Trajectory Mapping and Applications to Data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite

The problem of creating synoptic maps from asynoptically gathered trace gas data has prompted the development of a number of schemes. Most notable among these schemes are the Kalman filter, the Salby-Fourier technique, and constituent reconstruction. This paper explores a new technique called trajectory mapping. Trajectory mapping creates synoptic maps from asynoptically gathered data by advecting measurements backward or forward in time using analyzed wind fields. A significant portion of this work is devoted to an analysis of errors in synoptic trajectory maps associated with the calculation of individual parcel trajectories. In particular, we have considered (1) calculational errors; (2) uncertainties in the values and locations of constituent measurements, (3) errors incurred by neglecting diabatic effects, and (4) sensitivity to differences in wind field analyses. These studies reveal that the global fields derived from the advection of large numbers of measurements are relatively insensitive to the errors in the individual trajectories. The trajectory mapping technique has been successfully applied to a variety of problems. In this paper, the following two applications demonstrate the usefulness of the technique: an analysis of dynamical wave-breaking events and an examination of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite data accuracy

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Genetic variation in vitamin D-related genes and risk of colorectal cancer in African Americans

PurposeDisparities in both colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and survival impact African Americans (AAs) more than other US ethnic groups. Because vitamin D is thought to protect against CRC and AAs have lower serum vitamin D levels, genetic variants that modulate the levels of active hormone in the tissues could explain some of the cancer health disparity. Consequently, we hypothesized that genetic variants in vitamin D-related genes are associated with CRC risk.MethodsTo test this hypothesis, we studied 39 potentially functional single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in eight genes (CYP2R1, CYP3A4, CYP24A1, CYP27A1, CYP27B1, GC, DHCR7, and VDR) in 961 AA CRC cases and 838 healthy AA controls from Chicago and North Carolina. We tested whether SNPs are associated with CRC incidence using logistic regression models to calculate p values, odds ratios, and 95% confidence intervals. In the logistic regression, we used a log-additive genetic model and used age, gender, and percent West African ancestry, which we estimated with the program STRUCTURE, as covariates in the models.ResultsA nominally significant association was detected between CRC and the SNP rs12794714 in the vitamin D 25-hydroxylase gene CYP2R1 (p=0.019), a SNP that has previously been associated with serum vitamin D levels. Two SNPs, rs16847024 in the GC gene and rs6022990 in the CYP24A1 gene, were nominally associated with left-sided CRC (p=0.015 and p=0.018, respectively).ConclusionsOur results strongly suggest that genetic variation in vitamin D-related genes could affect CRC susceptibility in AAs. Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10552-014-0361-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users