Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?

Die möglichst präzise und vor allem zutreffende Vorhersage unsicherer zukünftiger Ereignisse ist eine permanente Herausforderung für Unternehmen. Prognosemärkte adressieren diese Aufgabe, indem sie relevante Informationen aufdecken, bewerten und aggregieren. Mit diesem Bericht leisten wir einen Beitrag zur Bewertung der Leistungsfähigkeit von Prognosemärkten und tragen zusammen, wo potentielle Schwierigkeiten liegen und inwiefern dafür bereits Lösungsansätze vorhanden sind. Es hat sich gezeigt, dass ein webbasiertes System mit einem virtuellen Aktienmarkt über den Preismechanismus effizient individuelle Urteile aggregieren kann und sich durch vergleichsweise niedrige Transaktionskosten und hohe Skalierbarkeit in Bezug auf die Anzahl möglicher Teilnehmer auszeichnet. Die operative Implementierung kann durch internes Marketing bereits vor dem Launch, durch die richtige Sprache, durch eine kontinuierliche Kontrolle des Anreizsystems und durch eine klare Unterstützung vom Topmanagement unterstützt werden. Erfahrungen der Wirtschaft zeigen die bisher noch schwierige Realisierung langfristiger Prognosen über Predictive Markets, da das hierfür optimale Anreizschema noch nicht ausreichend erforscht ist. Außerdem sind weitere empirische Untersuchungen notwendig, um bessere Aussagen über den Umgang mit spekulativen Blasen, über die ideale Anzahl von parallel handelbaren Aktien und über die Kalibrierung des Prognosehorizonts treffen zu können

POLITICS, ECONOMICS AND THE REGULATION OF DIRECT INTERSTATE SHIPPING IN THE WINE INDUSTRY

In 1986, the State of California passed legislation restricting the direct importation of wine from another state by California residents unless the originating state allowed the reciprocal privilege of direct shipment from California wineries to residents in that state. This proved to be the opening salvo in a series of legislative and judicial battles across the country. State direct shipment regulations that were uniform across 47 of the 50 states prior to 1986 now constitute a patchwork of regulations. This raises unique interstate trade questions due to the special treatment of alcohol in the U.S. Constitution. While the Commerce Clause forbids states from discriminating against interstate commerce, the 21st Amendment affords states the right to regulate alcohol within their borders. Courts are divided in their opinions on direct shipment regulation; some find that prohibiting direct shipment unconstitutionally restricts interstate commerce while others find the regulations consistent with the public interest rationale of the 21st Amendment. This paper attempts to shed light on the motivations for the various forms of regulation adopted across states in response to California's adoption of reciprocity. Using a competing risks hazard model, we examine how various economic and public interest factors affect the speed with which a state adopts a change in its direct shipment regulation and that nature of that change. Our results suggest that economic considerations, not public interest factors, lie at the root of direct shipment regulations in the wine industry.Agribusiness,

Quorum sensing in \u3ci\u3eCandida albicans\u3c/i\u3e: farnesol versus farnesoic acid

Candida albicans is a clinically important dimorphic fungus that exhibits either a budding yeast or a mycelial-hyphal or pseudohyphal growth, depending on environmental conditions. The yeast-to-mycelia morphologic transition, which is generally regarded as an important virulence determinant, depends on the inoculum size of liquid cultures. The yeast form is favored when cultures are inoculated at \u3e 106 cells∙mL–1, whereas the mycelial form is favored at inoculum densities \u3c 106∙mL–1. Farnesoic acid (FA) and farnesol (FOH) are two related sesquiterpene quorum- sensing molecules that, upon accumulation, prevent the yeast-to-mycelial conversion. Oh et al. showed that C. albicans strain ATCC 10231 excretes FA, while Hornby et al. showed that C. albicans A72 and SC5314 excrete FOH. Subsequent work indicated that 10231 was the only isolate of C. albicans that fails to produce detectable FOH. Moreover, when tested on C. albicans A72, FA had only 3.2% of the hyphal-inhibitory activity relative to FOH. These observations raised two questions: 1., Do FOH and FA block mycelial development via the same molecular mechanism; and 2., What is the biochemical or physiologic difference in strain 10231 that underlies excretion of FA and not FOH? Do farnesol and farnesoic acid share a common mechanism of action? An apparent paradox in the regulation of hyphal morphogenesis by CaPho81p Why does C. albicans strain 10231 secrete farnesoic acid, while other C. albicans strains secrete farnesol

