TREATMENT HETEROGENEITY AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IN LINEAR MIXED EFFECTS MODELS

Studies commonly focus on estimating a mean treatment effect in a population. However, in some applications the variability of treatment effects across individual units may help to characterize the overall effect of a treatment across the population. Consider a set of treatments, {T,C}, where T denotes some treatment that might be applied to an experimental unit and C denotes a control. For each of N experimental units, the duplet {rTᵢ,rCᵢ}, i = 1,2, … , N, represents the potential response of the i th experimental unit if treatment were applied and the response of the experimental unit if control were applied, respectively. The causal effect of T compared to C is the difference between the two potential responses, rTᵢ - rCᵢ. Much work has been done to elucidate the statistical properties of a causal effect, given a set of particular assumptions. Gadbury and others have reported on this for some simple designs and primarily focused on finite population randomization based inference. When designs become more complicated, the randomization based approach becomes increasingly difficult. Since linear mixed effects models are particularly useful for modeling data from complex designs, their role in modeling treatment heterogeneity is investigated. It is shown that an individual treatment effect can be conceptualized as a linear combination of fixed treatment effects and random effects. The random effects are assumed to have variance components specified in a mixed effects “potential outcomes” model when both potential outcomes, rT, rC, are variables in the model. The variance of the individual causal effect is used to quantify treatment heterogeneity. Post treatment assignment, however, only one of the two potential outcomes is observable for a unit. It is then shown that the variance component for treatment heterogeneity becomes non-estimable in an analysis of observed data. Furthermore, estimable variance components in the observed data model are demonstrated to arise from linear combinations of the non-estimable variance components in the potential outcomes model. Mixed effects models are considered in context of a particular design in an effort to illuminate the loss of information incurred when moving from a potential outcomes framework to an observed data analysis

Method and apparatus for testing surface characteristics of a material

A method, apparatus and system for testing characteristics of a material sample is provided. The system includes an apparatus configured to house the material test sample while defining a sealed volume against a surface of the material test sample. A source of pressurized fluid is in communication with, and configured to pressurize, the sealed volume. A load applying apparatus is configured to apply a defined load to the material sample while the sealed volume is monitored for leakage of the pressurized fluid. Thus, the inducement of surface defects such as microcracking and crazing may be detected and their effects analyzed for a given material. The material test samples may include laminar structures formed of, for example, carbon cloth phenolic, glass cloth phenolic, silica cloth phenolic materials or carbon-carbon materials. In one embodiment the system may be configured to analyze the material test sample while an across-ply loading is applied thereto

Femtosecond laser photo-response of Ge23Sb7S70 films

Ternary chalcogenide glass films from identical parent bulk glasses were prepared by thermal evaporation (TE) and pulsed laser deposition (PLD) and subjected to 810-nm femtosecond laser exposure at both kHz and MHz repetition rates. The exposure-induced modification on the glass film\u27s surface profile, refractive index, and structural properties were shown to be a function of laser irradiance, the number of laser pulses per focal spot, and repetition rate. Film response was shown to be related to deposition technique-related density and the number of glass bonds within the irradiated focal volume. The induced changes resulted from a reduction in glass network connectivity among GeS4/2, GeS4, S-S and S3Ge-S-GeS3 units

An Empirical Non-TNT Approach to Launch Vehicle Explosion Modeling

In an effort to increase crew survivability from catastrophic explosions of Launch Vehicles (LV), a study was conducted to determine the best method for predicting LV explosion environments in the near field. After reviewing such methods as TNT equivalence, Vapor Cloud Explosion (VCE) theory, and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), it was determined that the best approach for this study was to assemble all available empirical data from full scale launch vehicle explosion tests and accidents. Approximately 25 accidents or full-scale tests were found that had some amount of measured blast wave, thermal, or fragment explosion environment characteristics. Blast wave overpressure was found to be much lower in the near field than predicted by most TNT equivalence methods. Additionally, fragments tended to be larger, fewer, and slower than expected if the driving force was from a high explosive type event. In light of these discoveries, a simple model for cryogenic rocket explosions is presented. Predictions from this model encompass all known applicable full scale launch vehicle explosion data. Finally, a brief description of on-going analysis and testing to further refine the launch vehicle explosion environment is discussed

