The impact of rising oil prices on the transport sector

Oil is the dominant motorized transportation fuel used in most countries, including Australia. Many other oilderived products and services are important to the functioning of the Australian economy. It makes sense, then, that this issue of Australian Planner focuses on the risks associated with scarce and/or expensive oil. This paper provides background information about oil consumption in Australia, and reviews the available information on price elasticities for the major oil end-uses. Based on this review, the impact of higher oil prices is assessed, and short- and long-run policy options are discussed. Reducing fuel used for private motoring, and preparing emergency adaptation plans to cope with sudden oil price spikes are identified as the major areas on which planners should focus. © 2010 Planning Institute Australia

Residential operational energy use

Despite decades of debate in urban research about the effect of built form on household energy use, the empirical research on the topic is still far from conclusive. Many studies rely on small samples and fail to control for crucial variables such as household income. This article describes a detailed analysis of household energy use in Sydney that controls for major household demographic and income variables. The results demonstrate that appliance ownership, household size, dwelling size and dwelling type all affect energy consumption. Importantly, from a planning perspective, energy use in low-rise attached dwellings, after controlling for other factors, is estimated as 15-20 per cent lower than detached dwellings with the same number of bedrooms

Urban structure and commuting in Australian cities

Studies looking at the relationship between urban form and travel behaviour have generally considered spatial information at coarse metropolitan or local government area scales. We analyse ABS census data at the Collection District level for the metropolitan areas of the mainland Australian state capital cities, and at various spatial scales for an in-depth analysis of commuting in Sydney. The analyses suggest that the relationship between travel behaviour and urban form is complex, and that simple analyses of density alone are likely to overstate the effect of both metropolitan and neighbourhood scale population density on mode choice, but that these variables serve as useful proxies for more complex measures of urban structure

The health impacts of local traffic pollution on primary school age children

There is a large body of medical research on the health impacts of local traffic air pollution. Vehicle emissions, road dust and tyre fragmentation together cause an increase in atmospheric levels of carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrates and particulate matter in both solid and liquid forms. For those exposed to such pollution, there is a documented increase in mortality and morbidity from both respiratory and cardiac diseases. There is also evidence that the effects are greater on children. Despite these findings, there has been comparatively little work done in estimating the effect on student health of school location, with most studies focusing instead on residential location. By combining a random sample of primary schools in Sydney with detailed traffic volume data, we estimate the impact of traffic pollution on the health of primary school children in Sydney

Urban Structure and Energy -- A Review

The nature and form of the urban environment is a critical determinant of the sustainability of our society, as it is responsible directly for a large proportion of consumed energy, and influences indirectly the patterns and modes of energy consumed in everyday activities. We examine the current state of research into the energy and greenhouse gas emissions attributable directly or indirectly to urban form. Specifically, we look at the embodied (construction) and operational energy attributable to the construction, maintenance and use of residential dwellings, and we review the literature on the relationship between urban structure and private travel behaviour. While there is clear evidence from both intra- and inter-city comparisons that higher density, transit-oriented cities have lower per-capita transport energy use, the effect of housing density on residential (in-house) energy use is less clear. More detailed research is needed to examine the relationships between urban form and overall energy use

The impact of physical planning policy on household energy use and greenhouse emissions (PhD Thesis)

This thesis investigates the impact of physical planning policy on combined transport and dwelling related energy use by households. Separate analyses and reviews are conducted into dwelling related and transport-related energy use by households, before a model is developed to investigate the city-wide implications of different land-use scenarios in Sydney, Australia. The analysis of household energy use in Chapter 3 suggests that medium density housing (i.e. lose-rise apartments, townhouses, and terraces) is likely to result in the lowest per-capita energy use, while also allowing for sufficient densities to make frequent public transport service viable. The analysis of transport energy in Chapter 4 confirms that increasing urban density is associated with decreased car ownership and use, independent of other factors. However, land use changes alone are likely to result in modest changes to travel behaviour. The results of the scenario modeling in Chapters 7-9 support the view that changes to land use alone can reduce household energy consumption, but the changes, even over a long time period (25 years) are small (~0â10%) for all but the most extreme land-use policies. Instead, a coordinated (land-use/transport and other policy levers) approach is much more effective. The results confirm that it is transport energy that is most sensitive to planning policy, but that a combined consideration of dwelling-related and transport-related energy use is still useful. The micro-simulation model developed to assess the impact of different land-use planning scenarios allows the establishment of a lower-bound estimate of the effect that housing policy has on household energy use, assuming âbusiness as usualâ transport policy, household behaviour, and technology

Smart Work Centres: An Analysis of Demand in Western Sydney

This study sets out to explore the potential for smart work centres in the local government areas of Liverpool, Blacktown and Penrith in Western Sydney. Smart work centres are differentiated from other work environments like main workplace, serviced offices, coworking spaces, third spaces and home offices by location, operations and atmosphere. Targeted to serve teleworkers, they are located close to where people live, provide a fully serviced formal workplace but operate with a community atmosphere that engenders creativity and innovation. This report investigates the circumstances that support teleworking, examines the commuting patterns and demographics of the 3 LGAs, and then analyses census data to predict a demand for a centre in any one of the 3 locations. The report goes on to propose a scenario for a successful centre based on the findings from the research

Trans-dimensional inverse problems, model comparison and the evidence

In most geophysical inverse problems the properties of interest are parametrized using a fixed number of unknowns. In some cases arguments can be used to bound the maximum number of parameters that need to be considered. In others the number of unknowns is set at some arbitrary value and regularization is used to encourage simple, non-extravagant models. In recent times variable or self-adaptive parametrizations have gained in popularity. Rarely, however, is the number of unknowns itself directly treated as an unknown. This situation leads to a transdimensional inverse problem, that is, one where the dimension of the parameter space is a variable to be solved for. This paper discusses trans-dimensional inverse problems from the Bayesian viewpoint. A particular type of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is highlighted which allows probabilistic sampling in variable dimension spaces. A quantity termed the evidence or marginal likelihood plays a key role in this type of problem. It is shown that once evidence calculations are performed, the results of complex variable dimension sampling algorithms can be replicated with simple and more familiar fixed dimensional MCMC sampling techniques. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the main points. The evidence can be difficult to calculate, especially in high-dimensional non-linear inverse problems. Nevertheless some general strategies are discussed and analytical expressions given for certain linear problem

Automatic differentiation in geophysical inverse problems

Automatic differentiation (AD) is the technique whereby output variables of a computer code evaluating any complicated function (e.g. the solution to a differential equation) can be differentiated with respect to the input variables. Often AD tools take the form of source to source translators and produce computer code without the need for deriving and hand coding of explicit mathematical formulae by the user. The power of AD lies in the fact that it combines the generality of finite difference techniques and the accuracy and efficiency of analytical derivatives, while at the same time eliminating 'human' coding errors. It also provides the possibility of accurate, efficient derivative calculation from complex 'forward' codes where no analytical derivatives are possible and finite difference techniques are too cumbersome. AD is already having a major impact in areas such as optimization, meteorology and oceanography. Similarly it has considerable potential for use in non-linear inverse problems in geophysics where linearization is desirable, or for sensitivity analysis of large numerical simulation codes, for example, wave propagation and geodynamic modelling. At present, however, AD tools appear to be little used in the geosciences. Here we report on experiments using a state of the art AD tool to perform source to source code translation in a range of geoscience problems. These include calculating derivatives for Gibbs free energy minimization, seismic receiver function inversion, and seismic ray tracing. Issues of accuracy and efficiency are discussed