Predictive verification for the design of partially exchangeable multi-model ensembles

This is the final version. Available on open access from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this recordThe performance of an ensemble forecast, as measured by scoring rules, depends on its number of members. Under the assumption of ensemble member exchangeability, ensemble-adjusted scores provide unbiased estimates of the ensemble-size effect. In this study, the concept of ensemble-adjusted scores is revisited and exploited in the general context of multi-model ensemble forecasting. In particular, an ensemblesize adjustment is proposed for the continuous ranked probability score in a multi-model ensemble setting. The method requires that the ensemble forecasts satisfy generalized multi-model exchangeability conditions. These conditions do not require the models themselves to be exchangeable. The adjusted scores are tested here on a dual-resolution ensemble, an ensemble which combines members drawn from the same numerical model but run at two different grid resolutions. It is shown that performance of different ensemble combinations can be robustly estimated based on a small subset of members from each model. At no additional cost, the ensemble-size effect is investigated not only considering the pooling of potential extra-members but also including the impact of optimal weighting strategies. With simple and efficient tools, the proposed methodology paves the way for predictive verification of multi-model ensemble forecasts; the derived statistics can provide guidance for the design of future operational ensemble configurations without having to run additional ensemble forecast experiments for all the potential configurations

Child Well-being in the Pacific Rim

This study extends previous efforts to compare the well-being of children using multi-dimensional indicators derived from sample survey and administrative series to thirteen countries in the Pacific Rim. The framework for the analysis of child well-being is to organise 46 indicators into 21 components and organise the components into 6 domains: material situation, health, education, subjective well-being, living environment, as well as risk and safety. Overall, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan have the highest child well-being and Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines the lowest. However, there are substantial variations between the domains. Japan and Korea perform best on the material well-being of children and also do well on health and education but they have the lowest subjective well-being among their children by some margin. There is a relationship between child well-being and GDP per capita but children in China have higher well-being than you would expect given their GDP and children in Australia have lower well-being. The analysis is constrained by missing data particularly that the Health Behaviour of School-Aged Children Survey is not undertaken in any of these countries

Conformal mapping methods for interfacial dynamics

The article provides a pedagogical review aimed at graduate students in materials science, physics, and applied mathematics, focusing on recent developments in the subject. Following a brief summary of concepts from complex analysis, the article begins with an overview of continuous conformal-map dynamics. This includes problems of interfacial motion driven by harmonic fields (such as viscous fingering and void electromigration), bi-harmonic fields (such as viscous sintering and elastic pore evolution), and non-harmonic, conformally invariant fields (such as growth by advection-diffusion and electro-deposition). The second part of the article is devoted to iterated conformal maps for analogous problems in stochastic interfacial dynamics (such as diffusion-limited aggregation, dielectric breakdown, brittle fracture, and advection-diffusion-limited aggregation). The third part notes that all of these models can be extended to curved surfaces by an auxilliary conformal mapping from the complex plane, such as stereographic projection to a sphere. The article concludes with an outlook for further research.Comment: 37 pages, 12 (mostly color) figure

Ballistic Annihilation

Ballistic annihilation with continuous initial velocity distributions is investigated in the framework of Boltzmann equation. The particle density and the rms velocity decay as $c=t^{-\alpha}$ and $=t^{-\beta}$, with the exponents depending on the initial velocity distribution and the spatial dimension. For instance, in one dimension for the uniform initial velocity distribution we find $\beta=0.230472...$. We also solve the Boltzmann equation for Maxwell particles and very hard particles in arbitrary spatial dimension. These solvable cases provide bounds for the decay exponents of the hard sphere gas.Comment: 4 RevTeX pages and 1 Eps figure; submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Cohomology of the Lie Superalgebra of Contact Vector Fields on R1∣1\mathbb{R}^{1|1} and Deformations of the Superspace of Symbols

Following Feigin and Fuchs, we compute the first cohomology of the Lie superalgebra $\mathcal{K}(1)$ of contact vector fields on the (1,1)-dimensional real superspace with coefficients in the superspace of linear differential operators acting on the superspaces of weighted densities. We also compute the same, but $\mathfrak{osp}(1|2)$-relative, cohomology. We explicitly give 1-cocycles spanning these cohomology. We classify generic formal $\mathfrak{osp}(1|2)$-trivial deformations of the $\mathcal{K}(1)$-module structure on the superspaces of symbols of differential operators. We prove that any generic formal $\mathfrak{osp}(1|2)$-trivial deformation of this $\mathcal{K}(1)$-module is equivalent to a polynomial one of degree $\leq4$. This work is the simplest superization of a result by Bouarroudj [On $\mathfrak{sl}$(2)-relative cohomology of the Lie algebra of vector fields and differential operators, J. Nonlinear Math. Phys., no.1, (2007), 112--127]. Further superizations correspond to $\mathfrak{osp}(N|2)$-relative cohomology of the Lie superalgebras of contact vector fields on $1|N$-dimensional superspace

Exact Solution of Two-Species Ballistic Annihilation with General Pair-Reaction Probability

