Unemployment, Disequilibrium, and the Short Run Phillips Curve: An Econometric Approach

The paper specifies a disequilibrium model for the aggregate labor market consisting of demand and supply functions for labor, an adjustment equation for wages as well as for prices, a transactions equation and, finally, an equation that relates measured unemployment to vacancies and to excess demand. The model has a more sophisticated treatment of dynamics than earlier disequilibrium models, and uses measured unemployment as an endogenous variable. Two of the error terms are assumed to be serially correlated and the coefficients are estimated by maximum likelihood. The parameter estimates and the goodness-of-fit are satisfactory and the model's implications for the behavior of several important variables are sensible. Excess demand estimates computed in various ways are reasonable. The model is used to estimate the natural rate of unemployment as well as a short run Phillips curve. Finally, the stability properties ofthe model are analyzed by considering the eigenvalues of the system; they are found to have moduli less than one.

The Conflict Between Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Theories: The Case of the U.S. Labor Market

A fundamental controversy in labor economics is whether unemployment is better viewed as an equilibrium or disequilibrium phenomenon. The authors contend that answers to policy problems related to unemployment will depend on which of the two characterizations of the labor market is accepted. They note the effects of inflation, taxes, and unionization on unemployment and describe those factors\u27 effects on the equilibrium/disequilibrium question by presenting both equilibrium and disequilibrium models of the U.S. labor market.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1115/thumbnail.jp

The Theological Dimension of Community Life

xvi, 431 hal; 23,5 c

Is There Chronic Excess Supply of Labor? Designing a Statistical Test

In this paper we present and implement a statistical test of the hypothesis that the labor market has chronic excess supply. The procedure is to estimate a disequilibrium labor market model, and construct a test statistic based on the unconditional probability that there is excess supply each period. We find that the data reject the hypothesis of chronic excess supply. Hence, one cannot assume that all observations lie on the demand curve.

Some quantitative aspects of the economics journal literature

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Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91910/1/Kmenta-Criteria_Evaluation_Econometric_Models.pd

The effect of lifelong learning on men's wages

This paper develops a model of earnings and applies this to an examination of the effect of lifelong learning on men’s wages. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a variant of the mover–stayer model is developed in which hourly wages are either taken from a stationary distribution (movers) or closely related to the hourly wage one year earlier (stayers). Mover–stayer status is not observed, and we therefore model wages using an endogenous switching regression, estimated by maximum likelihood. Methodologically, the results support the mover–stayer characterisation since the restrictions required for the simpler specifications popular in the literature are rejected. Substantively, simulation of the estimated model shows some statistically significant effects from acquiring qualifications of a higher level than those previously held, but not from acquiring qualifications of the same level

Contributors

The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and the National Library of Estonia organized a Conference on Union Catalogs which took place in Tallinn, in the National Library of Estonia on October 17–19, 2002. The Conference presented and discussed analytical papers dealing with various aspects of designing and implementing union catalogs and shared cataloging systems as revealed through the experiences of Eastern European, Baltic and South African research libraries. Here you can find the texts of the conference papers and the list of contributors and participants.The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and the National Library of Estonia organized a Conference on Union Catalogs which took place in Tallinn, in the National Library of Estonia on October 17–19, 2002. The Conference presented and discussed analytical papers dealing with various aspects of designing and implementing union catalogs and shared cataloging systems as revealed through the experiences of Eastern European, Baltic and South African research libraries. Here you can find the texts of the conference papers and the list of contributors and participants