8,464 research outputs found
On Modeling and Estimation for the Relative Risk and Risk Difference
A common problem in formulating models for the relative risk and risk
difference is the variation dependence between these parameters and the
baseline risk, which is a nuisance model. We address this problem by proposing
the conditional log odds-product as a preferred nuisance model. This novel
nuisance model facilitates maximum-likelihood estimation, but also permits
doubly-robust estimation for the parameters of interest. Our approach is
illustrated via simulations and a data analysis.Comment: To appear in Journal of the American Statistical Association: Theory
and Method
Congenial Causal Inference with Binary Structural Nested Mean Models
Structural nested mean models (SNMMs) are among the fundamental tools for
inferring causal effects of time-dependent exposures from longitudinal studies.
With binary outcomes, however, current methods for estimating multiplicative
and additive SNMM parameters suffer from variation dependence between the
causal SNMM parameters and the non-causal nuisance parameters. Estimating
methods for logistic SNMMs do not suffer from this dependence. Unfortunately,
in contrast with the multiplicative and additive models, unbiased estimation of
the causal parameters of a logistic SNMM rely on additional modeling
assumptions even when the treatment probabilities are known. These difficulties
have hindered the uptake of SNMMs in epidemiological practice, where binary
outcomes are common. We solve the variation dependence problem for the binary
multiplicative SNMM by a reparametrization of the non-causal nuisance
parameters. Our novel nuisance parameters are variation independent of the
causal parameters, and hence allows the fitting of a multiplicative SNMM by
unconstrained maximum likelihood. It also allows one to construct true (i.e.
congenial) doubly robust estimators of the causal parameters. Along the way, we
prove that an additive SNMM with binary outcomes does not admit a variation
independent parametrization, thus explaining why we restrict ourselves to the
multiplicative SNMM
Nested Markov Properties for Acyclic Directed Mixed Graphs
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models may be characterized in at least four
different ways: via a factorization, the d-separation criterion, the
moralization criterion, and the local Markov property. As pointed out by Robins
(1986, 1999), Verma and Pearl (1990), and Tian and Pearl (2002b), marginals of
DAG models also imply equality constraints that are not conditional
independences. The well-known `Verma constraint' is an example. Constraints of
this type were used for testing edges (Shpitser et al., 2009), and an efficient
marginalization scheme via variable elimination (Shpitser et al., 2011).
We show that equality constraints like the `Verma constraint' can be viewed
as conditional independences in kernel objects obtained from joint
distributions via a fixing operation that generalizes conditioning and
marginalization. We use these constraints to define, via Markov properties and
a factorization, a graphical model associated with acyclic directed mixed
graphs (ADMGs). We show that marginal distributions of DAG models lie in this
model, prove that a characterization of these constraints given in (Tian and
Pearl, 2002b) gives an alternative definition of the model, and finally show
that the fixing operation we used to define the model can be used to give a
particularly simple characterization of identifiable causal effects in hidden
variable graphical causal models.Comment: 67 pages (not including appendix and references), 8 figure
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