A Term Structure Decomposition of the Australian Yield Curve

We use data on coupon-bearing Australian Government bonds and overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to estimate risk-free zero-coupon yield and forward curves for Australia from 1992 to 2007. These curves, and analysts’ forecasts of future interest rates, are then used to fit an affine term structure model to Australian interest rates, with the aim of decomposing forward rates into expected future overnight cash rates plus term premia. The expected future short rates derived from the model are on average unbiased, fluctuating around the average of actual observed short rates. Since the adoption of inflation targeting and the entrenchment of low and stable inflation expectations, term premia appear to have declined in levels and displayed smaller fluctuations in response to economic shocks. This suggests that the market has become less uncertain about the path of future interest rates. Towards the end of the sample period, term premia have been negative, suggesting that investors may have been willing to pay a premium for Commonwealth Government securities. Due to the complexity of the model and the difficulty of calibrating it to data, the results should not be interpreted too precisely. Nevertheless, the model does provide a potentially useful decomposition of recent changes in the expected path of interest rates and term premia.expected future short rate; term premia; term structure decomposition; affine term structure model; zero-coupon yield

Narrowing the achievement gap : what and how schools learn through involvement in the specialist schools achievement programme – Part 1

This report was commissioned by the Specialist Schools and Academies Trust (SSAT) to find out how schools used the Specialist Schools Achievement Programme (SSAP) to narrow the gap between the academic attainment and wider achievements of students from disadvantaged and more advantaged backgrounds. The study was undertaken by gathering short case studies from 70 schools participating in the programme and identifying 6 schools that had made notable progress for in-depth case study

Andrew Fletcher, England, Europe and the Search for a New British Polity

The purpose of this paper is to locate the actions and activities of Andrew Fletcher in a wider British and European context as this is essential to understanding the main thrust of his intellectual assault on the incorporating Union of 1707

The Variance Gamma (VG) Model with Long Range Dependence

This thesis mainly builds on the Variance Gamma (VG) model for financial assets over time of Madan & Seneta (1990) and Madan, Carr & Chang (1998), although the model based on the t distribution championed in Heyde & Leonenko (2005) is also given attention. The primary contribution of the thesis is the development of VG models, and the extension of t models, which accommodate a dependence structure in asset price returns. In particular it has become increasingly clear that while returns (log price increments) of historical financial asset time series appear as a reasonable approximation of independent and identically distributed data, squared and absolute returns do not. In fact squared and absolute returns show evidence of being long range dependent through time, with autocorrelation functions that are still significant after 50 to 100 lags. Given this evidence against the assumption of independent returns, it is important that models for financial assets be able to accommodate a dependence structure

A New Learning and Skills Landscape? The central role of the Learning and Skills Council

This is the first paper from a project which is part of the Economic and Social Research Council’s Programme of research into “Teaching and Learning”. The project, entitled “The Impact of Policy on Learning and Inclusion in the New Learning and Skills Sector”, explores what impact the efforts to create a single learning and skills system (LSS) are having on teaching, learning, assessment and inclusion for three marginalised groups of post-16 learners. Drawing primarily on policy documents and 62 in-depth interviews with national, regional and local policymakers in England, the paper points to a complex, confusing and constantly changing landscape; in particular, it deals with the formation, early years and recent reorganisation of the Learning and Skills Council (LSC), its roles, relations with Government, its rather limited power, its partnerships and likely futures. While the formation of a more unified LSS is broadly seen as a necessary step in overcoming the fragmentation and inequalities of the previous post-16 sector, interviewees also highlighted problems, some of which may not simply abate with the passing of time. Political expectations of change are high, but the LSC and its partners are expected to carry through ‘transformational’ strategies without the necessary ‘tools for the job’. In addition, some features of the LSS policy landscape still remain unreformed or need to be reorganised. The LSC and its partners are at the receiving end of a series of policy drivers (eg planning, funding, targets, inspection and initiatives) that may have partial or even perverse effects on the groups of marginalised learners we are studying

Perennial pastures for marginal farming country in southern Queensland. 1. Grass establishment techniques

Efficient ways to re-establish pastures are needed on land that requires a rotation between pastures and crops. We conducted trials in southern inland Queensland with a range of tropical perennial grasses sown into wheat stubble that was modified in various ways. Differing seedbed preparations involved cultivation or herbicide sprays, with or without fertilizer at sowing. Seed was broadcast and sowing time ranged from spring through to autumn on 3 different soil types. Seed quality and post-sowing rainfall were major determinants of the density of sown grass plants in the first year. Light cultivation sometimes enhanced establishment compared with herbicide spraying of standing stubble, most often on harder-setting soils. A nitrogen + phosphorus mixed fertilizer rarely produced any improvement in sown grass establishment and sometimes increased weed competition. The effects were similar for all types of grass seed from hairy fascicles to large, smooth panicoid seeds and minute Eragrostis seeds. There was a strong inverse relationship between the initial density of sown grass established and the level of weed competition

Learners in the English Learning and Skills Sector: the implications of half-right policy assumptions

The English Learning and Skills Sector (LSS) contains a highly diverse range of learners and covers all aspects of post-16 learning with the exception of higher education. In the research on which this paper is based we are concerned with the effects of policy on three types of learners – unemployed adults attempting to improve their basic skills in community learning settings, younger learners on Level 1 and 2 courses in further education colleges and employees in basic skills provision in the workplace. What is distinctive about all three groups is that they have historically failed in, or been failed by, compulsory education. What is interesting is that they are constructed as 'problem learners' in learning and skills sector policy documents. We use data from 194 learner interviews, conducted during 2004/5, in 24 learning sites in London and the North East of England, to argue that government policy assumptions about these learners may only be 'half right'. We argue that such assumptions might be leading to half-right policy based on incomplete understandings or surface views of learner needs that are more politically constructed than real. We suggest that policy makers should focus more on systemic problems in the learning and skills sector and less on problematising groups of learners

‘Modernisation’ and the role of policy levers in the Learning and Skills Sector

This paper examines the changing use of policy levers in the English post-compulsory education and training system, often referred to as the Learning and Skills Sector. Policy steering by governments has increased significantly in recent years, bringing with it the development of new forms of arms-length regulation. In the English context these changes were expressed during the 1980s and 1990s through neo-liberal New Public Management and, since 1997, have been extended through the New Labour government’s project to further ‘modernise’ public services. We look here at the changing use of policy levers (focussing in particular on the role of targets, funding, inspection, planning and initiatives) over three historical phases, paying particular attention to developments since the formation of the Learning and Skills Council (LSC) in 2001. We conclude by considering the range of responses adopted by education professionals in this era of ‘modernisation’