Realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution regional climate model

The realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in representing the underlying processes. In particular, if rainfall is more realistic in a climate model, there is greater confidence in its projections of future change. In this study, the realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution (1.5 km) regional climate model (RCM) is compared to a coarser-resolution 12-km RCM. This is the first time a convection-permitting model has been run for an extended period (1989–2008) over a region of the United Kingdom, allowing the characteristics of rainfall to be evaluated in a climatological sense. In particular, the duration and spatial extent of hourly rainfall across the southern United Kingdom is examined, with a key focus on heavy rainfall. Rainfall in the 1.5-km RCM is found to be much more realistic than in the 12-km RCM. In the 12-km RCM, heavy rain events are not heavy enough, and tend to be too persistent and widespread. While the 1.5-km model does have a tendency for heavy rain to be too intense, it still gives a much better representation of its duration and spatial extent. Long-standing problems in climate models, such as the tendency for too much persistent light rain and errors in the diurnal cycle, are also considerably reduced in the 1.5-km RCM. Biases in the 12-km RCM appear to be linked to deficiencies in the representation of convection

Manipulating In-House Designed Drug Databases For The Prediction Of pH-Dependent Aqueous Drug Solubility

Chemical, pharmacokinetic, and pharmacodynamics properties are available in the package inserts of every Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved prescription drug, including all available chemotherapy drugs. These inserts follow a specific format imposed by the FDA. Whether chemotherapy drugs are administered via the parenteral route or alimentary tract, a significant factor affecting their bioavailability, elimination, and consequently, the drug’s effectiveness and potency, is its state of aqueous solubility. Water solubility has always lent itself poorly to the different predictive and experimental measures employed in the determination of a useful quantitative assessment. In this project, we first built a chemical structure-based searchable database for 85 FDA approved chemotherapy drugs and then used Bio-Rad’s KnowItAll® Informatics suite to focus on the drugs pH-dependent water solubility prediction. We compared the predicted values for water solubility to the available values reported in the drug inserts, testing the practical utility and the predictive ability of our model in reporting such a clinically relevant, underreported pharmacokinetic parameter. A relational cancer drug database (MySQL) was created to further facilitate analysis and/or prediction of a chemotherapy compound’s missing pharmacokinetic properties.

Added value of high resolution models in simulating global precipitation characteristics

Climate models tend to overestimate percentage of the contribution (to total precipitation) and frequency of light rainfall while underestimate the heavy rainfall. This article investigates the added value of high resolution of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in simulating the characteristics of global precipitation, in particular extremes. Three AGCMs, global high resolution atmospheric model from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-HiRAM), the Meteorological Research Institute-atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM) and the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), each with one high and one low resolution configurations for the period 1998–2008 are used in this study. Some consistent improvements are found across all three AGCMs with increasing model resolution from 50–83 to 20–35 km. A reduction in global mean frequency and amount percentile of light rainfall (20 mm day−1) are shown in high resolution models of GFDL-HiRAM and MRI-AGCM, while the improvement in MetUM is not obvious. A consistent response to high resolution across the three AGCMs is seen from the increase of light rainfall frequency and amount percentile over the desert regions, particularly over the ocean desert regions. It suppresses the overestimation of CDD over ocean desert regions and makes a better performance in high resolution models of GFDL-HiRAM and MRI-AGCM, but worse in MetUM-N512. The impact of model resolution differs greatly among the three AGCMs in simulating the fraction of total precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile daily wet day precipitation. Inconsistencies among models with increased resolution mainly appear over the tropical oceans and in simulating extreme wet conditions, probably due to different reactions of dynamical and physical processes to the resolution, indicating their crucial role in high resolution modelling

Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global Climate Models

Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition (ET) in every ocean basin. Projected changes in ET frequency under climate change are uncertain and differ between basins, so multimodel studies are required to establish confidence. We used a feature-tracking algorithm to identify tropical cyclones and performed cyclone phase-space analysis to identify ET in an ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global model simulations, run at various resolutions under historical (1950–2014) and future (2015–50) forcing. Historical simulations were evaluated against five reanalyses for 1979–2018. Considering ET globally, ensemble-mean biases in track and genesis densities are reduced in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific when horizontal resolution is increased from ∼100 to ∼25 km. At high resolution, multi-reanalysis-mean climatological ET frequencies across most ocean basins as well as basins’ seasonal cycles are reproduced better than in low-resolution models. Skill in simulating historical ET interannual variability in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific is ∼0.3, which is lower than for all tropical cyclones. Models project an increase in ET frequency in the North Atlantic and a decrease in the western North Pacific. We explain these opposing responses by secular change in ET seasonality and an increase in lower-tropospheric, pre-ET warm-core strength, both of which are largely unique to the North Atlantic. Multimodel consensus about climate change responses is clearer for frequency metrics than for intensity metrics. These results help clarify the role of model resolution in simulating ET and help quantify uncertainty surrounding ET in a warming climate.All authors received financial support from the PRIMAVERA project (European Commission Horizon2020 Grant Agreement 641727) with data access via JASMIN (https://jasmin.ac.uk) supported by IS-ENES3 (Grant Agreement 824084). AJB also received support from National Environmental Research Council (NERC) national capability grant for the North Atlantic Climate System: Integrated study (ACSIS) program (Grants NE/N018001/1, NE/N018044/1, NE/N018028/1, and NE/N018052/1). KL received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through JPI Climate/JPI Oceans NextG-Climate Science-ROADMAP (FKZ: 01LP2002A). The authors are grateful to the editor and to three anonymous reviewers, whose recommendations improved this paper. AJB, PLV, RJH, and MJR conceived the study. Simulations were performed by MJR, ET, KL, CDR, and LT. Output data were managed by JS. MJR performed the cyclone tracking. BV computed the Eady growth rate. AJB undertook cyclone phase-space analysis and all other data analyses, figure preparation, and wrote the manuscript. All authors provided input in interpreting results and approved the final manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 13 autors/es: Alexander J. Baker, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin I. Hodges, Jon Seddon, Benoît Vannière, Rein J. Haarsma, Reinhard Schiemann, Dimitris Kapetanakis, Etienne Tourigny, Katja Lohmann, Christopher D. Roberts, and Laurent Terray"Postprint (published version

Technology to aid the analysis of large-volume multi-institute climate model output at a central analysis facility (PRIMAVERA Data Management Tool V2.10)

The PRIMAVERA project aimed to develop a new generation of advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate models. As part of PRIMAVERA, seven different climate models were run in both standard and higher-resolution configurations, with common initial conditions and forcings to form a multi-model ensemble. The ensemble simulations were run on high-performance computers across Europe and generated approximately 1.6 PiB (pebibytes) of output. To allow the data from all models to be analysed at this scale, PRIMAVERA scientists were encouraged to bring their analysis to the data. All data were transferred to a central analysis facility (CAF), in this case the JASMIN super-data-cluster, where it was catalogued and details made available to users using the web interface of the PRIMAVERA Data Management Tool (DMT). Users from across the project were able to query the available data using the DMT and then access it at the CAF. Here we describe how the PRIMAVERA project used the CAF's facilities to enable users to analyse this multi-model dataset. We believe that PRIMAVERA's experience using a CAF demonstrates how similar, multi-institute, big-data projects can efficiently share, organise and analyse large volumes of data.</p

Feedback of mesoscale ocean currents on atmospheric winds in high-resolution coupled models and implications for the forcing of ocean-only models

The repercussions of surface ocean currents for the near-surface wind and the air-sea momentum flux are investigated in two versions of a global climate model with eddying ocean. The focus is on the effect of mesoscale ocean current features at scales of less than 150 km, by considering high-pass filtered, monthly-mean model output fields. We find a clear signature of a mesoscale oceanic imprint in the wind fields over the energetic areas of the oceans, particularly along the extensions of the western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. These areas are characterized by a positive correlation between mesoscale perturbations in the curl of the surface currents and the wind curl. The coupling coefficients are spatially non-uniform and show a pronounced seasonal cycle. The positive feedback of mesoscale current features on the near-surface wind acts in opposition to their damping effect on the wind stress. A tentative incorporation of this feedback in the surface stress formulation of an eddy-permitting global ocean-only model leads to a gain in the kinetic energy of up to 10 %, suggesting a fundamental shortcoming of present ocean model configurations

