Public health interventions to control the spread of a directly transmitted human pathogen within and between Hong Kong and Guangzhou.

The ability to detect and differentiate between fast and slow spatial spread of infectious disease depends on the density of the surveillance network. 2. The results of this study suggest that more concentrated surveillance networks are required in Guangzhou compared with other regions, such as Thailand and Europe, as long-distance travel is less frequent.published_or_final_versio

Statistical algorithms for early detection of the annual influenza peak season in Hong Kong using sentinel surveillance data

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Transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in Hong Kong

1. Pigs are likely to be the main amplifying host for Japanese encephalitis virus. 2. The success of a swine vaccination programme depends on the timing of the loss of maternal antibody protection and seasonal dynamics of the vector population. 3. Vaccination may be ineffective in the face of strong natural infection because of the variability in timing of the loss of maternal antibody protection.4. Evidence in support of swine vaccination as a human health intervention was not found.published_or_final_versio

Methods for monitoring influenza surveillance data

Background: A variety of Serfling-type statistical algorithms requiring long series of historical data, exclusively from temperate climate zones, have been proposed for automated monitoring of influenza sentinel surveillance data. We evaluated three alternative statistical approaches where alert thresholds are based on recent data in both temperate and subtropical regions. Methods: We compared time series, regression, and cumulative sum (CUSUM) models on empirical data from Hong Kong and the US using a composite index (range = 0-1) consisting of the key outcomes of sensitivity, specificity, and time to detection (lag). The index was calculated based on alarms generated within the first 2 or 4 weeks of the peak season. Results: We found that the time series model was optimal in the Hong Kong setting, while both the time series and CUSUM models worked equally well on US data. For alarms generated within the first 2 weeks (4 weeks) of the peak season in Hong Kong, the maximum values of the index were: time series 0.77 (0.86); regression 0.75 (0.82); CUSUM 0.56 (0.75). In the US data the maximum values of the index were: time series 0.81 (0.95); regression 0.81 (0.91); CUSUM 0.90 (0.94). Conclusions: Automated influenza surveillance methods based on short-term data, including time series and CUSUM models, can generate sensitive, specific, and timely alerts, and can offer a useful alternative to Serfling-like methods that rely on long-term, historically based thresholds. © Copyright 2006 Oxford University Press.postprin

Viral evolution from one generation of human influenza infection to the next

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Viral shedding, clinical history and transmission of influenza

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Removal of TcO4- from Representative Nuclear Waste Streams with Layered Potassium Metal Sulfide Materials

Many efforts have focused on the sequestration and immobilization of 99Tc because the radionuclide is highly mobile in oxidizing environments and presents serious health risks due to its radiotoxicity and long half-life (t1/2 = 213 000 a). One of the more common methods for Tc removal from solution and immobilization in solids is based on reducing Tc from highly soluble Tc(VII) to sparingly soluble Tc(IV). Here, we report results obtained with two potassium metal sulfides (KMS-2 and KMS-2-SS) that are capable of reducing Tc(VII) to Tc(IV). Batch sorption experiments were performed in both oxic and anoxic conditions for 15 d in both deionized water (DIW) and a highly caustic (pH ∼ 13.6), high ionic strength (8.0 mol L-1), low-activity waste (LAW) stream simulant solution. Tc removal for both materials in DIW is improved in anoxic conditions compared to oxic conditions as a result of a higher solution pH. In DIW and anoxic conditions, KMS-2 is capable of removing ∼45% of Tc, and KMS-2-SS is capable of removing ∼90% of Tc. Both materials perform even better in the LAW simulant and remove more than 90% of available Tc after 15 d of contact in anoxic conditions. Postreaction solids analyses indicate that Tc(VII) is reduced to Tc(IV) and that Tc(IV) is bonded to S atoms in a Tc2S7 complex. Examination of the materials after Tc removal by X-ray diffraction shows that the initially crystalline KMS-2 materials lose much of their initial long-range order. We suggest a Tc removal mechanism wherein the TcO4- enters the interlayer of the KMS-2 materials where it is reduced by sulfide, which results in a distorted crystalline structure and a solid-state Tc2S7 complex

Social contacts and the locations in which they occur as risk factors for influenza infection

The interaction of human social behaviour and transmission is an intriguing aspect of the life cycle of respiratory viral infections. Although age-specific mixing patterns are often assumed to be the key drivers of the age-specific heterogeneity in transmission, the association between social contacts and biologically confirmed infection has not previously been tested at the individual level. We administered a questionnaire to participants in a longitudinal cohort survey of influenza in which infection was defined by longitudinal paired serology. Using a variety of statistical approaches, we found overwhelming support for the inclusion of individual age in addition to contact variables when explaining odds of infection: the best model not including age explained only 15.7% of the deviance, whereas the best model with age explained 23.6%. However, within age groups, we did observe an association between contacts, locations and infection: median numbers of contacts (or locations) reported by those infected were higher than those from the uninfected group in every age group other than the youngest. Further, we found some support for the retention of location and contact variables in addition to age in our regression models, with excess odds of infection of approximately 10% per additional 10 contacts or one location. These results suggest that, although the relationship between age and incidence of respiratory infection at the level of the individual is not driven by self-reported social contacts, risk within an age group may be.published_or_final_versio

Efficient simulation of the spatial transmission dynamics of influenza

Early data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (H1N1pdm) suggest that previous studies over-estimated the within-country rate of spatial spread of pandemic influenza. As large spatially resolved data sets are constructed, the need for efficient simulation code with which to investigate the spatial patterns of the pandemic becomes clear. Here, we present a significant improvement to the efficiency of an individual based stochastic disease simulation framework commonly used in multiple previous studies. We quantify the efficiency of the revised algorithm and present an alternative parameterization of the model in terms of the basic reproductive number. We apply the model to the population of Taiwan and demonstrate how the location of the initial seed can influence spatial incidence profiles and the overall spread of the epidemic. Differences in incidence are driven by the relative connectivity of alternate seed locations. The ability to perform efficient simulation allows us to run a batch of simulations and take account of their average in real time. The averaged data are stable and can be used to differentiate spreading patterns that are not readily seen by only conducting a few runs. © 2010 Tsai et al.published_or_final_versio

Crystallization behavior of iron- and boron-containing nepheline (Na2 O●Al2 O3 ●2SiO2 ) based model high-level nuclear waste glasses

This study focuses on understanding the relationship between iron redox, composition, and heat‐treatment atmosphere in nepheline‐based model high‐level nuclear waste glasses. Glasses in the Na2O–Al2O3–B2O3–Fe2O3–SiO2 system with varying Al2O3/Fe2O3 and Na2O/Fe2O3 ratios have been synthesized by melt‐quench technique and studied for their crystallization behavior in different heating atmospheres—air, inert (N2), and reducing (96%N2–4%H2). The compositional dependence of iron redox chemistry in glasses and the impact of heating environment and crystallization on iron coordination in glass‐ceramics have been investigated by Mössbauer spectroscopy and vibrating sample magnetometry. While iron coordination in glasses and glass‐ceramics changed as a function of glass chemistry, the heating atmosphere during crystallization exhibited minimal effect on iron redox. The change in heating atmosphere did not affect the phase assemblage but did affect the microstructural evolution. While glass‐ceramics produced as a result of heat treatment in air and N2 atmospheres developed a golden/brown colored iron‐rich layer on their surface, those produced in a reducing atmosphere did not exhibit any such phenomenon. Furthermore, while this iron‐rich layer was observed in glass‐ceramics with varying Al2O3/Fe2O3 ratio, it was absent from glass‐ceramics with varying Na2O/Fe2O3 ratio. An explanation of these results has been provided on the basis of kinetics of diffusion of oxygen and network modifiers in the glasses under different thermodynamic conditions. The plausible implications of the formation of iron‐rich layer on the surface of glass‐ceramics on the chemical durability of high‐level nuclear waste glasses have been discussed