Random Walks and Market Efficiency: Evidence from International Real Estate Markets

This study performs tests of the random walk hypothesis for international commercial real estate markets utilizing stock market indices of real estate share prices for three geographical regions: Europe, Asia and North America. The augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests and Cochrane variance ratio test find that each of these markets (as well as associated broader stock markets) exhibits random walk behavior. Moreover, a non-parametric runs test provides support for weak-form market efficiency in the real estate markets. In addition, Johansen-Juselius co-integration analysis reveals that all three markets appear co-integrated and share a common long-run stochastic trend. Results of co-integration analyses and vector error correction models suggest that diversification benefits through international real estate securities can only be achieved in the short run.

The Risk-Return Attributes of International Real Estate Equities

This paper examines the risk and return attributes of international real estate equities over the 1980-1988 time period. The empirical results indicate that international real estate equities offer higher returns as well as greater total and systematic risk than U.S.-based REITs. The results also indicate that international real estate equities are weakly positively correlated with the return on REITs. International real estate equities achieve higher values for both the Treynor and Jensen measures than either the S&P 500 Index or the World Equities Index. International real estate equities also outperform domestic real estate companies on a risk-adjusted basis. However, international real estate equities underperform the World Equities Index using the Sharpe Index which suggests that international real estate equities carry significant unsystematic risk.

Theory of Neutron Diffraction from the Vortex Lattice in UPt3

Neutron scattering experiments have recently been performed in the superconducting state of UPt3 to determine the structure of the vortex lattice. The data show anomalous field dependence of the aspect ratio of the unit cell in the B phase. There is apparently also a change in the effective coherence length on the transition from the B to the C phases. Such observations are not consistent with conventional superconductvity. A theory of these results is constructed based on a picture of two-component superconductivity for UPt3. In this way, these unusual observations can be understood. There is a possible discrepancy between theory and experiment in the detailed field dependence of the aspect ratio.Comment: 11 pages; uses REVTEX, APS and PRABIB styles; 2 Postscript figure files include

Review of Multi-Person Exposure Calls to a Regional Poison Control Center

Objective: Poisoning events, including exposures to hazardous materials, can involve multiple victims. Regional poison centers often are contacted in such events involving multiple victims. Methods: We searched our poison center database over a nine-year time period for all calls involving a poisoning event in which more than two people were exposed to the same substance. We then matched each product to the generic category used by the National Poison Data System. We analyzed this data to find the most frequent substances reported as primary substances in the multiple exposures. Results: We identified 6,695 calls between 2000 and 2008 that had more than two people exposed to the same substance. In these calls, 25,926 people were exposed (3.6 % of the 715,701 human exposure calls for this period). These calls involved 64 of the 67 NPDS substance group codes. Some substances were much more commonly involved than others. The top three categories causing the most exposures were Fumes/Gases/Vapors, Food Products/Food Poisoning and Pesticides. Of the patients exposed, 69.4 % were not followed due to minimal effects possible or judged as nontoxic, 0.3 % had major effects, 8.6 % had no effects, and 9.3 % had minimal to moderate effects. Eight people expired. Conclusion: Fumes, gases, and vapors make up the majority of multi-exposure calls. The overall mortality from multi-exposures, based on our data, is low. Analysis of these calls can help poison centers better understand these events and direct training. [West J Emerg Med. 2010; 11(3):291-293.

Evidence for Prevention of Death and Myocardial Infarction With Platelet Membrane Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa Receptor Blockade by Abciximab (c7E3 Fab) Among Patients With Unstable Angina Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Revascularization fn1fn1This study was supported by Centocor, Inc., Malvern, Pennsylvania.

AbstractObjectives. We sought to evaluate whether patients with unstable angina undergoing coronary intervention derive particular clinical benefit from potent platelet inhibition.Background. Plaque rupture and platelet aggregation are pathogenetic processes common to unstable angina and ischemic complications of percutaneous coronary intervention.Methods. Of the 2,099 patients undergoing a coronary intervention in the Evaluation of 7E3 in Preventing Ischemic Complications (EPIC) trial, 489 were enrolled with the diagnosis of unstable angina and randomized to receive placebo, an abciximab (c7E3) bolus immediately before the intervention or an abciximab bolus followed by a 12-h infusion. The primary end point was a composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI) or urgent repeat revascularization within 30 days of randomization. The occurrence of death, MI or any revascularization within 6 months was also assessed.Results. Compared with placebo, the bolus and infusion of abciximab resulted in a 62% reduction in the rate of the primary end point (12.8% vs. 4.8%, p = 0.012) among patients with unstable angina, due primarily to a reduction in the incidences of death (3.2% vs. 1.2%, p = 0.164) and MI (9% vs. 1.8%, p = 0.004). By 6 months, cumulative death and MI were further reduced by abciximab (6.6% vs. 1.8%, p = 0.018 and 11.1% vs. 2.4%, p = 0.002, respectively). The magnitude of the risk reduction with abciximab was greater among the patients with unstable angina than among other patients in the EPIC trial without unstable angina for the end points of death (interaction: p = 0.008 at 30 days, p = 0.002 at 6 months) and MI (interaction: p = 0.004 at 30 days, p = 0.003 at 6 months).Conclusions. The syndrome of unstable angina identifies patients who will experience particularly marked reductions in the risk of death and MI with abciximab during coronary intervention.(J Am Coll Cardiol 1997;30:149–56

Impact of Clopidogrel Pretreatment on Ischemic Complications of PCI among Bivalirudin-Treated Patients: Results from the EVENT Registry

Computational Infrastructure and Informatics Poster SessionBackground: Although clopidogrel (CLO) pretreatment benefits PCI patients with acute coronary syndromes, these benefits are less well-established among elective PCI patients—particularly when treated with the direct thrombin inhibitor (DTI), bivalirudin. The effect of timing of CLO pretreatment on ischemic complications in these patients is also unknown. Methods: We used data from the multicenter EVENT registry to assess the association of clopidogrel pretreatment (600 mg 2 hr pre-PCI, 300 mg 6 hrs pre-PCI, or 75 mg/d for 1 week) with PCI-related complications in patients undergoing elective PCI with a DTI as planned antithrombotic. The primary endpoint was the composite of in-hospital death or MI (peak CKMB > 3 x ULN). Results: Between 01/05 and 12/07, 3568 pts underwent elective PCI and 1913 (54%) received DTI as planned anticoagulant (37% diabetics, age 65±10 y). Clopidogrel pre-treatment was used in 923 (48%). There were no differences in in-hospital or 1 year ischemic or bleeding events in relation to clopidogrel pretreatment in both unadjusted and adjusted analyses (see Table). There was a trend toward lower rates of death or MI with earlier pretreatment, however [Odds ratios vs. no pretreatment: >1 week 0.48 (95% CI 0.08 - 2.73); > 6 h OR 0.69 (95% CI 0.11 - 4.45) and 2-6 h OR 0.77 (95% CI 0.18 - 3.31)]. Conclusion: Among unselected patients undergoing elective PCI with DTI as the planned anticoagulant, clopidogrel pretreatment was common, but was not associated with a reduced risk of ischemic complications

Systematic adjudication of myocardial infarction end-points in an international clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Clinical events committees (CEC) are used routinely to adjudicate suspected end-points in cardiovascular trials, but little information has been published about the various processes used. We reviewed results of the CEC process used to identify and adjudicate suspected end-point (post-enrolment) myocardial infarction (MI) in the large Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (Eptifibatide) Therapy (PURSUIT) trial. METHODS: The PURSUIT trial randomised 10,948 patients with acute coronary syndromes to receive eptifibatide or placebo. A central adjudication process was established prospectively to identify all suspected MIs and adjudicate events based on protocol definitions of MI. Suspected MIs were identified by systematic review of data collection forms, cardiac enzyme results, and electrocardiograms. Two physicians independently reviewed all suspected events. If they disagreed whether a MI had occurred, a committee of cardiologists adjudicated the case. RESULTS: The CEC identified 5005 patients with suspected infarction (46%), of which 1415 (28%) were adjudicated as end-point infarctions. As expected, the process identified more end-point events than did the site investigators. Absolute and relative treatment effects of eptifibatide were smaller when using CEC-determined MI rates rather than site investigator-determined rates. The site-investigator reporting of MI and the CEC assessment of MI disagreed in 20% of the cases reviewed by the CEC. CONCLUSIONS: End-point adjudication by a CEC is important, to provide standardised, systematic, independent, and unbiased assessment of end-points, particularly in trials that span geographic regions and clinical practice settings. Understanding the CEC process used is important in the interpretation of trial results and event rates

Disagreements between central clinical events committee and site investigator assessments of myocardial infarction endpoints in an international clinical trial: review of the PURSUIT study

BACKGROUND: Limited information has been published regarding how specific processes for event adjudication can affect event rates in trials. We reviewed nonfatal myocardial infarctions (MIs) reported by site investigators in the international Platelet Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable Angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (Eptifibatide) Therapy (PURSUIT) trial and those adjudicated by a central clinical events committee (CEC) to determine the reasons for differences in event rates. METHODS: The PURSUIT trial randomised 10,948 patients with acute coronary syndromes to receive eptifibatide or placebo. The primary end-point was death or post-enrolment MI at 30 days as assessed by the CEC; this end-point was also constructed using site-reported events. The CEC identified suspected MIs by systematic review of clinical, cardiac enzyme, and electrocardiographic data. RESULTS: The CEC identified 5005 (46%) suspected events, of which 1415 (28%) were adjudicated as MI. The site investigator and CEC assessments of whether a MI had occurred disagreed in 983 (20%) of the 5005 patients with suspected MI, mostly reflecting site misclassification of post-enrolment MIs (as enrolment MIs) or underreported periprocedural MIs. Patients for whom the CEC and site investigator agreed that no end-point MI had occurred had the lowest mortality at 30 days and between 30 days and 6 months, and those with agreement that a MI had occurred had the highest mortality. CONCLUSION: CEC adjudication provides a standard, systematic, independent, and unbiased assessment of end-points, particularly for trials that span geographic regions and clinical practice settings. Understanding the review process and reasons for disagreement between CEC and site investigator assessments of MI is important to design future trials and interpret event rates between trials

Optical Propagation and Communication

Contains an introduction and reports on three research projects.Maryland Procurement Office Contract MDA 903-94-C6071Maryland Procurement Office Contract MDA 904-93-C4169U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant F49620-93-1-0604U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant F49620-96-1-0028U.S. Army Research Office Grant DAAH04-95-1-0494U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant F49620-95-1-0505U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Grant F49620-96-1-0126U.S. Army Research Office Grant DAAH04-93-G-0399U.S. Army Research Office Grant DAAH04-93-G-018