Early characterization of the severity and transmissibility of pandemic influenza using clinical episode data from multiple populations

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics

The influence of the atmospheric boundary layer on nocturnal layers of noctuids and other moths migrating over southern Britain

Insects migrating at high altitude over southern Britain have been continuously monitored by automatically-operating, vertical-looking radars over a period of several years. During some occasions in the summer months, the migrants were observed to form well-defined layer concentrations, typically at heights of 200-400 m, in the stable night-time atmosphere. Under these conditions, insects are likely to have control over their vertical movements and are selecting flight heights which are favourable for long-range migration. We therefore investigated the factors influencing the formation of these insect layers by comparing radar measurements of the vertical distribution of insect density with meteorological profiles generated by the UK Met. Office’s Unified Model (UM). Radar-derived measurements of mass and displacement speed, along with data from Rothamsted Insect Survey light traps provided information on the identity of the migrants. We present here three case studies where noctuid and pyralid moths contributed substantially to the observed layers. The major meteorological factors influencing the layer concentrations appeared to be: (a) the altitude of the warmest air, (b) heights corresponding to temperature preferences or thresholds for sustained migration and (c), on nights when air temperatures are relatively high, wind-speed maxima associated with the nocturnal jet. Back-trajectories indicated that layer duration may have been determined by the distance to the coast. Overall, the unique combination of meteorological data from the UM and insect data from entomological radar described here show considerable promise for systematic studies of high-altitude insect layering

Social, Structural and Behavioral Determinants of Overall Health Status in a Cohort of Homeless and Unstably Housed HIV-Infected Men

Background: Previous studies indicate multiple influences on the overall health of HIV-infected persons; however, few assess and rank longitudinal changes in social and structural barriers that are disproportionately found in impoverished populations. We empirically ranked factors that longitudinally impact the overall health status of HIV-infected homeless and unstably housed men. Methods and Findings: Between 2002 and 2008, a cohort of 288 HIV+ homeless and unstably housed men was recruited and followed over time. The population was 60 % non-Caucasian and the median age was 41 years; 67 % of study participants reported recent drug use and 20 % reported recent homelessness. At baseline, the median CD4 cell count was 349 cells/ml and 18 % of eligible persons (CD4,350) took antiretroviral therapy (ART). Marginal structural models were used to estimate the population-level effects of behavioral, social, and structural factors on overall physical and mental health status (measured by the SF-36), and targeted variable importance (tVIM) was used to empirically rank factors by their influence. After adjusting for confounding, and in order of their influence, the three factors with the strongest negative effects on physical health were unmet subsistence needs, Caucasian race, and no reported source of instrumental support. The three factors with the strongest negative effects on mental health were unmet subsistence needs, not having a close friend/confidant, and drug use. ART adherence.90 % ranked 5th for its positive influence on mental health, and viral loa

Using Combined Morphological, Allometric and Molecular Approaches to Identify Species of the Genus Raillietiella (Pentastomida)

Taxonomic studies of parasites can be severely compromised if the host species affects parasite morphology; an uncritical analysis might recognize multiple taxa simply because of phenotypically plastic responses of parasite morphology to host physiology. Pentastomids of the genus Raillietiella are endoparasitic crustaceans primarily infecting the respiratory system of carnivorous reptiles, but also recorded from bufonid anurans. The delineation of pentastomids at the generic level is clear, but the taxonomic status of many species is not. We collected raillietiellids from lungs of the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina), the invasive Asian house gecko (Hemidactylus frenatus), and a native tree frog (Litoria caerulea) in tropical Australia, and employed a combination of genetic analyses, and traditional and novel morphological methods to clarify their identity. Conventional analyses of parasite morphology (which focus on raw values of morphological traits) revealed two discrete clusters in terms of pentastome hook size, implying two different species of pentastomes: one from toads and a tree frog (Raillietiella indica) and another from lizards (Raillietiella frenatus). However, these clusters disappeared in allometric analyses that took pentastome body size into account, suggesting that only a single pentastome taxon may be involved. Our molecular data revealed no genetic differences between parasites in toads versus lizards, confirming that there was only one species: R. frenatus. This pentastome (previously known only from lizards) clearly is also capable of maturing in anurans. Our analyses show that the morphological features used in pentastomid taxonomy change as the parasite transitions through developmental stages in the definitive host. To facilitate valid descriptions of new species of pentastomes, future taxonomic work should include both morphological measurements (incorporating quantitative measures of body size and hook bluntness) and molecular data