Absatzprognosen: Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme der unternehmerischen Praxis

Die möglichst präzise Vorhersage der zukünftigen Absatzentwicklung als Informationsgrundlage für strategische und operative Entscheidungen zur Steuerung des Geschäftes stellt für Unternehmen eine permanente Herausforderung dar. Mit Hilfe von Absatzprognosen sollen Trendentwicklungen und drohende Strukturbrüche in den bearbeiteten Marktsegmenten frühzeitig erkannt und daraus wirksame unternehmerische Maßnahmen abgeleitet werden. Unsere empirische Studie untersucht Absatzprognosen in der unternehmerischen Praxis der 500 größten deutschen Unternehmen mit dem Ziel, einen Überblick zur Relevanz von Absatzprognosen, zur Einschätzung der Prognosegenauigkeit und zur organisatorischen Verantwortlichkeit für Prognosen im Unternehmen zu gewinnen. Darüber hinaus sollen die mit Absatzprognosen verbundenen Herausforderungen jeweils unter kurz-, mittel- und langfristigem Aspekt kritisch bewertet und gleichzeitig die eingesetzten Methoden skizziert werden. Ein weiterer Aspekt der Studie befasst sich mit der Frage, wie Unternehmen auf stark veränderte Absatzprognosen reagieren. Abschließend soll unsere Studie gerade aufgrund der inzwischen vorliegenden recht positiven Forschungsergebnisse zu Prognosemärkten Informationen liefern, in wieweit diese Methodik in der Praxis bekannt ist und eingesetzt wird. Ferner interessiert uns, wie die Stärken und Schwächen sowie die Einsatzpotentiale von Prognosemärkten bewertet werden. Die Ergebnisse der Studie zeigen deutlich, dass treffsichere Prognosen für zukünftige Absatzmärkte sehr bedeutsam sind und hier ein erheblicher Optimierungsbedarf besteht.Precise predictions about future sales as a foundation for strategic and operative decisions are a permanent management challenge. Our empirical study surveys the use of sales forecasts in the 500 biggest German companies. The study gives an overview concerning the relevance of sales forecasts, an evaluation of the forecast reliability and the responsibility for forecasts within the corporation. Long-, medium- and short-term challenges and methods associated with sales forecasting will be examined. We further want to figure out how companies react on strong sales forecast deviations. Finally, our study provides information on how these methods are accepted and used in practice, and we will provide information about strengths and weaknesses of predictive markets. The results show clearly that distinct forecasts for future markets are relevant and that there is room for improvement in the corporate forecasting practice

Wertschöpfende Pricing-Prozesse: Eine empirische Untersuchung der Pricing-Praxis

Prozessaspekte rücken immer mehr in den Fokus der wissenschaftlichen Auseinandersetzung mit der Thematik des Pricing. Gleichzeitig zeichnet sich auch in der unternehmerischen Praxis ein Wandel ab; Pricing ist nicht mehr lediglich die Berechnung des deckungsbeitrags- oder absatzmengenoptimalen Preises, die Herausgabe von Preislisten und die Festlegung von Rabattstufen. Vielmehr geraten zunehmend Fragen der Preisstrategie, der Organisation des Pricing wie auch der Gestaltung der Pricing-Prozesse in den Blick des Managements. Möglicherweise ist man zunehmend sensibilisiert für die Bedeutung des Gewinntreibers Preis. In einer empirischen Befragung wurde untersucht, inwieweit in der unternehmerischen Praxis bereits durchgängige Pricing-Prozesse etabliert sind und zu welchem Grad die einzelnen Prozessbestandteile umgesetzt werden. Die Untersuchung wurde mittels eines Fragebogens durchgeführt, der an insgesamt 1824 Führungskräfte und Experten aus Unternehmen versendet wurden. Zum Ende der Untersuchung konnte eine Rücklaufquote von 21 % (377 absolut) erreicht werden, was durchaus als Indikator für die Relevanz der Thematik in der Praxis gewertet werden kann. Durch die Auswertung der Antworten konnte festgestellt werden, dass die Wichtigkeit des Pricing und der Pricing-Prozesse von Managern durchaus erkannt wird, dass die Ableitung und Umsetzung der Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich der Pricing-Praxis der Unternehmen aber noch hinter dem Erkenntnisstand zurück bleibt. Insgesamt liefert die Untersuchung Hinweise darauf, dass bezüglich der Pricing-Prozesse unausgeschöpftes Potenzial besteht, dessen Erschließung ein Weg zu einem professionelleren und wertschöpfenderem Pricing sein kann.Over the past few years the process view has attracted more and more interest within the academic discussion on pricing; no longer are the several fields of pricing dealt with separately but rather viewed and arranged as a process. At the same time a change in circumstances of pricing in business practice becomes apparent; pricing is not anymore limited to the challenges of calculating the optimal price in terms of contribution margins and sales volume, publishing of price lists, or the determination of discount levels. In fact, topics of pricing strategy, pricing organization or the configuration of pricing processes emerge to being key success factors in running a professional business. This may in part be due to managers realizing that the price is the most effective parameter to drive profit. In an empirical study it was investigated to what degree pricing processes are available in business practice and to gather information on the scope of implementation of the individual pricing processes. The study was conducted using a questionnaire, which was sent to 1824 managers and experts working in various businesses. After completion, a rate of return of over 21% was achieved, which can be seen as one indicator for the high relevance of the topic. The collected data suggests that, although pricing and its processes are deemed as quite important by the respondents, the implementation within the organizations is lagging behind. Altogether, the study shows that there is still great untapped potential regarding pricing processes in business practice. Capitalizing on this potential will lead to a more professional pricing and will eventually drive value and profit

