Improvement to the Prediction of Fuel Cost Distributions Using ARIMA Model

Availability of a validated, realistic fuel cost model is a prerequisite to the development and validation of new optimization methods and control tools. This paper uses an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with historical fuel cost data in development of a three-step-ahead fuel cost distribution prediction. First, the data features of Form EIA-923 are explored and the natural gas fuel costs of Texas generating facilities are used to develop and validate the forecasting algorithm for the Texas example. Furthermore, the spot price associated with the natural gas hub in Texas is utilized to enhance the fuel cost prediction. The forecasted data is fit to a normal distribution and the Kullback-Leibler divergence is employed to evaluate the difference between the real fuel cost distributions and the estimated distributions. The comparative evaluation suggests the proposed forecasting algorithm is effective in general and is worth pursuing further.Comment: Accepted by IEEE PES 2018 General Meetin

Investigating Effects of Tulathromycin Metaphylaxis on the Fecal Resistome and Microbiome of Commercial Feedlot Cattle Early in the Feeding Period

The objective was to examine effects of treating commercial beef feedlot cattle with therapeutic doses of tulathromycin, a macrolide antimicrobial drug, on changes in the fecal resistome and microbiome using shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Two pens of cattle were used, with all cattle in one pen receiving metaphylaxis treatment (800 mg subcutaneous tulathromycin) at arrival to the feedlot, and all cattle in the other pen remaining unexposed to parenteral antibiotics throughout the study period. Fecal samples were collected from 15 selected cattle in each group just prior to treatment (Day 1), and again 11 days later (Day 11). Shotgun sequencing was performed on isolated metagenomic DNA, and reads were aligned to a resistance and a taxonomic database to identify alignments to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene accessions and microbiome content. Overall, we identified AMR genes accessions encompassing 9 classes of AMR drugs and encoding 24 unique AMR mechanisms. Statistical analysis was used to identify differences in the resistome and microbiome between the untreated and treated groups at both timepoints, as well as over time. Based on composition and ordination analyses, the resistome and microbiome were not significantly different between the two groups on Day 1 or on Day 11. However, both the resistome and microbiome changed significantly between these two sampling dates. These results indicate that the transition into the feedlot—and associated changes in diet, geography, conspecific exposure, and environment—may exert a greater influence over the fecal resistome and microbiome of feedlot cattle than common metaphylactic antimicrobial drug treatment

Metabolomic Profiles of Multidrug-Resistant <i>Salmonella</i> Typhimurium from Humans, Bovine, and Porcine Hosts

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health threat, yet tools for detecting resistance patterns are limited and require advanced molecular methods. Metabolomic approaches produce metabolite profiles and help provide scientific evidence of differences in metabolite expressions between Salmonella Typhimurium from various hosts. This research aimed to evaluate the metabolomic profiles of S. Typhimurium associated with AMR and it compares profiles across various hosts. Three samples, each from bovine, porcine, and humans (total n = 9), were selectively chosen from an existing library to compare these nine isolates cultured under no drug exposure to the same isolates cultured in the presence of the antimicrobial drug panel ACSSuT (ampicillin, chloramphenicol, streptomycin, sulfisoxazole, tetracycline). This was followed by metabolomic profiling using UPLC and GC–mass spectrometry. The results indicated that the metabolite regulation was affected by antibiotic exposure, irrespective of the host species. When exposed to antibiotics, 59.69% and 40.31% of metabolites had increased and decreased expressions, respectively. The most significantly regulated metabolic pathway was aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis, which demonstrated increased expressions of serine, aspartate, alanine, and citric acid. Metabolites that showed decreased expressions included glutamate and pyruvate. This pathway and associated metabolites have known AMR associations and could be targeted for new drug discoveries and diagnostic methods

A Cautionary Report for Pathogen Identification Using Shotgun Metagenomics; A Comparison to Aerobic Culture and Polymerase Chain Reaction for Salmonella enterica Identification.

This study was conducted to compare aerobic culture, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), lateral flow immunoassay (LFI), and shotgun metagenomics for identification of Salmonella enterica in feces collected from feedlot cattle. Samples were analyzed in parallel using all four tests. Results from aerobic culture and PCR were 100% concordant and indicated low S. enterica prevalence (3/60 samples positive). Although low S. enterica prevalence restricted formal statistical comparisons, LFI and deep metagenomic sequencing results were discordant with these results. Specifically, metagenomic analysis using k-mer-based classification against the RefSeq database indicated that 11/60 of samples contained sequence reads that matched to the S. enterica genome and uniquely identified this species of bacteria within the sample. However, further examination revealed that plasmid sequences were often included with bacterial genomic sequence data submitted to NCBI, which can lead to incorrect taxonomic classification. To circumvent this classification problem, we separated all plasmid sequences included in bacterial RefSeq genomes and reassigned them to a unique taxon so that they would not be uniquely associated with specific bacterial species such as S. enterica. Using this revised database and taxonomic structure, we found that only 6/60 samples contained sequences specific for S. enterica, suggesting increased relative specificity. Reads identified as S. enterica in these six samples were further evaluated using BLAST and NCBI's nr/nt database, which identified that only 2/60 samples contained reads exclusive to S. enterica chromosomal genomes. These two samples were culture- and PCR-negative, suggesting that even deep metagenomic sequencing suffers from lower sensitivity and specificity in comparison to more traditional pathogen detection methods. Additionally, no sample reads were taxonomically classified as S. enterica with two other metagenomic tools, Metagenomic Intra-species Diversity Analysis System (MIDAS) and Metagenomic Phylogenetic Analysis 2 (MetaPhlAn2). This study re-affirmed that the traditional techniques of aerobic culture and PCR provide similar results for S. enterica identification in cattle feces. On the other hand, metagenomic results are highly influenced by the classification method and reference database employed. These results highlight the nuances of computational detection of species-level sequences within short-read metagenomic sequence data, and emphasize the need for cautious interpretation of such results

A Cautionary Report for Pathogen Identification Using Shotgun Metagenomics; A Comparison to Aerobic Culture and Polymerase Chain Reaction for Salmonella enterica Identification.

This study was conducted to compare aerobic culture, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), lateral flow immunoassay (LFI), and shotgun metagenomics for identification of Salmonella enterica in feces collected from feedlot cattle. Samples were analyzed in parallel using all four tests. Results from aerobic culture and PCR were 100% concordant and indicated low S. enterica prevalence (3/60 samples positive). Although low S. enterica prevalence restricted formal statistical comparisons, LFI and deep metagenomic sequencing results were discordant with these results. Specifically, metagenomic analysis using k-mer-based classification against the RefSeq database indicated that 11/60 of samples contained sequence reads that matched to the S. enterica genome and uniquely identified this species of bacteria within the sample. However, further examination revealed that plasmid sequences were often included with bacterial genomic sequence data submitted to NCBI, which can lead to incorrect taxonomic classification. To circumvent this classification problem, we separated all plasmid sequences included in bacterial RefSeq genomes and reassigned them to a unique taxon so that they would not be uniquely associated with specific bacterial species such as S. enterica. Using this revised database and taxonomic structure, we found that only 6/60 samples contained sequences specific for S. enterica, suggesting increased relative specificity. Reads identified as S. enterica in these six samples were further evaluated using BLAST and NCBI's nr/nt database, which identified that only 2/60 samples contained reads exclusive to S. enterica chromosomal genomes. These two samples were culture- and PCR-negative, suggesting that even deep metagenomic sequencing suffers from lower sensitivity and specificity in comparison to more traditional pathogen detection methods. Additionally, no sample reads were taxonomically classified as S. enterica with two other metagenomic tools, Metagenomic Intra-species Diversity Analysis System (MIDAS) and Metagenomic Phylogenetic Analysis 2 (MetaPhlAn2). This study re-affirmed that the traditional techniques of aerobic culture and PCR provide similar results for S. enterica identification in cattle feces. On the other hand, metagenomic results are highly influenced by the classification method and reference database employed. These results highlight the nuances of computational detection of species-level sequences within short-read metagenomic sequence data, and emphasize the need for cautious interpretation of such results

Use of Metagenomic Shotgun Sequencing Technology To Detect Foodborne Pathogens within the Microbiome of the Beef Production Chain

Foodborne illnesses associated with pathogenic bacteria are a global public health and economic challenge. The diversity of microorganisms (pathogenic and nonpathogenic) that exists within the food and meat industries complicates efforts to understand pathogen ecology. Further, little is known about the interaction of pathogens within the microbiome throughout the meat production chain. Here, a metagenomic approach and shotgun sequencing technology were used as tools to detect pathogenic bacteria in environmental samples collected from the same groups of cattle at different longitudinal processing steps of the beef production chain: cattle entry to feedlot, exit from feedlot, cattle transport trucks, abattoir holding pens, and the end of the fabrication system. The log read counts classified as pathogens per million reads for Salmonella enterica, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium spp. (C. botulinum and C. perfringens), and Campylobacter spp. (C. jejuni, C. coli, and C. fetus) decreased over subsequential processing steps. Furthermore, the normalized read counts for S. enterica, E. coli, and C. botulinum were greater in the final product than at the feedlots, indicating that the proportion of these bacteria increased (the effect on absolute numbers was unknown) within the remaining microbiome. From an ecological perspective, data indicated that shotgun metagenomics can be used to evaluate not only the microbiome but also shifts in pathogen populations during beef production. Nonetheless, there were several challenges in this analysis approach, one of the main ones being the identification of the specific pathogen from which the sequence reads originated, which makes this approach impractical for use in pathogen identification for regulatory and confirmation purposes