A study protocol to investigate the relationship between dietary fibre intake and fermentation, colon cell turnover, global protein acetylation and early carcinogenesis: the FACT study

Background: A number of studies, notably EPIC, have shown a descrease in colorectal cancer risk associated with increased fibre consumption. Whilst the underlying mechanisms are likely to be multifactorial, production of the short-chain fatty-acid butyrate fro butyratye is frequently cited as a major potential contributor to the effect. Butyrate inhibits histone deacetylases, which work on a wide range of proteins over and above histones. We therefore hypothesized that alterations in the acetylated proteome may be associated with a cancer risk phenotype in the colorectal mucosa, and that such alterations are candidate biomarkers for effectiveness of fibre interventions in cancer prevention. Methods an design: There are two principal arms to this study: (i) a cross-sectional study (FACT OBS) of 90 subjects recruited from gastroenterology clinics and; (ii) an intervention trial in 40 subjects with an 8 week high fibre intervention. In both studies the principal goal is to investigate a link between fibre intake, SCFA production and global protein acetylation. The primary measure is level of faecal butyrate, which it is hoped will be elevated by moving subjects to a high fibre diet. Fibre intakes will be estimated in the cross-sectional group using the EPIC Food Frequency Questionnaire. Subsidiary measures of the effect of butyrate on colon mucosal function and precancerous phenotype will include measures of apoptosis, apoptotic regulators cell cycle and cell division. Discussion: This study will provide a new level of mechanistic data on alterations in the functional proteome in response to the colon microenvironment which may underwrite the observed cancer preventive effect of fibre. The study may yield novel candidate biomarkers of fibre fermentation and colon mucosal function

Improving Interpretation of Cardiac Phenotypes and Enhancing Discovery With Expanded Knowledge in the Gene Ontology

This work was funded through grants from the British Heart Foundation (BHF, SP/07/007/23671, RG/13/5/30112) and the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre; The Zebrafish Model Organism Database: National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI, HG002659, HG004838, HG004834); The Rat Genome Database: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute on behalf of the NIH (HL64541); The Mouse Genome Database: NGHRI (HG003300); FlyBase: UK Medical Research Council (G1000968); and Gene Ontology Consortium: NIH NHGRI (U41 HG002273) to Drs Blake, Cherry, Lewis, Sternberg, and Thomas. Professor Riley received BHF personal chair award (CH/11/1/28798). Professors Lambiase and Tinker received support from BHF and UK Medical Research Council. Professor Tinker received National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Barts and BHF grant (RG/15/15/31742). Dr Roncaglia received EMBL-EBI Core funds

Sex differences in rheumatoid arthritis: more than meets the eye...

Sex differences in the prevalence of autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are well described, but the literature is not as clear about sex differences in RA disease course and prognosis. A recent study from a very large cross-sectional international cohort demonstrated slightly worse levels of disease activity and function in female patients with RA, compared with men. These findings are discussed in the context of our evolving knowledge of sex differences in the expression of this prototypic autoimmune disease, both in terms of the actual disease activity level, the effects that the disease has on physical function, and our ability accurately to measure these aspects

Clinical and laboratory characteristics in juvenile-onset systemic lupus erythematosus across age groups

BACKGROUND Systemic lupus erythematous (SLE) is a systemic autoimmune/inflammatory condition. Approximately 15–20% of patients develop symptoms before their 18th birthday and are diagnosed with juvenile-onset SLE (JSLE). Gender distribution, clinical presentation, disease courses and outcomes vary significantly between JSLE patients and individuals with adult-onset SLE. This study aimed to identify age-specific clinical and/or serological patterns in JSLE patients enrolled to the UK JSLE Cohort Study. METHODS Patient records were accessed and grouped based on age at disease-onset: pre-pubertal (≤7 years), peri-pubertal (8–13 years) and adolescent (14–18 years). The presence of American College of Rheumatology (ACR) classification criteria, laboratory results, disease activity [British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2 K) scores] and damage [Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) damage index] were evaluated at diagnosis and last follow up. RESULTS A total of 418 JSLE patients were included in this study: 43 (10.3%) with pre-pubertal disease onset; 240 (57.4%) with peri-pubertal onset and 135 (32.3%) were diagnosed during adolescence. At diagnosis, adolescent JSLE patients presented with a higher number of ACR criteria when compared with pre-pubertal and peri-pubertal patients [pBILAG2004 scores: 9(4–20] vs. 7(3–13] vs. 7(3–14], respectively, p = 0.015] with increased activity in the following BILAG domains: mucocutaneous (p = 0.025), musculoskeletal (p = 0.029), renal (p = 0.027) and cardiorespiratory (p = 0.001). Furthermore, adolescent JSLE patients were more frequently ANA-positive (p = 0.034) and exhibited higher anti-dsDNA titres (p = 0.001). Pre-pubertal individuals less frequently presented with leukopenia (p = 0.002), thrombocytopenia (p = 0.004) or low complement (p = 0.002) when compared with other age groups. No differences were identified in disease activity (pBILAG2004 score), damage (SLICC damage index) and the number of ACR criteria fulfilled at last follow up. CONCLUSIONS Disease presentations and laboratory findings vary significantly between age groups within a national cohort of JSLE patients. Patients diagnosed during adolescence exhibit greater disease activity and “classic” autoantibody, immune cell and complement patterns when compared with younger patients. This supports the hypothesis that pathomechanisms may vary between patient age groups

Teaching Engineering Ethics using BLOCKS Game

The aim of this study was to investigate the use of a newly developed design game called BLOCKS to stimulate awareness of ethical responsibilities amongst engineering students. The design game was played by seventeen teams of chemical engineering students, with each team having to arrange pieces of colored paper to produce two letters each. Before the end of the game, additional constraints were introduced to the teams such that they faced similar ambiguity in the technical facts that the engineers involved in the Challenger disaster had faced prior to the space shuttle launch. At this stage, the teams had to decide whether to continue with their original design or to develop alternative solutions. After the teams had made their decisions, a video of the Challenger explosion was shown followed by a post-game discussion. The students’ opinion on five Statements on ethics was tracked via a Five-Item Likert survey which was administered three times, before and after the ethical scenario was introduced, and after the video and post-game discussion. The results from this study indicated that the combination of the game and the real-life incident from the video had generally strengthened the students’ opinions of the Statements

Does reductive metabolism predict response to tirapazamine (SR 4233) in human non-small-cell lung cancer cell lines?

The bioreductive drug tirapazamine (TPZ, SR 4233, WIN 59075) is a lead compound in a series of potent cytotoxins that selectively kill hypoxic rodent and human solid tumour cells in vitro and in vivo. Phases II and III trials have demonstrated its efficacy in combination with both fractionated radiotherapy and some chemotherapy. We have evaluated the generality of an enzyme-directed approach to TPZ toxicity by examining the importance of the one-electron reducing enzyme NADPH:cytochrome P450 reductase (P450R) in the metabolism and toxicity of this lead prodrug in a panel of seven human non-small-cell lung cancer cell lines. We relate our findings on TPZ sensitivity in these lung lines with our previously published results on TPZ sensitivity in six human breast cancer cell lines (Patterson et al (1995) Br J Cancer 72: 1144–1150) and with the sensitivity of all these cell types to eight unrelated cancer chemotherapeutic agents with diverse modes of action. Our results demonstrate that P450R plays a significant role in the activation of TPZ in this panel of lung lines, which is consistent with previous observations in a panel of breast cancer cell lines (Patterson et al (1995) Br J Cancer 72: 1144–1150; Patterson et al (1997) Br J Cancer 76: 1338–1347). However, in the lung lines it is likely that it is the inherent ability of these cells to respond to multiple forms of DNA damage, including that arising from P450R-dependent TPZ metabolism, that underlies the ultimate expression of toxicity. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig