Approaches to evaluating model quality across different regime types in environmental and public health governance

A reliance on mathematical modelling is a defining feature of modern global environmental and public health governance. Initially hailed as the vanguard of a new era of rational policy-making, models are now habitually subject to critical analyses. Their quality, in other words, is routinely queried, yet what exactly is quality in this context? The prevailing paradigm views model quality as a multi-dimensional concept, encompassing technical dimensions (e.g. precision and bias), value judgments, problem-framing, treatment of 'deep' uncertainties, and pragmatic features of particular decision contexts. Whilst those technical dimensions are relatively simple to characterise, the broader dimensions of quality are less easily formalised and as a result are difficult to take account of during model construction and evaluation. Here, we present a typology of governance regimes (risk-based, precautionary, adaptive and participatory) that helps make explicit what these broader dimensions of model quality are, and sketches out how the emphasis placed on them differs by regime-type. We show that these regime types hold distinct positions on what constitutes sound evidence, on how that evidence should be used in policy-making, and to what social ends. As such, a model may be viewed within one regime as providing legitimate evidence for action, be down-weighted elsewhere for reflecting a flawed problem-framing, and outright rejected in another jurisdiction on the grounds that it doesn't cohere with the preferred ethical framework for decision-making. We illustrate these dynamics by applying our typology to a range of policy domains, emphasising both the disconnects that can occur, as well as the ways that modellers have adapted their practices to ensure that their evidence is brought to bear on policy problems across diverse regime types

Uptake and turnover of mono-iodinated thyroid hormone metabolites by PCCL3 thyrocytes

Tyrosine and phenolic ring de-iodination of thyroid hormones (TH) is crucial for regulating their physiological activity. Furthermore, reactions such as de-carboxylation to thyronamines (TAM) and de-amination to thyroacetic acids (TAc) produce TH metabolites (THM) with distinct biological properties. This needs to be considered when studying effects of TH and THM. The accurate and precise quantitative analysis of TH and THM in cell culture supernatants and cell lysates are key procedures required for studying the in vitro metabolism of TH. We report here the development of a liquid-liquid extraction/isotope dilution-liquid chromatography-electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (LC- MS/MS) method for the quantification of 9 thyronines (TN) and 6 TAM in human hepatocellular carcinoma Hep G2 cell lysate extracts. In addition, we adapted the method to quantify TH, TAM and TAc, in cell lysates of FBS-depleted rat thyroid epithelium PCCL3 cells. The methods for both cell lines were validated by rigorous assessment of linearity, limits of quantification and detection (LLOQ and LLOD respectively), intra- and inter-day accuracy, precision, process efficiency (PE), matrix effect (ME) and relative recovery (RE). Calibration curves covering 11 concentrations (based on 400 μl of lysate) were linear in the range 0.016–50 nM and 0.010–50 nM for Hep G2 and PCCL3 cells respectively. The lower limits of quantification were in the range 0.031 to 1 nM. We applied the PCCL3 version of the LC-MS/MS method to the analysis of lysed cell extracts from PCCL3 cells that had been incubated with 3-iodo-L-thyronine (T1), 3-iodothyronamine (3-T1AM) and 3-iodothyroacetic acid (3-T1Ac). Over the course of 30 minutes incubation 3-T1AM was de-iodinated to 4-[4-(2-aminoethylphenoxy)]phenol (thyronamine, T0AM) and de-aminated to 3-T1Ac respectively, whilst T1 underwent de-iodination to T0. This data indicates avid metabolism of these mono-iodinated compounds and the utility of LC-MS/MS to quantify such cellular metabolism

A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California

Seismic hazard models are important for society, feeding into building codes and hazard mitigation efforts. These models, however, rest on many uncertain assumptions and are difficult to test observationally because of the long recurrence times of large earthquakes. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a potentially helpful tool, but they face a vast range of fundamental scientific uncertainties. We compare a physics-based earthquake simulator against the latest seismic hazard model for California. Using only uniform parameters in the simulator, we find strikingly good agreement of the long-term shaking hazard compared with the California model. This ability to replicate statistically based seismic hazard estimates by a physics-based model cross-validates standard methods and provides a new alternative approach needing fewer inputs and assumptions for estimating hazard

A Precision Calculation of the Next-to-Leading Order Energy-Energy Correlation Function

The O(alpha_s^2) contribution to the Energy-Energy Correlation function (EEC) of e+e- -> hadrons is calculated to high precision and the results are shown to be larger than previously reported. The consistency with the leading logarithm approximation and the accurate cancellation of infrared singularities exhibited by the new calculation suggest that it is reliable. We offer evidence that the source of the disagreement with previous results lies in the regulation of double singularities.Comment: 6 pages, uuencoded LaTeX and one eps figure appended Complete paper as PostScript file (125 kB) available at: http://www.phys.washington.edu/~clay/eecpaper1/paper.htm

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

On 15 June 2010, a M_w5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 M_w7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate-state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate-state models of time-dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity

Delayed Seismicity Rate Changes Controlled by Static Stress Transfer

On 15 June 2010, a M_w5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 M_w7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate-state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate-state models of time-dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity