Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO

A new probabilistic clustering method, based on a regression mixture model, is used to describe tropical cyclone (TC) propagation in the western North Pacific (WNP). Seven clusters were obtained and described in Part I of this two-part study. In Part II, the present paper, the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature associated with each of the clusters are investigated, as well as associations with the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composite wind field maps over the WNP provide a physically consistent picture of each TC type, and of its seasonality. Anomalous vorticity and outgoing longwave radiation indicate changes in the monsoon trough associated with different types of TC genesis and trajectory. The steering winds at 500 hPa are more zonal in the straight-moving clusters, with larger meridional components in the recurving ones. Higher values of vertical wind shear in the midlatitudes also accompany the straight-moving tracks, compared to the recurving ones. The influence of ENSO on TC activity over the WNP is clearly discerned in specific clusters. Two of the seven clusters are typical of El Niño events; their genesis locations are shifted southeastward and they are more intense. The largest cluster is recurving, located northwestward, and occurs more often during La Niña events. Two types of recurving and one of straight-moving tracks occur preferentially when the Madden–Julian oscillation is active over the WNP region

Overview of the spectrometer optical fiber feed for the Habitable-zone Planet Finder

The Habitable-zone Planet Finder (HPF) is a highly stabilized fiber fed precision radial velocity (RV) spectrograph working in the Near Infrared (NIR): 810 - 1280 nm . In this paper we present an overview of the preparation of the optical fibers for HPF. The entire fiber train from the telescope focus down to the cryostat is detailed. We also discuss the fiber polishing, splicing and its integration into the instrument using a fused silica puck. HPF was designed to be able to operate in two modes, High Resolution (HR- the only mode mode currently commissioned) and High Efficiency (HE). We discuss these fiber heads and the procedure we adopted to attach the slit on to the HR fibers.Comment: Presented at 2018 SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation, Austin, Texas, USA. 18 pages, 25 figures, and 2 table

The incidence and clinical burden of respiratory syncytial virus disease identified through hospital outpatient presentations in Kenyan children

There is little information that describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated disease in the tropical African outpatient setting. Methods We studied a systematic sample of children aged <5 years presenting to a rural district hospital in Kenya with acute respiratory infection (ARI) between May 2002 and April 2004. We collected clinical data and screened nasal wash samples for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. We used a linked demographic surveillance system to estimate disease incidence. Results Among 2143 children tested, 166 (8%) were RSV positive (6% among children with upper respiratory tract infection and 12% among children with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). RSV was more likely in LRTI than URTI (p<0.001). 51% of RSV cases were aged 1 year or over. RSV cases represented 3.4% of hospital outpatient presentations. Relative to RSV negative cases, RSV positive cases were more likely to have crackles (RR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.34–1.97), nasal flaring (RR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.40–5.04), in-drawing (RR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.47–3.40), fast breathing for age (RR = 1.34; 95% CI 1.03–1.75) and fever (RR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.33–1.80). The estimated incidence of RSV-ARI and RSV-LRTI, per 100,000 child years, among those aged <5 years was 767 and 283, respectively. Conclusion The burden of childhood RSV-associated URTI and LRTI presenting to outpatients in this setting is considerable. The clinical features of cases associated with an RSV infection were more severe than cases without an RSV diagnosis

Electronic structure and ferroelectricity in SrBi2Ta2O9

The electronic structure of SrBi2Ta2O9 is investigated from first-principles, within the local density approximation, using the full-potential linearized augmented plane wave (LAPW) method. The results show that, besides the large Ta(5d)-O(2p) hybridization which is a common feature of the ferroelectric perovskites, there is an important hybridization between bismuth and oxygen states. The underlying static potential for the ferroelectric distortion and the primary source for ferroelectricity is investigated by a lattice-dynamics study using the Frozen Phonon approach.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Phys. Rev. B, in pres

Towards a developmental state? Provincial economic policy in South Africa

This paper explores the meaning of the developmental state for spatial economic policy in South Africa. Two main questions are addressed: do provincial governments have a role to play in promoting economic prosperity, and to what extent do current provincial policies possess the attributes of a developmental state? These attributes are defined as the ability to plan longer term, to focus key partners on a common agenda, and to mobilise state resources to build productive capabilities. The paper argues that the developmental state must harness the power of government at every level to ensure that each part of the country develops to its potential. However, current provincial capacity is uneven, and weakest where support is needed most. Many provinces seem to have partial strategies and lack the wherewithal for sustained implementation. Coordination across government appears to be poor. The paper concludes by suggesting ways provincial policies could be strengthened

