Workshop on Drought Forecasting for Northeast Brazil

Precipitation forecasting parameters for northeast Brazil were developed. Hydrological, sociological, and economic aspects were examined. A drought forecasting model is presented

A shortening of the life-cycle of major tropical cyclones

In this study a comprehensive picture of the changing intensity life cycle of major (Category 3 and higher) tropical cyclones (TCs) is presented. Over the past decades, the lifetime maximum intensity has increased, but there has also been a significant decrease in duration of time spent at intensities greater than Category 1. These compensating effects have maintained a stable global mean‐accumulated cyclone energy of individual major TCs. The global mean duration of major TCs has shortened by about 1 day from 1982 to 2018. There has been both faster intensification (Categories 1 to 3) and weakening (Categories 3 to 1) by about 40%. The probabilities of rapid intensification and rapid weakening have both risen in the period 2000–2018 compared to 1982–1999. A statistically significant anticorrelation is found between the lifetime maximum intensity and the following duration of the final weakening. This suggests an element of self‐regulation of TC life cycles

Development and validation of the brief esophageal dysphagia questionnaire

BackgroundEsophageal dysphagia is common in gastroenterology practice and has multiple etiologies. A complication for some patients with dysphagia is food impaction. A valid and reliable questionnaire to rapidly evaluate esophageal dysphagia and impaction symptoms can aid the gastroenterologist in gathering information to inform treatment approach and further evaluation, including endoscopy.Methods1638 patients participated over two study phases. 744 participants completed the Brief Esophageal Dysphagia Questionnaire (BEDQ) for phase 1; 869 completed the BEDQ, Visceral Sensitivity Index, Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease Questionnaire, and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale for phase 2. Demographic and clinical data were obtained via the electronic medical record. The BEDQ was evaluated for internal consistency, split‐half reliability, ceiling and floor effects, and construct validity.Key ResultsThe BEDQ demonstrated excellent internal consistency, reliability, and construct validity. The symptom frequency and severity scales scored above the standard acceptable cutoffs for reliability while the impaction subscale yielded poor internal consistency and split‐half reliability; thus the impaction items were deemed qualifiers only and removed from the total score. No significant ceiling or floor effects were found with the exception of 1 item, and inter‐item correlations fell within accepted ranges. Construct validity was supported by moderate yet significant correlations with other measures. The predictive ability of the BEDQ was small but significant.Conclusions & InferencesThe BEDQ represents a rapid, reliable, and valid assessment tool for esophageal dysphagia with food impaction for clinical practice that differentiates between patients with major motor dysfunction and mechanical obstruction.Validated, rapid clinical assessment tools for esophageal dysphagia are lacking. The brief esophageal dysphagia questionnaire aims to gauge the severity and frequency of dysphagia with additional items to gauge food impaction. The BEDQ is a reliable and valid tool to assess esophageal dysphagia.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135130/1/nmo12889.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/135130/2/nmo12889_am.pd

Численное моделирование теплофизических условий реализации режима циркулирующего кипящего слоя применительно к топкам котлов

Актуальность проведения исследований, направленных на совершенствование методов численного анализа аэротермохимических процессов в топках с циркулирующим кипящим слоем на основе компьютерного математического моделирования, является весьма высокой для обоснования основных проектно-конструкторских и режимно-эксплуатационных параметров при создании котлов с ЦКС. С помощью наработанных численных расчетов возможно не только правильно осмыслять и понимать физические явления, наблюдаемые, например, на экспериментальных установках, но и в некоторых случаях заменить физический или натуральный эксперимент компьютерным как более дешевым и менее трудоемким.The relevance of research aimed at improving the methods of numerical analysis of aerothermochemical processes in furnaces with a circulating fluidized bed based on computer mathematical modeling is very high for justifying the main design and operational parameters creating boilers with CFB. With the help of accumulated numerical calculations, it is possible not only to correctly comprehend and understand the physical phenomena observed, for example, in experimental installations, but also in some cases to replace a physical or natural experiment with a computer one as cheaper and less time-consuming

Precipitation data and analysis

CER70-71DBS-EJR-MAS-JHD-VCD-HR50.May 1971.VIMHEX is an intensive program of tropical meteorological and hydrological observations taken in northeast Venezuela during the summer of 1969 to support a study of tropical atmospheric physics and the resulting effects of rainfall. The objectives of the program are to express the meso-scale weather structure in terms of the synoptic-scale envelope and to formulate the ground response to the rainfall produced by tropical weather disturbances over relatively flat tropical topography. The Volume I Hydrology Report lists all the precipitation data collected during the summer of 1969 in the study area of northeast Venezuela. Most of the precipitation data is in the form of hourly rainfall. In addition, weekly and other longer period isohyetal maps are presented for the study area. The weekly and monthly average precipitations over the drainage basins have been determined. For the summer months of July, August, and September an average of 4.8 mm of precipitation per day fell on the drainage basins. In subsequent reports, these data will be related to the hydrology and stream response of the area.VIMHEX was sponsored by the Department of Defense through its THEMIS program

Magnetic Resonance

Contains research objectives and reports on three research projects