Pricing-Prozesse bei Herstellern von Fast Moving Consumer Goods

Die Prozessorientierung des Pricings rückte in den letzten Jahren verstärkt in den Fokus der wissenschaftlichen Diskussion; ferner wurden auch in Unternehmen verstärkt die Pricing-Prozesse überprüft. Im Mittelpunkt steht vielfach nicht mehr die klassische Preisoptimierung, sondern eine ganzheitliche, prozessorientierte Betrachtung des Pricings - beginnend mit einem professionellen Pricing Research über die Entwicklung und Formulierung einer angemessenen Pricing-Strategie sowie deren Umsetzung im Unternehmen bis hin zu einem ansystematischen Preis-Controlling. Dieser Ansatz ist in einigen Branchen bereits weiter verbreitet und ermöglicht in manchen Unternehmen erhebliche Renditesteigerungen. Gegenstand dieses Forschungsberichtes sind Pricing-Prozesse bei Herstellern von Fast Moving Consumer Goods. Unternehmen dieser Branche sehen sich einer schwierigen Umfeldsituation gegenüber, welche ein professionelles Preismanagement erforderlich macht. Vor allem die Auseinandersetzungen mit dem Handel, der intensive Wettbewerb der Hersteller untereinander sowie die internationale Tätigkeit der meisten FMCG Hersteller sind Ursachen eines erheblichen Handlungsbedarfs im Pricing. Aber wie hoch sind der Stellenwert und die Professionalität der Pricing Prozesse tatsächlich in der Praxis der FMCG Hersteller? Und in welchen Bereichen sind unter Umständen Defizite zu erkennen? Im Rahmen einer empirischen Untersuchung wurden diese Fragestellungen umfassend untersucht. Um hier zu Aussagen kommen zu können, wurde eine Studie von RIEKHOF/LOHAUS speziell für Hersteller von FMCGs ausgewertet. Zusätzlich konnten wir durch Experteninterviews und eine internationalen Befragung der Tochtergesellschaften eines FMCG Herstellers ein detaillierteres Bild über die Pricing Prozesse und deren Relevanz in der Praxis gewinnen. Unsere Untersuchungen ergaben, dass die Bedeutung des Themas zwar durchaus erkannt wird, jedoch nach wie vor Optimierungspotenzial besteht.Price management is of extreme importance for manufacturers - not only in times of a difficult economic environment. For Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies, it is even inalienable. Especially the interaction with retailers, the intense competition as well as the international activity of most FMCG companies cause a strong need for action. However, researchers as well as practitioners do not focus on the classical price optimization anymore. In fact, the process orientation of pricing has come into focus. In this research paper, a holistic, process oriented consideration of pricing - starting with professional pricing research, elaboration and formulation of an appropriate pricing strategy and the subsequent implementation as well as the process of price controlling - is presented. But what is the real significance of pricing in the practice of FMCG companies? And how professional are the related processes? In which areas are possible deficits? Through an empirical study, we examined these questions. In order to get appropriate results, we also used a study of Riekhof/Lohaus which was analyzed especially with regard to FMCG companies. Furthermore, we have enhanced our understanding of pricing processes of FMCG companies thanks to expert interviews and an international survey of affiliates which we did with one big company in the FMCG field. The successful execution of the pricing process approach with extensive profit increases in practical business environments shows the potential it has for corporations. However, our examination finds that there is still room for improvement despite the fact that pricing's importance is recognized by managers

