Sequential Monte Carlo with transformations

This paper examines methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. For this, we use sequential Monte Carlo samplers, introducing the innovation of using deterministic transformations to move particles effectively between target distributions with different dimensions. This approach, combined with adaptive methods, yields an extremely flexible and general algorithm for Bayesian model comparison that is suitable for use in applications where the acceptance rate in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo is low. We use this approach on model comparison for mixture models, and for inferring coalescent trees sequentially, as data arrives

SOME TESTS OF THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF COOPERATIVES: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO COTTON GINNING

Little progress has been made in testing the often conflicting hypotheses generated from theoretical research on cooperatives. This paper addresses the deficiency by describing and applying (to California cotton ginning cooperatives) a methodology to test key hypotheses concerning (a) cooperativesÂ’ price-output equilibrium, (b) allocative efficiency, and (c) utilization of capital inputs. The empirical results (a) are consistent with predictions from the game theory model of cooperative behavior, (b) reject the null hypothesis of absolute allocative efficiency, and (c) indicate absolute overutilization of capital inputs among the sample cooperatives.Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries,

Breeding success of, & habitat use by, eider ducks

The study covers several facets of the ecology of the Eider ducks of the Northumberland coast between Hadston Carrs and Craster between 9 May and 1 August 1990. Special attention was given to the breeding success of the Coquet island population. Nesting success is high, in excess of 90%, however fledging success is low (<6%) due to high duckling mortality. Starvation and large gull predation are believed to be the media responsible. The uneven distribution of ducklings along the coast is due to differing food availabilty and the ability of ducklings to take different sized prey items as they mature. It was found that both duckling group size and the number of ducklings per attendant female fell as the ducklings aged, reflecting the over-riding importance of duckling mortality in determining these statistics. Significant relationships were also found between duckling activity and duckling age; duckling activity and sea surface roughness; and duckling activity and time relative to low tide. Adult birds are shown to have a feeding pattern determined by the tidal cycle (feeding was not related to the time of day).The spatial variation in adult bird numbers reflects differing distance from the Coquet Island breeding centre and the relative availability of suitable feeding habitat. It is concluded that the adult birds attending young in Amble harbour are in a sub-optimal feeding environment. Fluctuations in overall population and sex ratio in the study area, are due primarily to the female's role as egg incubator. The differences in the pattern of fluctuation between the northern and southern halves of the study area are a reflection of distance from the breeding centre on Coquet Island. An overall, non-breeding season, sex ratio of 1.17 was found

Clinical Legal Education in Dutch Legal Culture: Clashes of Tradition, Tolerance, and Progress in Global Law\u27s Capital

This paper examines the current context of legal education within Dutch legal culture as a case study focusing on the growing role of clinical legal education in the Netherlands, a progressive country in Western Europe, where traditional legal education has held sway for centuries. The Dutch experience with clinical legal education, though limited, is expanding even as the traditional apprenticeship phase of law training there is undergoing major reform, responsive to the growth of big law. These reforms are largely attributable to a history of innovation and openness in Dutch legal culture, one dimension of which is the general acknowledgment that the Netherlands has become the international law capital of the world. Dutch law schools offer four distinct models of legal clinics, each examined in some detail here