An Experimental Study of Unconfined Hydrogen/Oxygen and Hydrogen/Air Explosions

Development tests are being conducted to characterize unconfined Hydrogen/air and Hydrogen/Oxygen blast characteristics. Most of the existing experiments for these types of explosions address contained explosions, like shock tubes. Therefore, the Hydrogen Unconfined Combustion Test Apparatus (HUCTA) has been developed as a gaseous combustion test device for determining the relationship between overpressure, impulse, and flame speed at various mixture ratios for unconfined reactions of hydrogen/oxygen and hydrogen/air. The system consists of a central platform plumbed to inject and mix component gasses into an attached translucent bag or balloon while monitoring hydrogen concentration. All tests are ignited with a spark with plans to introduce higher energy ignition sources in the future. Surrounding the platform are 9 blast pressure "Pencil" probes. Two high-speed cameras are used to observe flame speed within the combustion zone. The entire system is raised approx. 6 feet off the ground to remove any ground reflection from the measurements. As of this writing greater than 175 tests have been performed and include Design of Experiments test sets. Many of these early tests have used bags or balloons between approx. 340L and approx. 1850L to quantify the effect of gaseous mixture ratio on the properties of interest. All data acquisition is synchronized between the high-speed cameras, the probes, and the ignition system to observe flame and shock propagation. Successful attempts have been made to couple the pressure profile with the progress of the flame front within the combustion zone by placing a probe within the bag. Overpressure and impulse data obtained from these tests are used to anchor engineering analysis tools, CFD models and in the development of blast and fragment acceleration models

Development of novel integrated bio/chemical sensor systems using chalcogenide glass materials

This paper reviews ongoing progress in the design and fabrication of new, on-chip, low loss planar molecular sensors. We report the details of device design, material selection and manufacturing processes used to realise high-index-contrast (HIC), compact micro-disk resonators. These structures have been fabricated in thermally evaporated As- and Ge-based chalcogenide glass films with PDMS (polydimethylsiloxane) micro-fluidic channels using standard UV lithography. Discussed are findings that demonstrate that our novel chalcogenide-based micro-fluidic device can be used as highly sensitive refractive index sensors

An Experimental Study of Launch Vehicle Propellant Tank Fragmentation

In order to better understand launch vehicle abort environments, Bangham Engineering Inc. (BEi) built a test assembly that fails sample materials (steel and aluminum plates of various alloys and thicknesses) under quasi-realistic vehicle failure conditions. Samples are exposed to pressures similar to those expected in vehicle failure scenarios and filmed at high speed to increase understanding of complex fracture mechanics. After failure, the fragments of each test sample are collected, catalogued and reconstructed for further study. Post-test analysis shows that aluminum samples consistently produce fewer fragments than steel samples of similar thickness and at similar failure pressures. Video analysis shows that there are several failure 'patterns' that can be observed for all test samples based on configuration. Fragment velocities are also measured from high speed video data. Sample thickness and material are analyzed for trends in failure pressure. Testing is also done with cryogenic and noncryogenic liquid loading on the samples. It is determined that liquid loading and cryogenic temperatures can decrease material fragmentation for sub-flight thicknesses. A method is developed for capture and collection of fragments that is greater than 97 percent effective in recovering sample mass, addressing the generation of tiny fragments. Currently, samples tested do not match actual launch vehicle propellant tank material thicknesses because of size constraints on test assembly, but test findings are used to inform the design and build of another, larger test assembly with the purpose of testing actual vehicle flight materials that include structural components such as iso-grid and friction stir welds