Background risk and risk-taking – evidence from the field

Most decisions involving risk are not taken in isolation. In addition to the risk from that decision, other independent, so-called ‘background’ risks, are considered. Our research adds to the growing evidence that this background risk influences risk-taking. We report results from a repeated lab-in-the-field investment task with Senegalese fishers in the presence of background risk related to their fishing income and their health. Our measure of background risk is the monthly wind condition. Without controls, we find that fishers act on average intemperately. Adding controls, we find that the impact of background risk on risk-taking—measured as the investment in the investment task—depends on the boat size of the fishers. When dividing the sample according to wealth, we find temperate behavior for the relatively poorer group and intemperate behavior that depends on boat lengths for the relatively richer group. Our results show the interrelations between background risk and context factors

Mitochondria as a Potential Antifungal Target for Isocyanide Compounds

The discovery of antibiotics and antifungals greatly impacted medicine and human health, allowing the effective treatment of infections that were previously deadly. However, due to routine and sometimes excessive usage of these compounds, the development of antimicrobial resistance has created a need for new antibiotic and antifungal compounds. Isocyanide compounds have been shown to have antibacterial, antifungal, and anti-cancer properties, but very little is known about their biochemical effects. Our research aims to understand the mechanism of action of isocyanide compounds. We have conducted a genetic screen of a Saccharomyces gene-deletion (“knockout”) collection on media containing an easily synthesized model isocyanide compound, para-nitrophenyl isocyanide (p-NPIC). This allowed us to identify genes which, when deleted, render the mutant strains resistant or hypersensitive to the compound. Based on our genetic screen for hypersensitive mutants, we hypothesize that the isocyanides impact mitochondrial function, specifically altering the function of the Cu++-containing respiratory complex, Cytochrome C Oxidase (Complex IV). Our findings provide new information on the mechanism(s) of action of this class of antimicrobials and will help guide the development of new molecules based on lead-compounds such as p-NPIC

Essays in resource and development economics

Chapter 1: Does the Adverse Announcement Effect of Climate Policy Matter? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis We quantify the welfare effect of a climate policy that is announced today, but implemented with a known time lag as political procedures impede immediate implementation. The policy is a carbon emissions tax whose time path is chosen optimally at the time when implemented. During the time span before implementation, the announcement induces a lower price of fossil fuel and thus higher emissions as compared to a no-intervention scenario. In principle, this adverse ‘announcement effect’ could more than outweigh in welfare terms the gain from the tax after implementation. We show this not to be just a theoretical curiosity. We quantify a ‘window of opportunity’ such that implementation before (after) its end is a welfare gain (loss) over the no-intervention scenario. The result is highly sensitive to assumptions on the resource stock which is afflicted with particular empirical uncertainties. Our central estimate is a window of opportunity of about 60 years. Hence, there is still time to act, but the window of opportunity may be smaller. Thus, the adverse announcement effect is a worrying phenomenon deserving political awareness. The model is a Ramsey model extended by an exhaustible carbon resource and linked to a stylized dynamic climate model adapted from Nordhaus (2008b). Chapter 2: When will Higher Interest Payments Lead to More Education? Based on observations from field studies in fishing communities in India, we include a fragmented credit market into a two-sector, two-period model with common pool externalities to establish conditions under which credit market distortions either increase or decrease education. We show that higher interest payments increase education if their negative effect on capital investment and therefore labor productivity in low-skilled production outweighs their positive effect on subjective discounting and therefore the present value of highskilled production. Positive common pool externalities from reduced capital investment in low-skilled production can counterbalance the impact of capital changes on low-skilled labor productivity and therefore on education. The overall outcome depends on the affected interest factor, the household’s initial wealth and the common pool externality. Chapter 3: Estimating the Insurance Premium in Interlinked Credit-Output Contracts On informal credit markets, one often observes a type of credit that does not base interest payments on the loan amount, but on income flows (interlinked credit-output contract). This can be understood as a risk sharing mechanism where interest payments include an insurance premium. This paper shows that the premium increases with the income volatility. Based on observations from small-scale fishing communities around Chilika lagoon, India, the paper also confirms the finding empirically. Furthermore, in contrast to pure credit contracts, interlinked contracts allow fishing boats as collateral around Chilika lagoon. This reduces their interest rate. It explains why interlinked interest rates turn out to be of similar size as micro finance interest rates even though the former include an insurance component