, surface spectral analysis, and magnetospheric studies. This probe's design was developed based on the request for proposal of an unmanned probe to Pluto requirements. The distinct problems which an orbiter causes for each subsystem of the craft are discussed. The final design revolved around two important factors: (1) the ability to collect and return the maximum quantity of information on the Plutonian system; and (2) the weight limitations which the choice of an orbiting craft implied. The velocity requirements of this type of mission severely limited the weight available for mission execution-owing to the large portion of overall weight required as fuel to fly the craft with present technology. The topics covered include: (1) scientific instrumentation; (2) mission management; (3) power and propulsion; (4) attitude and articulation control; (5) structural subsystems; and (6) command, control, and communication

Synthetic control methodology as a tool for evaluating population-level health interventions

Background: Many public health interventions cannot be evaluated using randomised controlled trials so they rely on the assessment of observational data. Techniques for evaluating public health interventions using observational data include interrupted time series analysis, panel data regression-based approaches, regression discontinuity and instrumental variable approaches. The inclusion of a counterfactual improves causal inference for approaches based on time series analysis, but the selection of a suitable counterfactual or control area can be problematic. The synthetic control method builds a counterfactual using a weighted combination of potential control units. Methods: We explain the synthetic control method, summarise its use in health research to date, set out its advantages, assumptions and limitations and describe its implementation through a case study of life expectancy following German reunification. Results: Advantages of the synthetic control method are that it offers an approach suitable when there is a small number of treated units and control units and it does not rely on parallel preimplementation trends like difference in difference methods. The credibility of the result relies on achieving a good preimplementation fit for the outcome of interest between treated unit and synthetic control. If a good preimplementation fit is established over an extended period of time, a discrepancy in the outcome variable following the intervention can be interpreted as an intervention effect. It is critical that the synthetic control is built from a pool of potential controls that are similar to the treated unit. There is currently no consensus on what constitutes a ‘good fit’ or how to judge similarity. Traditional statistical inference is not appropriate with this approach, although alternatives are available. From our review, we noted that the synthetic control method has been underused in public health. Conclusions: Synthetic control methods are a valuable addition to the range of approaches for evaluating public health interventions when randomisation is impractical. They deserve to be more widely applied, ideally in combination with other methods so that the dependence of findings on particular assumptions can be assessed

Effects of In-Season Velocity- Versus Percentage-Based Training in Academy Rugby League Players

Purpose: To compare the effects of velocity-based training (VBT) versus percentage-based training (PBT) on strength, speed and jump performance in academy rugby league players during a 7-week in-season mesocycle. Methods: Twenty-seven rugby league players competing in the Super League U19s Championship were randomised to VBT (n = 12) or PBT (n = 15). Both groups completed a 7-week resistance training intervention (2x/week) that involved the back squat. The PBT group used a fixed load based on a percentage of one repetition maximum (1RM), whereas the VBT group used a modifiable load based on individualised velocity thresholds. Biomechanical and perceptual data were collected during each training session. Back squat 1RM, countermovement jump (CMJ), reactive strength index (RSI), sprint times, and back squat velocity at 40-90% 1RM were assessed pre- and post-training. Results: The PBT group showed likely to most likely improvements in 1RM strength and RSI, whereas the VBT group showed likely to very likely improvements in 1RM strength, CMJ height, and back squat velocity at 40 and 60% 1RM. Sessional velocity and power were most likely greater during VBT compared with PBT (standardised mean differences [SMDs] = 1.8 to 2.4), whilst time under tension and perceptual training stress were likely lower (SMDs = 0.49 to 0.66). The improvement in back squat velocity at 60% 1RM was likely greater following VBT compared with PBT (SMD = 0.50). Conclusion: VBT can be implemented during the competitive season, instead of traditional PBT, to improve training stimuli, decrease training stress, and promote velocity-specific adaptations

What is Hacking’s argument for entity realism?

According to Ian Hacking’s Entity Realism, unobservable entities that scientists carefully manipulate to study other phenomena are real. Although Hacking presents his case in an intuitive, attractive, and persuasive way, his argument remains elusive. I present five possible readings of Hacking’s argument: a no-miracle argument, an indispensability argument, a transcendental argument, a Vichian argument, and a non-argument. I elucidate Hacking’s argument according to each reading, and review their strengths, their weaknesses, and their compatibility with each othe

SplicerAV: a tool for mining microarray expression data for changes in RNA processing

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Over the past two decades more than fifty thousand unique clinical and biological samples have been assayed using the Affymetrix HG-U133 and HG-U95 GeneChip microarray platforms. This substantial repository has been used extensively to characterize changes in gene expression between biological samples, but has not been previously mined <it>en masse </it>for changes in mRNA processing. We explored the possibility of using HG-U133 microarray data to identify changes in alternative mRNA processing in several available archival datasets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data from these and other gene expression microarrays can now be mined for changes in transcript isoform abundance using a program described here, SplicerAV. Using <it>in vivo </it>and <it>in vitro </it>breast cancer microarray datasets, SplicerAV was able to perform both gene and isoform specific expression profiling within the same microarray dataset. Our reanalysis of Affymetrix U133 plus 2.0 data generated by <it>in vitro </it>over-expression of HRAS, E2F3, beta-catenin (CTNNB1), SRC, and MYC identified several hundred oncogene-induced mRNA isoform changes, one of which recognized a previously unknown mechanism of <it>EGFR </it>family activation. Using clinical data, SplicerAV predicted 241 isoform changes between low and high grade breast tumors; with changes enriched among genes coding for guanyl-nucleotide exchange factors, metalloprotease inhibitors, and mRNA processing factors. Isoform changes in 15 genes were associated with aggressive cancer across the three breast cancer datasets.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using SplicerAV, we identified several hundred previously uncharacterized isoform changes induced by <it>in vitro </it>oncogene over-expression and revealed a previously unknown mechanism of EGFR activation in human mammary epithelial cells. We analyzed Affymetrix GeneChip data from over 400 human breast tumors in three independent studies, making this the largest clinical dataset analyzed for <it>en masse </it>changes in alternative mRNA processing. The capacity to detect RNA isoform changes in archival microarray data using SplicerAV allowed us to carry out the first analysis of isoform specific mRNA changes directly associated with cancer survival.</p

ESL Student Perceptions of VLE Effectiveness at a University in South Korea

The purpose of this study is to determine students’ perception of the advantages, effects on language skills, suggestions for improvement, and limitations regarding the use of a VLE (Blackboard) and their differences according to gender, year, number of Blackboard courses taken, and computer literacy. The respondents of this study were 686 randomly selected university students enrolled in English classes at the University of Suwon in South Korea. An adapted survey questionnaire consisting of 33 items was administered to the students. The Mean was used to determine the students’ perceptions in the four areas followed by t-test and ANOVA to determine the differences in the students’ perceptions. The results showed that the students had a somewhat disagree rating in the areas of Advantages, Language, and Limitations and somewhat agree rating in the area of Suggestions. Significant differences were found in the students’ perceptions in the four areas when grouped according to gender and computer literacy; a significant difference was found in the area of Limitations when grouped according to year; and no significant differences were found according to number of Blackboard courses taken