The future of the Saudi Arabian economy : Possible effects on the world oil market

Saudi-Arabia har vært godt utstyrt av natur når det gjelder oljeressurser. Dette har gjort det mulig for landets befolkning å nyte en levestandard som er høyere enn de ellers ville vært i stand til. Det finnes nesten ingen eksport utover olje, og innenlandsk tilgang på handelsvarer er svært lav. Innenlandsk etterspørsel holdes flytende av statsbudsjettene, men siden 1985/86 har statsbudsjettet og driftsbalansen vært i underskudd. Dette har begrenset regjeringens utsikter til politikkutforming. Økonomien har utviklet seg dårlig i løpet av 1990-tallet. BNP per innbygger har vært stillestående eller til og med fallende, og det har oppstått alvorlige finansielle ubalanser. Landet har en politisk og sosial struktur som sannsynligvis ikke er tilstrekkelig til å håndtere alvorlige økonomiske problemer som ikke kan unngås mye lenger. Dette kan føre til betydelige endringer i politikken, men også til endringer i regjeringen som er svært vanskelig å forutse. Denne studien fokuserer på alternativ økonomisk og politisk utvikling som kan forme fremtiden til Saudi-Arabia. Det første alternativet fungerer som vår referansesak. Det legges ikke til grunn store endringer i regjeringens politikk eller oljepolitikk. Sannsynlig eller ott, historiske trender videreføres. Det viser snarere at noe må gjøres på grunn av dårlige økonomiske resultater for landet som helhet. I det andre alternativet antar vi at Saudi-Arabia vil gå inn i VVTO, og vil derfor redusere subsidier, privatisere og innføre beskatning for å øke ikke-oljeinntektene på budsjettet. Det tredje scenarioet er mer dramatisk oljepolitisk. Mangel på midler tvinger regjeringen til å føre en mer aggressiv oljepolitikk i et forsøk på å unngå økonomiske ubalanser. Anerkjennelse: Dette prosjektet er finansiert av Norges forskningsråd (PETROPOL

Characterization of Pathogen Airborne Inoculum Density by Information Theoretic Analysis of Spore Trap Time Series Data

In a previous study, air sampling using vortex air samplers combined with species-specific amplification of pathogen DNA was carried out over two years in four or five locations in the Salinas Valley of California. The resulting time series data for the abundance of pathogen DNA trapped per day displayed complex dynamics with features of both deterministic (chaotic) and stochastic uncertainty. Methods of nonlinear time series analysis developed for the reconstruction of low dimensional attractors provided new insights into the complexity of pathogen abundance data. In particular, the analyses suggested that the length of time series data that it is practical or cost-eective to collect may limit the ability to definitively classify the uncertainty in the data. Over the two years of the study, five location/year combinations were classified as having stochastic linear dynamics and four were not. Calculation of entropy values for either the number of pathogen DNA copies or for a binary string indicating whether the pathogen abundance data were increasing revealed (1) some robust dierences in the dynamics between seasons that were not obvious in the time series data themselves and (2) that the series were almost all at their theoretical maximum entropy value when considered from the simple perspective of whether instantaneous change along the sequence was positive

Red Harvester Ant (Pogonomyrmex barbatus F. Smith; Hymenoptera: Formicidae) Preference for Cover Crop Seeds in South Texas

Harvester ants often selectively forage seeds, causing these ants to be viewed as pests in agricultural areas where they may forage on crop seeds. While little research has been done on harvester ant preferences for cover crop seeds, grower observations in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) suggest that ants may remove these seeds before germination. We examined red harvester ant (Pogonomyrmex barbatus F. Smith) preferences for cover crop seeds (fescue, oat, sunn hemp, radish, vetch, and wheatgrass) and the effects of a commonly used bacterial seed inoculant. We evaluated relative preferences using seed depots presented to colonies with no prior exposure to the selected seeds or inoculants. After 24 h, ants had removed oat and radish seeds at the same rate as the preferred wheatgrass control. Fescue, sunn hemp, and vetch seeds were less preferred. The bacterial inoculation of wheatgrass and radish seeds did not alter the removal rates. Further, ant removal of seeds in both trials was dependent on the month and temperature, indicating potential interactions of colony activity levels, availability of seeds in the seed bank, and the intensity of cover crop seed removal. Together, these data indicate that harvester ant foraging preferences and seasonal activity should be considered to help mitigate potential ant predation of cover crops via planting less preferred seeds and at times of lower ant foraging intensity

Effects of punctuated heat stress on the grapevine powdery mildew pathogen, Erysiphe necator