Sharpening the predictions of big-bang nucleosynthesis

Motivated by the recent measurement of the primeval abundance of deuterium, we re-examine the nuclear inputs to big-bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). Using Monte-Carlo realization of the nuclear cross-section data to directly estimate the theoretical uncertainties for the yields of D, 3-He and 7-Li, we show that previous estimates were a factor of 2 too large. We sharpen the BBN determination of the baryon density based upon deuterium, rho_B = (3.6 +/- 0.4) * 10^{-31} g/cm^3 (Omega_B h^2 = 0.019 +/- 0.0024), which leads to a predicted 4-He abundance, Y_P = 0.246 +/- 0.0014 and a stringent limit to the equivalent number of light neutrino species: N_nu < 3.20 (all at 95% cl). The predicted 7-Li abundance, 7-Li/H = (3.5 + 1.1 - 0.9) * 10^{-10}, is higher than that observed in pop II stars, (1.7 +/- 0.3) * 10^{-10} (both, 95% cl). We identify key reactions and the energies where further work is needed.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures (epsfig), REVTeX; submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Persistent starspot signals on M dwarfs: multi-wavelength Doppler observations with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder and Keck/HIRES

Young, rapidly-rotating M dwarfs exhibit prominent starspots, which create quasiperiodic signals in their photometric and Doppler spectroscopic measurements. The periodic Doppler signals can mimic radial velocity (RV) changes expected from orbiting exoplanets. Exoplanets can be distinguished from activity-induced false positives by the chromaticity and long-term incoherence of starspot signals, but these qualities are poorly constrained for fully-convective M stars. Coherent photometric starspot signals on M dwarfs may persist for hundreds of rotations, and the wavelength dependence of starspot RV signals may not be consistent between stars due to differences in their magnetic fields and active regions. We obtained precise multi-wavelength RVs of four rapidly-rotating M dwarfs (AD Leo, G 227-22, GJ 1245B, GJ 3959) using the near-infrared (NIR) Habitable-zone Planet Finder, and the optical Keck/HIRES spectrometer. Our RVs are complemented by photometry from Kepler, TESS, and the Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) network of telescopes. We found that all four stars exhibit large spot-induced Doppler signals at their rotation periods, and investigated the longevity and optical-to-NIR chromaticity for these signals. The phase curves remain coherent much longer than is typical for Sunlike stars. Their chromaticity varies, and one star (GJ 3959) exhibits optical and NIR RV modulation consistent in both phase and amplitude. In general, though, we find that the NIR amplitudes are lower than their optical counterparts. We conclude that starspot modulation for rapidly-rotating M stars frequently remains coherent for hundreds of stellar rotations, and gives rise to Doppler signals that, due to this coherence, may be mistaken for exoplanets.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

A massive proto-cluster of galaxies at a redshift of z {\approx} 5.3

Massive clusters of galaxies have been found as early as 3.9 Billion years (z=1.62) after the Big Bang containing stars that formed at even earlier epochs. Cosmological simulations using the current cold dark matter paradigm predict these systems should descend from "proto-clusters" - early over-densities of massive galaxies that merge hierarchically to form a cluster. These proto-cluster regions themselves are built-up hierarchically and so are expected to contain extremely massive galaxies which can be observed as luminous quasars and starbursts. However, observational evidence for this scenario is sparse due to the fact that high-redshift proto-clusters are rare and difficult to observe. Here we report a proto-cluster region 1 billion years (z=5.3) after the Big Bang. This cluster of massive galaxies extends over >13 Mega-parsecs, contains a luminous quasar as well as a system rich in molecular gas. These massive galaxies place a lower limit of >4x10^11 solar masses of dark and luminous matter in this region consistent with that expected from cosmological simulations for the earliest galaxy clusters.Comment: Accepted to Nature, 16 Pages, 6 figure

Superposition of Weyl solutions: The equilibrium forces

Solutions to the Einstein equation that represent the superposition of static isolated bodies with axially symmetry are presented. The equations nonlinearity yields singular structures (strut and membranes) to equilibrate the bodies. The force on the strut like singularities is computed for a variety of situations. The superposition of a ring and a particle is studied in some detailComment: 31 pages, 7 figures, psbox macro. Submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

Morphological Variation Among Herring Gulls (Larus Argentatus) And Great Black-Backed Gulls (Larus Marinus) In Eastern North America

Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) and Great Black-backed Gull (L. marinus) morphometric data from various eastern North American locations was collected to examine the sources of variation in body size within and among geographic regions. For Herring Gulls, significant differences in all commonly taken measurements at local and regional scales were found. However, most of the variation in measurements was due to sex differences and the natural variance seen within local populations. Herring Gulls breeding in the Arctic did not show any evidence of being morphologically different from other groups. A discriminant function derived from a Newfoundland, Canada, breeding population of Herring Gulls successfully assigned the sex of birds in Atlantic Canada and Nunavut, Canada, further emphasizing that most of the variation seen is between sexes and not among local or even regional populations. It also indicates that the evitable variation introduced by inter-individual differences in measurements was insufficient to compromise the utility of the discriminant function. The correct classification rate was lower for Great Lakes breeding Herring Gulls, indicating that these birds have different morphologies than those of populations in easterly regions. In contrast, few differences and no clear geographic patterns were found in measurements for Great Black-backed Gulls. These results were consistent with recent genetic information, suggesting an older west to east radiation of Herring Gulls across North America and a lack of isolation among Great Black-Backed Gull populations