The reaction process $A+B->C$ is modelled for ballistic reactants on an infinite line with particle velocities $v_A=c$ and $v_B=-c$ and initially segregated conditions, i.e. all A particles to the left and all B particles to the right of the origin. Previous, models of ballistic annihilation have particles that always react on contact, i.e. pair-reaction probability $p=1$. The evolution of such systems are wholly determined by the initial distribution of particles and therefore do not have a stochastic dynamics. However, in this paper the generalisation is made to $p<1$, allowing particles to pass through each other without necessarily reacting. In this way, the A and B particle domains overlap to form a fluctuating, finite-sized reaction zone where the product C is created. Fluctuations are also included in the currents of A and B particles entering the overlap region, thereby inducing a stochastic motion of the reaction zone as a whole. These two types of fluctuations, in the reactions and particle currents, are characterised by the `intrinsic reaction rate', seen in a single system, and the `extrinsic reaction rate', seen in an average over many systems. The intrinsic and extrinsic behaviours are examined and compared to the case of isotropically diffusing reactants.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figures, typos correcte

Role of a Lateral Orbital Frontal Cortex-Basolateral Amygdala Circuit in Cue-Induced Cocaine-Seeking Behavior

Cocaine addiction is a disease characterized by chronic relapse despite long periods of abstinence. The lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC) and basolateral amygdala (BLA) promote cocaine-seeking behavior in response to drug-associated conditioned stimuli (CS) and share dense reciprocal connections. Hence, we hypothesized that monosynaptic projections between these brain regions mediate CS-induced cocaine-seeking behavior. Male Sprague-Dawley rats received bilateral infusions of a Cre-dependent adeno-associated viral (AAV) vector expressing enhanced halorhodopsin 3.0 fused with a reporter protein (NpHR-mCherry) or a control AAV (mCherry) plus optic fiber implants into the lOFC (Experiment 1) or BLA (Experiment 2). The same rats also received bilateral infusions of a retrogradely transported AAV vector expressing Cre recombinase (Retro-Cre-GFP) into the BLA (Experiment 1) or lOFC (Experiment 2). Thus, NpHR-mCherry or mCherry expression was targeted to lOFC neurons that project to the BLA or to BLA neurons that project to the lOFC in different groups. Rats were trained to lever press for cocaine infusions paired with 5-s CS presentations. Responding was then extinguished. At test, response-contingent CS presentation was discretely coupled with optogenetic inhibition (5-s laser activation) or no optogenetic inhibition while lever responding was assessed without cocaine/food reinforcement. Optogenetic inhibition of lOFC to BLA, but not BLA to lOFC, projections in the NpHR-mCherry groups disrupted CS-induced reinstatement of cocaine-seeking behavior relative to (i) no optogenetic inhibition or (ii) manipulations in mCherry control or (iii) NpHR-mCherry food control groups. These findings suggest that the lOFC sends requisite input to the BLA, via monosynaptic connections, to promote CS-induced cocaine-seeking behavior

Big sugar in southern Africa : rural development and the perverted potential of sugar/ethanol exports

This paper asks how investment in large-scale sugar cane production has contributed, and will contribute, to rural development in southern Africa. Taking a case study of the South African company Illovo in Zambia, the argument is made that the potential for greater tax revenue, domestic competition, access to resources and wealth distribution from sugar/ethanol production have all been perverted and with relatively little payoff in wage labour opportunities in return. If the benefits of agro-exports cannot be so easily assumed, then the prospective 'balance sheet' of biofuels needs to be re-examined. In this light, the paper advocates smaller-scale agrarian initiatives

Opiates Transdeactivate Chemokine Receptors: δ and μ Opiate Receptor- Mediated Heterologous Desensitization

An intact chemotactic response is vital for leukocyte trafficking and host defense. Opiates are known to exert a number of immunomodulating effects in vitro and in vivo, and we sought to determine whether they were capable of inhibiting chemokine-induced directional migration of human leukocytes, and if so, to ascertain the mechanism involved. The endogenous opioid met- enkephalin induced monocyte chemotaxis in a pertussis toxin-sensitive manner. Metenkephalin, as well as morphine, inhibited IL-8-induced chemotaxis of human neutrophils and macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-1α, regulated upon activation, normal T expressed and secreted (RANTES), and monocyte chemoattractant protein 1, but not MIP-1β-induced chemotaxis of human monocytes. This inhibition of chemotaxis was mediated by δ and μ but not κ G protein-coupled opiate receptors. Calcium flux induced by chemokines was unaffected by met-enkephalin pretreatment. Unlike other opiate-induced changes in leukocyte function, the inhibition of chemotaxis was not mediated by nitric oxide. Opiates induced phosphorylation of the chemokine receptors CXCR1 and CXCR2, but neither induced internalization of chemokine receptors nor perturbed chemokine binding. Thus, inhibition of chemokine-induced chemotaxis by opiates is due to heterologous desensitization through phosphorylation of chemokine receptors. This may contribute to the defects in host defense seen with opiate abuse and has important implications for immunomodulation induced by several endogenous neuropeptides which act through G protein-coupled receptors