Use of Metagenomic Shotgun Sequencing Technology To Detect Foodborne Pathogens within the Microbiome of the Beef Production Chain.

Foodborne illnesses associated with pathogenic bacteria are a global public health and economic challenge. The diversity of microorganisms (pathogenic and nonpathogenic) that exists within the food and meat industries complicates efforts to understand pathogen ecology. Further, little is known about the interaction of pathogens within the microbiome throughout the meat production chain. Here, a metagenomic approach and shotgun sequencing technology were used as tools to detect pathogenic bacteria in environmental samples collected from the same groups of cattle at different longitudinal processing steps of the beef production chain: cattle entry to feedlot, exit from feedlot, cattle transport trucks, abattoir holding pens, and the end of the fabrication system. The log read counts classified as pathogens per million reads for Salmonella enterica,Listeria monocytogenes,Escherichia coli,Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium spp. (C. botulinum and C. perfringens), and Campylobacter spp. (C. jejuni,C. coli, and C. fetus) decreased over subsequential processing steps. Furthermore, the normalized read counts for S. enterica,E. coli, and C. botulinumwere greater in the final product than at the feedlots, indicating that the proportion of these bacteria increased (the effect on absolute numbers was unknown) within the remaining microbiome. From an ecological perspective, data indicated that shotgun metagenomics can be used to evaluate not only the microbiome but also shifts in pathogen populations during beef production. Nonetheless, there were several challenges in this analysis approach, one of the main ones being the identification of the specific pathogen from which the sequence reads originated, which makes this approach impractical for use in pathogen identification for regulatory and confirmation purposes

Investigating Effects of Tulathromycin Metaphylaxis on the Fecal Resistome and Microbiome of Commercial Feedlot Cattle Early in the Feeding Period.

The objective was to examine effects of treating commercial beef feedlot cattle with therapeutic doses of tulathromycin, a macrolide antimicrobial drug, on changes in the fecal resistome and microbiome using shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Two pens of cattle were used, with all cattle in one pen receiving metaphylaxis treatment (800 mg subcutaneous tulathromycin) at arrival to the feedlot, and all cattle in the other pen remaining unexposed to parenteral antibiotics throughout the study period. Fecal samples were collected from 15 selected cattle in each group just prior to treatment (Day 1), and again 11 days later (Day 11). Shotgun sequencing was performed on isolated metagenomic DNA, and reads were aligned to a resistance and a taxonomic database to identify alignments to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene accessions and microbiome content. Overall, we identified AMR genes accessions encompassing 9 classes of AMR drugs and encoding 24 unique AMR mechanisms. Statistical analysis was used to identify differences in the resistome and microbiome between the untreated and treated groups at both timepoints, as well as over time. Based on composition and ordination analyses, the resistome and microbiome were not significantly different between the two groups on Day 1 or on Day 11. However, both the resistome and microbiome changed significantly between these two sampling dates. These results indicate that the transition into the feedlot-and associated changes in diet, geography, conspecific exposure, and environment-may exert a greater influence over the fecal resistome and microbiome of feedlot cattle than common metaphylactic antimicrobial drug treatment

Resistome diversity in cattle and the environment decreases during beef production.

Antimicrobial resistant determinants (ARDs) can be transmitted from livestock systems through meat products or environmental effluents. The public health risk posed by these two routes is not well understood, particularly in non-pathogenic bacteria. We collected pooled samples from 8 groups of 1741 commercial cattle as they moved through the process of beef production from feedlot entry through slaughter. We recorded antimicrobial drug exposures and interrogated the resistome at points in production when management procedures could potentially influence ARD abundance and/or transmission. Over 300 unique ARDs were identified. Resistome diversity decreased while cattle were in the feedlot, indicating selective pressure. ARDs were not identified in beef products, suggesting that slaughter interventions may reduce the risk of transmission of ARDs to beef consumers. This report highlights the utility and limitations of metagenomics for assessing public health risks regarding antimicrobial resistance, and demonstrates that environmental pathways may represent a greater risk than the food supply