Aging and Labor Force Participation: A Review of Trends and Explanations

The American population is aging rapidly. Persons 65 and over who now constitute about one-fifth of the population will constitute about two-fifths of the population by 2040. In addition, individuals are living longer. Yet the labor force participation of older Americans has fallen dramatically in recent years. This paper discusses this trend and the principal arguments put forth to explain it. The paper is in two parts. The first part reviews trends in labor force participation and associated trends in Social Security (SS) coverage, firm pension plan coverage, and other factors that are likely to be associated with the labor force participation trends, including demographics. The second part of the paper discusses the incentive effects of SS and retirement plans, with emphasis on firm pension plans.

A Search for Hydroxylamine (NH_2OH) toward Select Astronomical Sources

Observations of 14 rotational transitions of hydroxylamine (NH_2OH) using the NRAO 12 m telescope on Kitt Peak are reported toward IRC+10216, Orion KL, Orion S, Sgr B2(N), Sgr B2(OH), W3IRS5, and W51M. Although recent models suggest the presence of NH_2OH in high abundance, these observations resulted in non-detection. Upper limits are calculated to be as much as six orders of magnitude lower than those predicted by models. Possible explanations for the lower-than-expected abundance are explored

Mobilizing Public Will For Social Change

Examines the theory and strategies of "public will" campaigns and offers tangible criteria for their evaluation. It provides a rich inventory of strategies for use in mobilizing the public will through an integration of models of agenda building, social problem construction, issues management, social movements, media advocacy, and social capital. In addition, the paper provides cases and examples of public will campaigns directed at various social problems, along with criteria for evaluating these campaigns at various stages of a social problem's life cycle

Political Orientation and the Decision to Major in Economics: Some Preliminary Observations

Studies find that students major in economics for a variety of reasons. None, however, have examined students' political orientations as a possible factor in their choice of majors. Economics, as compared to other social sciences, tends to produce conservative policy recommendations. This pilot study explores whether more conservative students are attracted to economics. Our study found that men with conservative political leanings are more likely to major in economics and that male students in economics are more conservative than female students. Political orientation, however, does not appear to be a significant factor in the choice of a major for women.

Twisted Electromagnetic Modes and Sagnac Ring-Lasers

A new approximation scheme, designed to solve the covariant Maxwell equations inside a rotating hollow slender conducting cavity (modelling a ring-laser), is constructed. It is shown that for well-defined conditions there exist TE and TM modes with respect to the longitudinal axis of the cavity. A twisted mode spectrum is found to depend on the integrated Frenet torsion of the cavity and this in turn may affect the Sagnac beat frequency induced by a non-zero rotation of the cavity. The analysis is motivated by attempts to use ring-lasers to measure terrestrial gravito-magnetism or the Lense-Thirring effect produced by the rotation of the Earth.Comment: LaTeX 31 pages, 3 Figure

Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity Versus Predictive Validity

Empirical analysis often raises questions of approximation to underlying individual behavior. Closer approximation may require more complex statistical specifications, On the other hand, more complex specifications may presume computational facility that is beyond the grasp of most real people and therefore less consistent with the actual rules that govern their behavior, even though economic theory may push analysts to increasingly more complex specifications. Thus the issue is not only whether more complex models are worth the effort, but also whether they are better. We compare the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of three models of retirement -- "option value," dynamic programming, and probit -- to determine which of the retirement rules most closely matches retirement behavior in a large firm. The primary measure of predictive validity is the correspondence between the model predictions and actual retirement under the firm's temporary early retirement window plan. The "option value" and dynamic programming models are considerably more successful than the less complex probit model in approximating the rules individuals use to make retirement decisions, but the more complex dynamic programming rule approximates behavior no better than the simpler option value rule.

Why are Retirement Rates So High at Age 65?

In most data sets of labor force participation of the elderly, an empirical regularity that emerges is that retirement rates are particularly high at age 65. While there are numerous economic reasons why individuals may choose to retire at 65, empirical models that have attempted to explain the age-65 spike have met with limited success. Interpreted another way, while many models would predict a jump in the hazard rate at age 65, the magnitude of the spike indicates excessive response given the economic considerations that retirees typically face. This paper considers the puzzle of why retirement rates are so high at age 65 and explores a variety of explanations.