nsolvency Experience, Risk-Based Capital, and Prompt Corrective Action in Property-Liability Insurance

In December 1992, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) adopted a life-health insurer risk-based capital (RBC) formula and model law that became effective with the 1993 annual statement filed in March 1994. In principle, well-designed RBC requirements can help achieve an efficient reduction in the expected costs of insolvencies. They can provide incentives for insurers to operate safely in cases where market incentives are weak due to government mandated guarantees of insurer obligations or asymmetries regarding solvency between insurers and buyers. RBC requirements also may facilitate or encourage prompt corrective action by solvency regulators by helping regulators to identify weak insurers and giving regulators legal authority to intervene when capital falls below specified levels. RBC requirements may force regulators to act in amore timely manner when confronted with external pressure to delay action. However, RBC capital requirements have a number ofpotential limitations. Unavoidable imperfections in any meaningful RBC system will likely distort some insurer decisions in undesirable and unintended ways. RBC requirements by themselves will do little or nothing to help regulators determine when an insurer s reported capital (surplus) is overstated due to understatement of liabilities or overstatement of assets. A well-designed RBC system should minimize costs associated with misclassification of insurers. The system should be able to identify a high proportion of troubled companies early enough to permit regulators to take prompt corrective action and should identify as troubled only a minimal proportion of financially sound insurers. This study analyzes data on solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers to determine whether modifications in the NAIC s RBC formula can improve its ability to predict firms that subsequently fail without substantially increasing the proportion of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail. It uses logistic regression models to investigate whether changes in the weight for the major components in the RBC formula and incorporation of information on company size and organizational form improve the tradeoff between Type I error rates (the percentage of insurers that later failed that are incorrectly predicted not to fail) and the Type II error rates (the percentage of surviving insurers that are incorrectly predicted to fail). The data analyzed were for 1989-91 for firms that subsequently failed and for firms that survived through the first nine months of 1993. The authors make four main conclusions. First, less than half of the companies that later failed had RBC ratios within the proposed ranges for regulatory and company action. Second, total and component RBC ratios generally are significantly different for failed and surviving firms based on univariate tests. Third, estimation of multiple logistic regression models of insolvency risk indicated that allowing the weights of the RBC component to vary and including firm size and organizational form variables generally produce a material improvement in the tradeoff between sample Type I and Type II error rates. And, fourth,the RBC models are noticeably less successful in predicting large firm insolvencies than in predicting smaller insolvencies. Regarding the estimated weights in the logistic regression models, a major conclusion is the reserve component of the NAIC risk-based capital formula, which accounts for half of industry risk-based capital, has virtually no predictive power in any of the tests conducted. Given the high costs associated with large failures and the inferior performance of the models in predicting large insolvencies, a higher payoff in terms of reduced insolvency costs is likely to be achieved by developing models that perform better for large firms.

In Vitro Synthesis of Chlorophyll A in the Dark Triggers Accumulation of Chlorophyll A Apoproteins in Barley Etioplasts”

An in vitro translation system using lysed etioplasts was developed to test if the accumulation of plastid-encoded chlorophyll a apoproteins is dependent on the de novo synthesis of chlorophyll a. The P700 apoproteins, CP47 and CP43, were not radiolabeled in pulsechase translation assays employing lysed etioplasts in the absence of added chlorophyll precursors. When chlorophyllide a plus phytylpyrophosphate were added to lysed etioplast translation assays in the dark, chlorophyll a was synthesized and radiolabeled P700 apoproteins, CP47 and CP43, and a protein which comigrates with D1 accumulated. Chlorophyllide a or phytylpyrophosphate added separately to the translation assay in darkness did not induce chlorophyll a formation or chlorophyll a apoprotein accumulation. Chlorophyll a formation and chlorophyll a apoprotein accumulation were also induced in the lysed etioplast translation system by the photoreduction of protochlorophyllide to chlorophyllide a in the presence of exogenous phytylpyrophosphate. Accumulation of radiolabeled CP47 was detectable when very low levels of chlorophyll a were synthesized de novo (less than 0.01 nmol/10(7) plastids), and radiolabel increased linearly with increasing de novo chlorophyll a formation. Higher levels of de novo synthesized chlorophyll a were required prior to detection of radiolabel incorporation into the P700 apoproteins and CP43 (greater than 0.01 nmol/10(7) plastids). Radiolabel incorporation into the P700 apoproteins, CP47 and CP43, saturated at a chlorophyll a concentration which corresponds to 50% of the etioplast protochlorophyllide content (0.06 nmol of chlorophyll a/10(7) plastids)

A Structured Framework and Resources to Use to Get Your Medical Education Work Published.

IntroductionMedical educators often have great ideas for medical education scholarship but have difficulty converting their educational abstract or project into a published manuscript.MethodsDuring this workshop, participants addressed common challenges in developing an educational manuscript. In small-group case scenarios, participants discovered the importance of the "So what?" in making the case for their project. Incorporating conceptual frameworks, participants chose appropriate outcome metrics, discussed how to frame the discussion section, and ensured appropriate journal fit. After each small-group exercise, large-group discussions allowed the small groups to report back so that facilitators could highlight and reinforce key learning points. At the conclusion of the workshop, participants left with a checklist for creating an educational manuscript and an additional resources document to assist them in avoiding common pitfalls when turning their educational abstract/project into a publishable manuscript.ResultsThis workshop was presented in 2016 and 2017. Presenter evaluations were completed by 33 participants; 11 completed conference evaluations. The mean overall rating on presenter evaluations was 4.55 out of 5, while the conference evaluations mean was 3.73 out of 4. Comments provided on both evaluation tools highlighted the perceived effectiveness of the delivery and content. More than 50% of respondents stated that they planned to incorporate the use of conceptual frameworks in future work.DiscussionThis workshop helped participants address common challenges by providing opportunities for hands-on practice as well as tips and resources for use when submitting a medical education manuscript for publication

On the Average Genus of a Graph

Not all rational numbers are possibilities for the average genus of an individual graph. The smallest such numbers are determined, and varied examples are constructed to demonstrate that a single value of average genus can be shared by arbitrarily many different graphs. It is proved that the number one is a limit point of the set of possible values for average genus and that the complete graph K4 is the only 3-connected graph whose average genus is less than one. Several problems for future study are suggested

Vertical integration and firm boundaries : the evidence

Since Ronald H. Coase's (1937) seminal paper, a rich set of theories has been developed that deal with firm boundaries in vertical or input–output structures. In the last twenty-five years, empirical evidence that can shed light on those theories also has been accumulating. We review the findings of empirical studies that have addressed two main interrelated questions: First, what types of transactions are best brought within the firm and, second, what are the consequences of vertical integration decisions for economic outcomes such as prices, quantities, investment, and profits. Throughout, we highlight areas of potential cross-fertilization and promising areas for future work

Impact of the SPOP Mutant Subtype on the Interpretation of Clinical Parameters in Prostate Cancer.

Purpose: Molecular characterization of prostate cancer, including The Cancer Genome Atlas, has revealed distinct subtypes with underlying genomic alterations. One of these core subtypes, SPOP (speckle-type POZ protein) mutant prostate cancer, has previously only been identifiable via DNA sequencing, which has made the impact on prognosis and routinely used risk stratification parameters unclear. Methods: We have developed a novel gene expression signature, classifier (Subclass Predictor Based on Transcriptional Data), and decision tree to predict the SPOP mutant subclass from RNA gene expression data and classify common prostate cancer molecular subtypes. We then validated and further interrogated the association of prostate cancer molecular subtypes with pathologic and clinical outcomes in retrospective and prospective cohorts of 8,158 patients. Results: The subclass predictor based on transcriptional data model showed high sensitivity and specificity in multiple cohorts across both RNA sequencing and microarray gene expression platforms. We predicted approximately 8% to 9% of cases to be SPOP mutant from both retrospective and prospective cohorts. We found that the SPOP mutant subclass was associated with lower frequency of positive margins, extraprostatic extension, and seminal vesicle invasion at prostatectomy; however, SPOP mutant cancers were associated with higher pretreatment serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). The association between SPOP mutant status and higher PSA level was validated in three independent cohorts. Despite high pretreatment PSA, the SPOP mutant subtype was associated with a favorable prognosis with improved metastasis-free survival, particularly in patients with high-risk preoperative PSA levels. Conclusion: Using a novel gene expression model and a decision tree algorithm to define prostate cancer molecular subclasses, we found that the SPOP mutant subclass is associated with higher preoperative PSA, less adverse pathologic features, and favorable prognosis. These findings suggest a paradigm in which the interpretation of common risk stratification parameters, particularly PSA, may be influenced by the underlying molecular subtype of prostate cancer

G92-1097 Root and Crown Rot: Winterkill Complex of Winter Wheat

Root and crown rot--winterkill complex is discussed, including nature of the complex, symptoms, control, and management rationale. Root and crown rot of winter wheat is an interrelated disease complex caused by the interaction of infection of roots and crowns by Bipolaris sorokiniana and/or Fusarium graminearum and harsh winter conditions. It is an insidious, persistent and inconspicuous disease complex that reduces wheat yields each year. In extreme cases, entire fields or large areas within fields are killed. The ultimate effect is loss of stands, poor plant vigor, reduced yield and lower grain quality