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone model tracks in present and future climates

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics

Measurement of ventilation effectiveness and indoor air quality in toilets at mass gathering events

Mass gathering events were closed in 2020 to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These events included music concerts, theatre shows, and sports matches. It is known, however, that the long-range aerosol transmission of pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be reduced with sufficient ventilation indoors. This paper examines the risk of reopening these mass gathering events by measuring the CO2 concentration, as a proxy for ventilation effectiveness, at 58 events, with a specific focus on small enclosed spaces with short occupancy. Toilets (sanitary accommodation) are spaces that are densely and continuously occupied for short durations throughout the events, such as during theatre intervals or half-time at sports events. The results showed that the average air quality in toilets was good at most events. There were, however, considerable peaks in CO2 concentration of up to 3431 ppm in toilets at times when occupancy was presumed high, indicating that the risk of exposure to exhaled breath, which may contain virus-laden aerosols, is higher in toilets than elsewhere in the venue (although occupancy duration will be much lower). Recommendations are provided to encourage building designers and operators to be mindful of the ventilation strategies used in toilets given their occupancy and size

The Prrx1eGFP Mouse Labels the Periosteum During Development and a Subpopulation of Osteogenic Periosteal Cells in the Adult

The identity of the cells that form the periosteum during development is controversial with current dogma suggesting these are derived from a Sox9-positive progenitor. Herein, we characterize a newly created Prrx1eGFP reporter transgenic mouse line during limb formation and postnatally. Interestingly, in the embryo Prrx1eGFP-labeled cells become restricted around the Sox9-positive cartilage anlage without themselves becoming Sox9-positive. In the adult, the Prrx1eGFP transgene live labels a subpopulation of cells within the periosteum that are enriched at specific sites, and this population is diminished in aged mice. The green fluorescent protein (GFP)-labeled subpopulation can be isolated using fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) and represents approximately 8% of all isolated periosteal cells. The GFP-labeled subpopulation is significantly more osteogenic than unlabeled, GFP-negative periosteal cells. In addition, the osteogenic and chondrogenic capacity of periosteal cells in vitro can be extended with the addition of fibroblast growth factor (FGF) to the expansion media. We provide evidence to suggest that osteoblasts contributing to cortical bone formation in the embryo originate from Prrx1eGFP-positive cells within the perichondrium, which possibly piggyback on invading vascular cells and secrete new bone matrix. In summary, the Prrx1eGFP mouse is a powerful tool to visualize and isolate periosteal cells and to quantify their properties in the embryo and adult. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research

Evaluating surface eddy properties in coupled climate simulations with 'eddy-present' and 'eddy-rich' ocean resolution

As climate models move towards higher resolution, their ocean components are now able to explicitly resolve mesoscale eddies. High resolution for ocean models is roughly classified into eddy-present (EP, 1/4°) and eddy-rich (ER, 1/12°) resolution. The cost-benefit of ER resolution over EP resolution remains debated. To inform this discussion, we quantify and compare the surface properties of coherent mesoscale eddies in high-resolution versions of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 coupled climate model, using an eddy tracking algorithm. The modelled properties are compared to altimeter observations. Relative to EP, ER resolution simulates more (+60%) and longer-lasting (+23%) eddies, in better agreement with observations. The representation of eddies in Western Boundary Currents (WBC) and the Southern Ocean compares well with observations at both resolutions. However a common deficiency in the models is the low eddy population in subtropical gyre interiors, which reflects model biases at the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems and at the Indonesian outflow, where most of these eddies are generated in observations. Despite a grid spacing larger than the Rossby radius of deformation at high-latitudes, EP resolution does allow for eddy growth in these regions, although at a lower rate than seen in observations and ER resolution. A key finding of our analysis is the large differences in eddy size across the two resolutions and observations: the median speed-based radius increases from 14 km at ER resolution to 32 km at EP resolution, compared with 48 km in observations. It is likely that observed radii are biased high by the effective resolution of the gridded altimeter dataset due to post-processing. Our results highlight the limitations of the altimeter products and the required caution when employed for understanding eddy dynamics and developing eddy parameterizations