Grapevine powdery mildew, caused by the ascomycete Erysiphe necator, is a major threat to grapes worldwide. Despite its global impact on grape production, E. necator is sensitive to adverse environmental conditions, such as excess heat, free water and UV radiation. Using detached leaf co-culture assays, 3-d-old single colonies of E. necator were exposed to 1, 2 or 3 consecutive d of punctuated heat stress. While there was a consistent decrease in colony growth after a single heating event, there were little to no significant effects from subsequent heating events. Similar effects were observed on the latent period of the pathogen, with a large initial effect from the first heat treatment and small marginal effects from subsequent heat treatments. Erysiphe necator colonies growing on live pot-grown plants were affected similarly by consecutive heat stress events. These data suggest that E. necator is more adaptable to environmental stress than previously recognized

Refining the Enrolment Process in Emergency Medicine Research

Research in the emergency setting involving patients with acute clinical conditions is needed if there are to be advances in diagnosis and treatment. But research in these areas poses ethical and practical challenges. One of these is the general inability to obtain informed consent due to the patient’s lack of mental capacity and insufficient time to contact legal representatives. Regulatory frameworks which allow this research to proceed with a consent ‘waiver’, provided patients lack mental capacity, miss important ethical subtleties. One of these is the varying nature of mental capacity among emergency medicine patients. Not only is their capacity variable and often unclear, but some patients are also likely to be able to engage with the researcher and the context to varying degrees. In this paper we describe the key elements of a novel enrolment process for emergency medicine research that refines the consent waiver and fully engages with the ethical rationale for consent and, in this context, its waiver. The process is verbal but independently documented during the ‘emergent’ stages of the research. It provides appropriate engagement with the patient, is context-sensitive and better addresses ethical subtleties. In line with regulation, full written consent for on-going participation in the research is obtained once the emergency is passed

Recurrence patterns of locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma after 3D conformal (chemo)-radiotherapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To establish recurrence patterns among locally advanced head and neck non-nasopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients treated with radical (chemo-) radiotherapy and to correlate the sites of loco-regional recurrence with radiotherapy doses and target volumes</p> <p>Method</p> <p>151 locally advanced HNSCC patients were treated between 2004-2005 using radical three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy. Patients with prior surgery to the primary tumour site were excluded. The sites of locoregional relapses were correlated with radiotherapy plans by the radiologist and a planning dosimetrist.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Median age was 59 years (range:34-89). 35 patients had stage III disease, 116 patients had stage IV A/B. 36 patients were treated with radiotherapy alone, 42 with induction chemotherapy, 63 with induction and concomitant chemoradiotherapy and 10 concomitant chemoradiotherapy. Median follow-up was 38 months (range 3-62). 3-year cause specific survival was 66.8%. 125 of 151 (82.8%) achieved a complete response to treatment. Amongst these 125 there were 20 local-regional recurrence, comprising 8 local, 5 regional and 7 simultaneous local and regional; synchronous distant metastases occurred in 7 of the 20. 9 patients developed distant metastases in the absence of locoregional failure. For the 14 local recurrences with planning data available, 12 were in-field, 1 was marginal, and 1 was out-of-field. Of the 11 regional failures with planning data available, 7 were in-field, 1 was marginal and 3 were out-of-field recurrences.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The majority of failures following non-surgical treatment for locally advanced HNSCC were loco-regional, within the radiotherapy target volume. Improving locoregional control remains a high priority.</p

Multimodal cardiovascular magnetic resonance quantifies regional variation in vascular structure and function in patients with coronary artery disease: Relationships with coronary disease severity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) of the vessel wall is highly reproducible and can evaluate both changes in plaque burden and composition. It can also measure aortic compliance and endothelial function in a single integrated examination. Previous studies have focused on patients with pre-identified carotid atheroma. We define these vascular parameters in patients presenting with coronary artery disease and test their relations to its extent and severity.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>100 patients with CAD [single-vessel (16%); two-vessel (39%); and three-vessel (42%) non-obstructed coronary arteries (3%)] were studied. CAD severity and extent was expressed as modified Gensini score (mean modified score 12.38 ± 5.3). A majority of carotid plaque was located in the carotid bulb (CB). Atherosclerosis in this most diseased segment correlated modestly with the severity and extent of CAD, as expressed by the modified Gensini score (R = 0.251, P < 0.05). Using the AHA plaque classification, atheroma class also associated with CAD severity (rho = 0.26, P < 0.05). The distal descending aorta contained the greatest plaque, which correlated with the degree of CAD (R = 0.222; P < 0.05), but with no correlation with the proximal descending aorta, which was relatively spared (R = 0.106; P = n. s.). Aortic distensibility varied along its length with the ascending aorta the least distensible segment. Brachial artery FMD was inversely correlated with modified Gensini score (R = -0.278; P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, distal descending aorta atheroma burden, distensibility of the ascending aorta, carotid atheroma class and FMD were independent predictors of modified Gensini score.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Multimodal vascular CMR shows regional abnormalities of vascular structure and function that correlate modestly with the degree and extent of CAD.</p