Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Comovement of Hours and Productivity

In this article, we demonstrate that a small degree of stochastic variation in the depreciation rate of capital can greatly reduce the comovement between hours worked and labor productivity in a neoclassical growth model. The depreciation rate is modeled as a Markov process to place a strict upper bound and to ensure that variation and not the level of the rate is driving the result. Markov switching implies nonlinear decision rules in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). Our contribution to DSGE solution methodologies in the presence of Markov switching is to apply Judd's (1998) projection method to nonlinear decision rules. This approach allows for nonlinear decision rules in a richer set of models with many more state variables than can be solved with grid based approximations. The results presented here suggest that Markov switching parameters offer a powerfull extension to DSGE models.

Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability

Which monetary regime is associated with the most stable price level? A commodity money regime such as the classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But critics of the day argued that the regime was associated with too much short-run price variability and argued for reforms that look much like modern versions of price-level targeting. In this paper, we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that we use to examine price dynamics under four alternative regimes. They are the gold standard, Irving Fisher's compensated dollar proposal, and two regimes with paper money in which the central bank uses an interest rate rule to run monetary policy. In the first, the central bank uses an interest rate rule to target the price of gold. In the second, there is no convertibility and the central bank targets uses an interest rate rule to target an inflation rate. We find that strict inflation targeting, even though it introduces a unit root into the price level, provides more short-run stability than the gold standard and as much long-term price stability as does the gold standard for horizons shorter than 30 years. We find that Fisher's compensated dollar reduces price level and inflation uncertainty by an order of magnitude at all horizons.

Gold, fiat money and price stability

The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine price dynamics under alternative policy regimes. In the model, an inflation target provides more short-run price stability than does the gold standard and, although it introduces a unit root into the price level, it leads to as much long-term price stability as does the gold standard for horizons shorter than 30 years. Relative to these regimes, Fisher's compensated dollar reduces price level and inflation uncertainty by an order of magnitude at all horizons.> The classical gold standard has long been associated with long-run price stability. But short-run price variability led critics of the gold standard to propose reforms that look much like modern versions of price-path targeting. This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to examine price dynamics under alternative policy regimes. In the model, an inflation target provides more short-run price stability than does the gold standard and, although it introduces a unit root into the price level, it leads to as much long-term price stability as does the gold standard for horizons shorter than 30 years. Relative to these regimes, Fisher's compensated dollar reduces price level and inflation uncertainty by an order of magnitude at all horizons.Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy ; Gold standard

Stochastic capital depreciation and the comovement of hours and productivity

An unresolved question concerning stochastic depreciation shocks is whether they have to be unrealistically large to have any useful role in a dynamic general equilibrium model economy, as Ambler and Paquet (1994) first suggested. We first consider implied depreciation rates from sectoral data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. These depreciation rates vary across time solely due to compositional changes within each sector. Hence, they tend to understate the range of fluctuation that would hold if the economic shelf life of capital varied endogenously as in Cooley, Greenwood and Yorukoglu (1997). We find, however, that if depreciation rates follow a Markov switching process, a low variance of the depreciation rate can generate the low correlation between hours worked and productivity in a simple model economy. White noise and autoregressive depreciation shocks, in contrast, require a counterfactually large variance in the depreciation rate to reduce the hours-productivity correlation. We also illustrate the level effects implied by nonlinear decision rules in simulations of dynamic general equilibrium models that include Markov switching parameters. Linear decision rules, in contrast, imply certainty equivalence and ignore the aversion that agents have to the skewed shock distributions that characterize Markov switching.Econometric models ; Productivity

Sec24p and Sec16p cooperate to regulate the GTP cycle of the COPII coat

Vesicle budding from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) employs a cycle of GTP binding and hydrolysis to regulate assembly of the COPII coat. We have identified a novel mutation (sec24-m11) in the cargo-binding subunit, Sec24p, that specifically impacts the GTP-dependent generation of vesicles in vitro. Using a high-throughput approach, we defined genetic interactions between sec24-m11 and a variety of trafficking components of the early secretory pathway, including the candidate COPII regulators, Sed4p and Sec16p. We defined a fragment of Sec16p that markedly inhibits the Sec23p-and Sec31p-stimulated GTPase activity of Sar1p, and demonstrated that the Sec24p-m11 mutation diminished this inhibitory activity, likely by perturbing the interaction of Sec24p with Sec16p. The consequence of the heightened GTPase activity when Sec24p-m11 is present is the generation of smaller vesicles, leading to accumulation of ER membranes and more stable ER exit sites. We propose that association of Sec24p with Sec16p creates a novel regulatory complex that retards the GTPase activity of the COPII coat to prevent premature vesicle scission, pointing to a fundamental role for GTP hydrolysis in vesicle release rather than in coat assembly/ disassembly

Seasonal and annual fluxes of nutrients and organic matter from large rivers to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 35 (2012): 369-382, doi:10.1007/s12237-011-9386-6.River inputs of nutrients and organic matter impact the biogeochemistry of arctic estuaries and the Arctic Ocean as a whole, yet there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of fluvial fluxes at the pan-arctic scale. Samples from the six largest arctic rivers, with a combined watershed area of 11.3 x 106 km2, have revealed strong seasonal variations in constituent concentrations and fluxes within rivers as well as large differences among the rivers. Specifically, we investigate fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen, total dissolved phosphorus, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, nitrate, and silica. This is the first time that seasonal and annual constituent fluxes have been determined using consistent sampling and analytical methods at the pan arctic scale, and consequently provide the best available estimates for constituent flux from land to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. Given the large inputs of river water to the relatively small Arctic Ocean, and the dramatic impacts that climate change is having in the Arctic, it is particularly urgent that we establish the contemporary river fluxes so that we will be able to detect future changes and evaluate the impact of the changes on the biogeochemistry of the receiving coastal and ocean systems.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through grants OPP-0229302, OPP-0519840, OPP-0732522, and OPP-0732944. Additional support was provided by the U. S. Geological Survey (Yukon River) and the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs (Mackenzie River)

Natural course of behavioral addictions: A 5-year longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Resolving the theoretical controversy on the labeling of an increasing number of excessive behaviors as behavioral addictions may also be facilitated by more empirical data on these behavioral problems. For instance, an essential issue to the classification of psychiatric disorders is information on their natural course. However, longitudinal research on the chronic vs. episodic nature of behavioral addictions is scarce. The aim of the present study, therefore, was to provide data on prevalence, substance use comorbidity, and five-year trajectories of six excessive behaviors—namely exercising, sexual behavior, shopping, online chatting, video gaming, and eating. METHODS: Analyses were based on the data of the Quinte Longitudinal Study, where a cohort of 4,121 adults from Ontario, Canada was followed for 5 years (2006 to 2011). The response rate was 21.3%, while retention rate was 93.9%. To assess the occurrence of each problem behavior, a single self-diagnostic question asked people whether their over-involvement in the behavior had caused significant problems for them in the past 12 months. To assess the severity of each problem behavior reported, the Behavioral Addiction Measure was administered. A mixed design ANOVA was used to investigate symptom trajectories over time for each problem behavior and whether these symptom trajectories varied as a function of sex. RESULTS: The large majority of people reported having problematic over-involvement for just one of these behaviors and just in a single time period. A main effect of time was found for each problem behavior, indicating a moderately strong decrease in symptom severity across time. The time x sex interaction was insignificant in each model indicating that the decreasing trend is similar for males and females. The data also showed that help seeking was very low in the case of excessive sexual behavior, shopping, online chatting, and video gaming but substantially more prevalent in the case of excessive eating and exercising. CONCLUSIONS: The present results indicate that self-identified excessive exercising, sexual behavior, shopping, online chatting, video gaming, and/or eating tend to be fairly transient for most people. This aspect of the results is inconsistent with conceptualizations of addictions as progressive in nature, unless treated. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12888-015-0383-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The processing and impact of dissolved riverine nitrogen in the Arctic Ocean

© The Author(s), 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 35 (2012): 401-415, doi:10.1007/s12237-011-9417-3.Although the Arctic Ocean is the most riverine-influenced of all of the world’s oceans, the importance of terrigenous nutrients in this environment is poorly understood. This study couples estimates of circumpolar riverine nutrient fluxes from the PARTNERS (Pan-Arctic River Transport of Nutrients, Organic Matter, and Suspended Sediments) Project with a regionally configured version of the MIT general circulation model to develop estimates of the distribution and availability of dissolved riverine N in the Arctic Ocean, assess its importance for primary production, and compare these estimates to potential bacterial production fueled by riverine C. Because riverine dissolved organic nitrogen is remineralized slowly, riverine N is available for uptake well into the open ocean. Despite this, we estimate that even when recycling is considered, riverine N may support 0.5–1.5 Tmol C year−1 of primary production, a small proportion of total Arctic Ocean photosynthesis. Rapid uptake of dissolved inorganic nitrogen coupled with relatively high rates of dissolved organic nitrogen regeneration in N-limited nearshore regions, however, leads to potential localized rates of riverine-supported photosynthesis that represent a substantial proportion of nearshore production.Funding for this work was provided through NSFOPP- 0229302 and NSF-OPP-0732985.Support to SET was additionally provided by an NSERC Postdoctoral Fellowship

Measurement of the W-Pair Production Cross Section and W-Decay Branching Fractions in e+e−e^{+}e^{-} Interactions at s\sqrt{s}= 189 GeV

The data collected by the L3 experiment at LEP at a centre-of-mass energy of $188.6~\rm{Ge\kern -0.1em V}$ are used to measure the W-pair production cross section and the W-boson decay branching fractions. These data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 176.8~pb$^{-1}$. The total cross section for W-pair production, combining all final states, is measured to be $\sigma_{\rm{WW}}= 16.24 \pm 0.37~(stat.) \pm 0.22~(syst.)$~pb. Including our data collected at lower centre-of-mass energies, the hadronic branching fraction of the W-boson is determined to be $B(\rm{W} \rightarrow \rm{qq})= \left[ 68.20 \pm 0.68~(stat.) \pm 0.33~(syst.)\right]~\%$. The results agree with the Standard Model predictions.The data collected by the L3 experiment at LEP at a centre-of-mass energy of 188.6 GeV are used to measure the W-pair production cross section and the W-boson decay branching fractions. These data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 176.8pb^-1. The total cross section for W-pair production, combining all final states, is measured to be sigma_WW = 16.24 +/- 0.37(stat.) +/- 0.22(syst.) pb. Including our data collected at lower centre-of-mass energies, the hadronic branching fraction of the W-boson is determined to be B(W ->qq) = [68.20 +/- 0.68 (stat.) +/- 0.33 (syst.) ] %. The results agree with the Standard Model predictions.The data collected by the L3 experiment at LEP at a centre-of-mass energy of 188.6 GeV are used to measure the W-pair production cross section and the W-boson decay branching fractions. These data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 176.8 pb −1 . The total cross section for W-pair production, combining all final states, is measured to be σ WW =16.24±0.37 (stat.)±0.22 (syst.) pb. Including our data collected at lower centre-of-mass energies, the hadronic branching fraction of the W-boson is determined to be B (W→qq)=[68.20±0.68 (stat.)±0.33 (syst.)]%. The results agree with the Standard Model predictions