An assessment of the mantle and slab components in the magmas of an oceanic arc volcano: Raoul Volcano, Kermadec arc

Raoul Volcano occupies a simple oceanic subduction setting in the northern part of the Kermadec arc on the Pacific–Australian convergent plate boundary. The primary inputs to the magmatic system that feeds the volcano are a subduction component derived from the subducting old Pacific oceanic lithosphere and its veneer of pelagic sediment, and the overlying peridotitic mantle wedge. Conservative trace elements that are very incompatible during mantle melting are relatively depleted in Raoul lavas indicating a source that has been depleted during an earlier melting event. Major element co-variations indicate magma genesis by 25% near fractional melting of a mantle source that is weakly depleted (2% melt extraction) relative to a fertile MORB source. An important influence on the composition of the mantle component is progressive melt extraction coupled with minimal advection of fresh material into the sub-arc zone followed by melt extraction from a melting column beneath the spreading centre of an adjacent back arc basin. High field strength element and rare earth element systematics indicate involvement of a subduction-related component of constant composition. Two fluid components can be distinguished, one enriched in large ion lithophile elements inferred to be an aqueous fluid that is continuously added to the ascending melt column and the other a less mobile fluid that transfers Th. A homogeneous subduction-related component of constant composition and magnitude arises if the slab-derived flux migrates from the slab–mantle interface to the sub-arc melting column by repeated episodes of amphibole formation and decomposition its composition is then governed by the distribution coefficients of pyroxene and its magnitude by the degree of amphibole saturation of mantle peridotite. The results from Raoul Volcano are comparable to those from other oceanic subduction-related arcs such as South Sandwich and Marianas suggesting that this is a general model for oceanic arcs

Classification of Coastal Communities Reporting Commercial Fish Landings in the U.S. Northeast Region: Developing and Testing a Methodology

The National Marine Fisheries Service is required by law to conduct social impact assessments of communities impacted by fishery management plans. To facilitate this process, we developed a technique for grouping communities based on common sociocultural attributes. Multivariate data reduction techniques (e.g. principal component analyses, cluster analyses) were used to classify Northeast U.S. fishing communities based on census and fisheries data. The comparisons indicate that the clusters represent real groupings that can be verified with the profiles. We then selected communities representative of different values on these multivariate dimensions for in-depth analysis. The derived clusters are then compared based on more detailed data from fishing community profiles. Ground-truthing (e.g. visiting the communities and collecting primary information) a sample of communities from three clusters (two overlapping geographically) indicates that the more remote techniques are sufficient for typing the communities for further in-depth analyses. The in-depth analyses provide additional important information which we contend is representative of all communities within the cluster

PROGRESS IN ESTIMATING THE MARGINAL COSTS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

The unjust distributional consequences of climate change, and its potentially negative aggregate effect on economic growth and welfare are two reasons to be concerned about climate change. Our knowledge of the impact of climate change is incomplete. Monetary valuation is difficult and controversial. The effect of other developments on the impacts of climate change is largely speculative. Nonetheless, it can be shown that poorer countries and people are more vulnerable than are richer countries and people. A modest global warming is likely to have a net negative effect on poor economics in hot climates, but may have a positive effect on rich economies in temperate climates. If one counts dollars, the world aggregate impact may be positive. If one counts people, the world aggregate effect is probably negative. For more substantial warming, negative effects become more negative, and positive effects turn negative. The marginal costs of carbon dioxide emissions are uncertain and sensitive to assumptions that partially reflect ethical and methodological positions, but are unlikely to exceed $50 per tonne of carbon. The marginal costs of methane emission are likely to be less than$250/tCH4; the marginal costs of nitrous oxide emissions are probably lower than $7000/tN2O. Global warming potentials, the official manner to trade-off the various greenhouse gases, do not reflect, conceptually or numerically, the real tradeoffs in either a cost-benefit or a cost-effectiveness framework.Impacts of climate change, economic valuation, equity, marginal costs

The Symbiotic System SS73 17 Seen with Suzaku

We observed with Suzaku the symbiotic star SS73 17, motivated by the discovery by the INTEGRAL satellite and the Swift BAT survey that it emits hard X-rays. Our observations showed a highly-absorbed X-ray spectrum with NH > 10^23 cm-2, equivalent to A_V > 26, although the source has B magnitude 11.3 and is also bright in UV. The source also shows strong, narrow iron lines including fluorescent Fe K as well as Fe xxv and Fe xxvi. The X-ray spectrum can be fit with a thermal model including an absorption component that partially covers the source. Most of the equivalent width of the iron fluorescent line in this model can be explained as a combination of reprocessing in a dense absorber plus reflection off a white dwarf surface, but it is likely that the continuum is partially seen in reflection as well. Unlike other symbiotic systems that show hard X-ray emission (CH Cyg, RT Cru, T CrB, GX1+4), SS73 17 is not known to have shown nova-like optical variability, X-ray flashes, or pulsations, and has always shown faint soft X-ray emission. As a result, although it is likely a white dwarf, the nature of the compact object in SS73 17 is still uncertain. SS73 17 is probably an extreme example of the recently discovered and relatively small class of hard X-ray emitting symbiotic systems.Comment: 6 pages, accepted by PASJ for 2nd Suzaku Special Issu

Temporal and spatial variations in maximum river discharge from a new Russian data set

Floods cause more damage in Russia than any other natural disaster, and future climate model projections suggest that the frequency and magnitude of extreme hydrological events will increase in Russia with climate change. Here we analyze daily discharge records from a new data set of 139 Russian gauges in the Eurasian Arctic drainage basin with watershed areas from 16.1 to 50,000 km2 for signs of change in maximum river discharge. Several hypotheses about changes in maximum daily discharge and their linking with trends in precipitation over the cold season were tested. For the magnitude of maximum daily discharge we found relatively equal numbers of significant positive and negative trends across the Russian Arctic drainage basin, which draws into question the hypothesis of an increasing risk of extreme floods. We observed a significant shift to earlier spring discharge, which is consistent with documented changes in snowmelt and freeze‐thaw dates. Spatial analysis of changes in maximum discharge and cold season precipitation revealed consistency across most of the domain, the exception being the Lena basin. Trends in maximum discharge of the small‐ to medium‐sized rivers were generally consistent with aggregated signals found for the downstream gauges of the six largest Russian rivers. Although we observe regional changes in maximum discharge across the Russian Arctic drainage basin, no evidence of widespread trends in extreme discharge can be assumed from our analysis

Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers: A growing influence of groundwater in the high‐latitude hydrologic cycle

A first analysis of new daily discharge data for 111 northern rivers from 1936–1999 and 1958–1989 finds an overall pattern of increasing minimum daily flows (or “low flows”) throughout Russia. These increases are generally more abundant than are increases in mean flow and appear to drive much of the overall rise in mean flow observed here and in previous studies. Minimum flow decreases have also occurred but are less abundant. The minimum flow increases are found in summer as well as winter and in nonpermafrost as well as permafrost terrain. No robust spatial contrasts are found between the European Russia, Ob\u27, Yenisey, and Lena/eastern Siberia sectors. A subset of 12 unusually long discharge records from 1935–2002, concentrated in south central Russia, suggests that recent minimum flow increases since ∼1985 are largely unprecedented in the instrumental record, at least for this small group of stations. If minimum flows are presumed sensitive to groundwater and unsaturated zone inputs to river discharge, then the data suggest a broad‐scale mobilization of such water sources in the late 20th century. We speculate that reduced intensity of seasonal ground freezing, together with precipitation increases, might drive much of the well documented but poorly understood increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean