Foreign investment and the export behaviour of foreign and local firms: an analysis of Turkish manufacturing

This paper compares the export performance of a sample of 119 foreign and local firms in Turkey, in 1994 and 1995, using descriptive statistical techniques. It also examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) by multinational enterprises (MNEs) in manufacturing exports and its contribution to the changing comparative advantage of Turkish manufacturing sectors. The findings suggest that even after the implementation of liberal economic policies in 1980 foreign and local firms, exporting less than 25% of their output, are principally local market-oriented. The results show, however, that FDI plays an important role in shifting the comparative advantage of manufacturing exports from traditional to technology-intensive sectors. In the long term, this is expected to result in a greater export-orientation for Turkish manufacturing industry.Export Propensity, Foreign Firms, Revealed Comparative Advantage.

EMU and Politically-Induced Output Variability: Can the Stability and Growth Pack Help?

Rogoff, 1985, suggested that central bank independence would lead to lower inflation but greater output variability. Alesina and Gatti, 1995, demonstrated Rogoff’s work was partial by only considering economic sources of output variability. By including political factors, circumstances could be identified when making a central bank independent could reduce both inflation and output variability. In EMU, however, there is no choice about central bank independence. Starting with a review of the analysis presented by Alesina and Gatti, this paper suggests national fiscal policies could also be a source of politically-induced output variability. It reinterprets the analysis of Alesina and Gatti and identifies circumstances when the Stability and Growth Pact could help to reduce output variability in EMU.

Institutional change in the international governance of agriculture: a revised account

The place of agriculture in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) prior to 1986 is usually described in terms of either exclusion or exemption from general trading rules. This paper reevaluates the ‘exemption’ argument and its corollary that the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) represented a punctuated equilibrium in the governance of agriculture. Instead it traces the dynamics of institutional change through the history of the GATT/WTO, distinguishing between multilateral trading rounds and the framework of trade rules as separate but linked contexts for addressing agricultural trade matters; and further disaggregating the latter into broad principles and specific rules. It is argued that the broad principles lacked detail but, paradoxically, initially this facilitated an approach to dispute settlement based on conciliation. Subsequent trade tensions exposed an inability to make definitive legal decisions on the compatibility of specific national rules with broad GATT principles. The AoA is rooted in these institutional antecedents, but claims of the legalization of the trade regime are belied by a continued reliance on political flexibility and bargaining.

WTO Regulations and Bioenergy Sustainability Certification – Synergies and Possible Conflicts

Biofuels are increasingly being produced and consumed as a partial substitute to fossil-fuel based transport fuels in the fight against climate change. One policy introduced recently by some countries to help ensure biofuels perform better than fossil fuels environmentally is sustainability criteria. These, typically, require lower greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels, considering not only their use but also production. Concerns have been expressed from various quarters that such criteria could represent WTO-incompatible barriers to trade. The present paper addresses two specific issues. First, it argues that biofuels should be treated like any other traded product under WTO law, in particular the GATT agreement. Thus an importing country could not impose different trade measures dependent on whether the biofuel was produced according to its sustainability criteria. Second, the TBT Agreement provides guidance on how to draw up international standards that can help ensure WTO compatibility. This cannot guarantee such compatibility, but it can help reduce significantly the chances of WTO Members bringing actions against a fellow Member’s biofuels sustainability criteria. There is little direct case law to draw upon, but it is argued that, if the TBT guidance is followed, in the long term the absence of case law can be taken as an indication that sustainability criteria are WTO-compatible.biofuels, sustainability, WTO

The EC budget and agricultural policy reforms, with special reference to cereals

The aim of this thesis is to explore the links that exist between the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Communities (EC) and the EC budget. In particular, the thesis examines the impact on the budget of reforming the CAP. It shows that the nature of support offered under the CAP up to the 1992 MacSharry reforms has a strong historical precedent in French and German history. It then goes on to examine in greater detail the support mechanisms of the cereals and oilseeds sectors. The cereals sector is focused on because of its importance in agricultural output and in total agricultural support expenditure by the EC. Oilseeds is considered for its policy linkages with cereals in both production and consumption. The detailed nature of expenditures on these sectors is examined in detail, with particular emphasis placed on costs and policy problems arising out of intervention storage. In forecasting future expenditures under different policy scenarios, cereals production and consumption are considered separately. Imports, exports and intervention behaviour are also considered, to permit the examination of all aspects of the cereals market that affect expenditure. The impact of the 1992 MacSharry reforms is compared to a strict continuation of the 1988 stabiliser reforms and a price freeze at 1992 levels for the forecast period to 1999. It is shown that the impact of the 1992 reforms is to reduce the extent of the market imbalances by 1999 as compared with the base scenarios, but unless the level of compensatory payment is cut, then by 1999, the EC faces a support bill that is higher under the new policy than would have been the case had the 1988 reforms been retained

Determinants of the informal economy of an emerging economy: a multiple indicator, multiple causes (MIMIC) approach

Positing the implementation of evidenced-based policies to manage the informal economy, our paper employs, in a novel way, the multiple-cause, multiple-indicator model and primary data, to identify the determinants of the Nigerian informal economy. Building on previous literature, relevant determinants of the informal economy were constructed from participants’ responses to questions designed to solicit such information. We found the factors responsible for the origin and expansion of the Nigerian informal economy to include: unemployment, a need to be autonomous/self-employed, corruption of government officials/agencies, participants’ desire to pay less tax, and participants’ need to survive. The greatest influence, in terms of magnitude and impacts, comes from the ‘participants’ need to survive’ factor, followed by corruption. Our policy recommendations follow these identified factors, and recognise the positive and important role played by the informal economy. Although country-specific, our findings/recommendations may be used to inform policy in other countries with similar economic structures as Nigeria

Inclusive poverty reduction: In search of a policy framework to support individuals operating in the informal economy in Lagos, Nigeria

Recent policy efforts to enhance and modernise the urban environment of Lagos have included restricting, or banning outright, street hawking and okada riding. These highly visible activities have been targeted for multiple reasons, including a desire by the authorities to improve personal safety and security, reduce okada-related accidents, improve traffic flows, and attract greater investment into the city. These measures have not been without controversy, with the uses of Lagos’s public space being highly contested between the authorities, informal operators, and residents. The bans target two major sources of income-earning opportunity for informal operators in Lagos. Further, they have persisted because residents have continued to buy from hawkers, and seek rides on okadas, as they actualise their daily transportation and consumption needs. The purpose of this research project has been to understand the reasons behind the perceived shortcomings of the measures imposed and seek to find ways to improve both the policies themselves and the policymaking processes that deliver the measures governing everyone’s daily lives in Lagos. To do this, we have engaged widely with stakeholders on both policies and policymaking. We have interviewed representatives from six government ministries, the federation of informal workers organisations of Nigeria, and representatives of Okada riders and street traders. We have gathered data through a survey of over 1700 respondents across okada riders, street traders and residents in 20 local government areas in Lagos State. Please note, however, that this survey was conducted in January-February 2022, before the outright bans on okada riders, imposed later in 2022. We have also sought the views of residents via radio phone-in programmes. We have then hosted two workshops, bringing the stakeholders together, to reflect on the findings of the research and to co-create proposals for ways that can take these concerns forward. Our workshops have demonstrated that whilst every stakeholder has an agenda to pursue and protect, and whilst the different agendas will sometimes conflict, there is a great willingness to meet in a spirit of cooperation and collaboration. From these meetings, the stakeholders have identified mutually agreeable solutions and ways forward, towards inclusive policy and policymaking processes, reflective of the dynamics of the Lagos economy. We present these recommendations now

Historical-institutionalist perspectives on the development of the EU budget system

The EU budget has only recently started to feature in theories of European integration. Studies typically adopt a historical-institutionalist framework, exploring notions such as path dependency. They have, however, generally been rather aggregated, or coarse-grained, in their approach. The EU budget has thus been treated as a single entity rather than a series of inter-linked institutions. This paper seeks to address these lacunae by adopting a fine-grained approach. This enables us to emphasize the connections that exist between EU budgetary institutions, in both time and space. We show that the initial set of budgetary institutions was unable, over time, to achieve consistently their treaty-based objectives. In response, rather than reform these institutions at potentially high political cost, additional institutions were layered on top of the extant structures. We thus demonstrate how some EU budgetary institutions have remained unchanged, whilst others have been added or changed over time

The Role of Policy Entrepreneurs and the Problem Brokers in Coupling Industry Trajectories and Multiple Streams in Multiple Windows of Opportunity

In this paper, we present an initial analysis of work that seeks to understand, through a novel combination of concepts, the process that are driving the UKs decarbonisation strategy for the automotive sector, specifically cars and the car industry. For this research we draw on grounded theory. We undertake extensive fieldwork interviews and documentary analyses that allow us to explore, in fine-grained detail, the interlinkages in a context where policymakers seek to create a new market (cars with zero tailpipe emissions), but where the technology and investment must come from the private sector, indeed from several related industries within the automotive sector. Moreover, those private sector actors have considerable self-interest in the shape of that policy. We draw upon, notably, the multiple streams framework, the multilevel perspective, policy entrepreneurs, problem brokers, and multiple distinct types of window of opportunity, to understand how technology, market and policy factors have worked jointly to put the UK automotive industry on a specific trajectory. We find this has come about through the interplay of different groups of actors operating across fields of specialism – technology, market and policy – with different actors operating in different windows, to achieve the ultimate goal of a functioning market for electric vehicles

The EU financial perspective 2007-2013 and the forces that shaped the final agreement

In December 2005, the European Council agreed a Financial Perspective for 2007-2013. This reduced significantly planned EU spending compared with the Commission proposal. Morover, if effectively redistributed net funds from new poorer member states to old richer members. This paper charts the evolution of those budget proposals, with reference to key facts that brough about these changes.EU budget, financial perspectives.