An Overview of the Launch Vehicle Blast Environments Development Efforts

NASA has been funding an ongoing development program to characterize the explosive environments produced during a catastrophic launch vehicle accident. These studies and small-scale tests are focused on the near field environments that threaten the crew. The results indicate that these environments are unlikely to result in immediate destruction of the crew modules. The effort began as an independent assessment by NASA safety organizations, followed by the Ares program and NASA Engineering and Safety Center and now as a Space Launch Systems (SLS) focused effort. The development effort is using the test and accident data available from public or NASA sources as well as focused scaled tests that are examining the fundamental aspects of uncontained explosions of Hydrogen and air and Hydrogen and Oxygen. The primary risk to the crew appears to be the high-energy fragments and these are being characterized for the SLS. The development efforts will characterize the thermal environment of the explosions as well to ensure that the risk is well understood and to document the overall energy balance of an explosion. The effort is multi-path in that analytical, computational and focused testing is being used to develop the knowledge to understand potential SLS explosions. This is an ongoing program with plans that expand the development from fundamental testing at small-scale levels to large-scale tests that can be used to validate models for commercial programs. The ultimate goal is to develop a knowledge base that can be used by vehicle designers to maximize crew survival in an explosion

Studies on structural, electrical, and optical properties of Cu doped As-Se-Te chalcogenide glasses

Cu doped chalcogenide (ChG) glassy films in the As-Se-Te glass system have been prepared using thermal evaporation techniques. Single-source evaporation from bulk (1-x) As(0.40)Se(0.35)Te(0.25)+x Cu glasses with x=0.05, 0.075, 0.10, 0.125, and 0.15, as well as dual-source coevaporation from As-chalcogenide and Cu-chalcogenide binary glasses as source materials, has been explored. We have shown that it is not possible to deposit high concentration Cu doped ChG glassy films, from the Cu doped bulk samples using single-source evaporation. However, using the dual-source coevaporation technique, we have demonstrated that the films can be doped with high concentrations of Cu. Micro-Raman spectroscopy has been utilized to verify that Cu is introduced into the glass network without disrupting the basic As-chalcogen units. Optical measurements have shown that introduction of Cu decreases the band gap of As-Se-Te glasses. The electrical properties of the investigated films have been measured at different temperatures and it has been shown that Cu incorporation in the As-Se-Te glass system vastly improves electrical conductivity. Moreover, we have shown that the temperature dependence of electrical conductivity can be fitted assuming variable range hopping between states near the Fermi level

Decomposing reflectance spectra to track gross primary production in a subalpine evergreen forest

Photosynthesis by terrestrial plants represents the majority of CO₂ uptake on Earth, yet it is difficult to measure directly from space. Estimation of gross primary production (GPP) from remote sensing indices represents a primary source of uncertainty, in particular for observing seasonal variations in evergreen forests. Recent vegetation remote sensing techniques have highlighted spectral regions sensitive to dynamic changes in leaf/needle carotenoid composition, showing promise for tracking seasonal changes in photosynthesis of evergreen forests. However, these have mostly been investigated with intermittent field campaigns or with narrow-band spectrometers in these ecosystems. To investigate this potential, we continuously measured vegetation reflectance (400–900 nm) using a canopy spectrometer system, PhotoSpec, mounted on top of an eddy-covariance flux tower in a subalpine evergreen forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We analyzed driving spectral components in the measured canopy reflectance using both statistical and process-based approaches. The decomposed spectral components co-varied with carotenoid content and GPP, supporting the interpretation of the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and the chlorophyll/carotenoid index (CCI). Although the entire 400–900 nm range showed additional spectral changes near the red edge, it did not provide significant improvements in GPP predictions. We found little seasonal variation in both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the near-infrared vegetation index (NIRv) in this ecosystem. In addition, we quantitatively determined needle-scale chlorophyll-to-carotenoid ratios as well as anthocyanin contents using full-spectrum inversions, both of which were tightly correlated with seasonal GPP changes. Reconstructing GPP from vegetation reflectance using partial least-squares regression (PLSR) explained approximately 87 % of the variability in observed GPP. Our results linked the seasonal variation in reflectance to the pool size of photoprotective pigments, highlighting all spectral locations within 400–900 nm associated with GPP seasonality in evergreen forests