The Halloween Indicator is More a Treat than a Trick

This paper uses stock market returns (2007-2015) and confirms the existence of Halloween effect anomaly after the 2008 financial crisis. Findings suggest that the Halloween effect can still be observed in 34 out of the 35 countries. A more aggressive trading strategy of shorting the market during summer and taking a long position in winter yields 4.77% more than the buy-and-hold strategy. A new explanation is offered for the persistence of the Halloween effect. A positive feedback between investors’ belief and behavior causes the market to underperform in the summer and recover in the winter, resulting in a self-fulfilling prophecy

Subjective and objective indicators of recovery in severe mental illness: a cross-sectional study

Background: This study aimed to determine whether subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment are associated with self-report of more objective indicators such as level of participation in the community and income from employment. A secondary aim was to investigate the extent to which diagnosis or other consumer characteristics mediated any relationship between these variables. Methods: The Community Integration Measure, the Empowerment Scale, the Recovery Assessment Scale, and the Camberwell Assessment of Needs Short Appraisal Schedule were administered to a convenience sample of 161 consumers with severe mental illness. Results: The majority of participants had a primary diagnosis of schizophreniform, anxiety/depression or bipolar affective disorder. The Empowerment Scale was quite strongly correlated with the Recovery Assessment Scale and the Community Integration Measure. Participants with a diagnosis of bipolar affective disorder had signifi cantly higher recovery and empowerment scores than participants with schizophrenia or depression. Both empowerment and recovery scores were significantly higher for people engaged in paid employment than for those receiving social security benefits. Conclusions: The measurement of subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment has validity in evaluation of global recovery for people with severe mental illness. A diagnosis of bipolar disorder is associated with higher scores on subjective and objective indicators of recovery

Synchrotron Emission as the Source of GRB Spectra, Part II: Observations

We test the models of synchrotron emission presented in Part I of this series (Lloyd & Petrosian, these proceedings) against the distributions and evolution of GRB spectral parameters (particularly the low energy index, $\alpha$). With knowledge of the $E_{p}$ distribution and the correlation between $\alpha$ and $E_{p}$ presented in Part I, we show how to derive the expected distribution of $\alpha$ from fits to optically thin synchrotron spectra, and compare this with the observed distribution. We show that there is no difficulty explaining bursts below the ``line of death'', $\alpha < -2/3$, and that these bursts indicate that the spectrum of accelerated electrons must flatten or decline at low energies. Bursts with low energy spectral indices that fall above this limit are explained by the synchrotron self-absorption frequency entering the lower end of the BATSE window. Finally, we discuss a variety of spectral evolution behavior seen in GRBs and explain this behavior in the context of synchrotron emission from internal shocks.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the 5th Huntsville Symposium on Gamma Ray Burst

Gaussian Process Conditional Copulas with Applications to Financial Time Series

The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is assumed to be constant but this may be inaccurate when there are covariates that could have a large influence on the dependence structure of the data. To account for this, a Bayesian framework for the estimation of conditional copulas is proposed. In this framework the parameters of a copula are non-linearly related to some arbitrary conditioning variables. We evaluate the ability of our method to predict time-varying dependencies on several equities and currencies and observe consistent performance gains compared to static copula models and other time-varying copula methods

New upper bounds on the rate of a code via the Delsarte-MacWilliams inequalities

With the Delsarte-MacWilliams inequalities as a starting point, an upper bound is obtained on the rate of a binary code as a function of its minimum distance. This upper bound is asymptotically less than Levenshtein's bound, and so also Elias's

Journal of African Christian Biography: v. 1, no. 2

A publication of the Dictionary of African Christian Biography with U.S. offices located at the Center for Global Christianity and Mission at Boston University. This issue focuses on: 1. Bishop Josiah Kibira of Tanzania, Ecumenical Statesman. 2. Josiah Mutabuzi Isaya Kibira. 3. Josiah Kibira. 4. Recent Print and Digital Resources Related to Christianity in Africa

The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ghana

aid, fungibility, fiscal response, impulse response