The behavior of federal funds futures prices over the monetary policy cycle

The federal funds futures market enables market participants to both hedge interest rate risk and speculate on interest rate movements. Prices of federal funds futures also reveal market participants' expectations about changes in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy. This information allows monetary policymakers to assess the degree to which asset prices already reflect potential policy moves and these prices' likely reaction to policy changes that deviate from market expectations. ; This article examines the relationship between U.S. monetary policy changes and futures market participants' ability to forecast these changes. Previous research has shown the federal funds futures market to be a relatively good forecaster of changes in the fed funds rate on average. But these studies treated futures market data as a single sample and failed to take into account the significant changes in forecast error behavior over different periods of the monetary policy cycle. ; The authors find that futures market forecast error mean and variance differ substantially over various stages of the monetary policy cycle, with overall performance improving considerably in the latter half of the 1990s before deteriorating sharply through 2000 and 2001. The data also reveal both substantial overshooting and undershooting by futures prices around turning points in the path of the funds rate. Finally, the evidence suggests that increased disclosures of information by the FOMC during the past decade have played only a minor role in improving futures market participants' forecasting performance.Federal funds market (United States) ; Monetary policy

Tracking the Household Income of SSDI and SSI Applicants

Using panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation linked to Social Security Administration disability determination records we trace the pattern of household income and the sources of that income from 38 months prior to 39 months following application for Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) and Supplemental Security Insurance (SSI). We find that the average applicant’s labor earnings declines dramatically beginning six month before application but the average applicant’s household income drops much less dramatically both in the months just before or just after application and over the next three years, and does so even for those denied benefits. However, we also found substantial heterogeneity in household income outcomes in both the SSDI and SSI applicant population. Our quantile regressions suggest that higher income households experience greater percentage declines in their post-application income. Such results are consistent with the lower replacement rate for higher earners established in the SSDI program and the low absolute level of protection provided to all SSI applicants regardless of income prior to application.

Alien Registration- Austin, Richard (Lakeville, Penobscot County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/7573/thumbnail.jp

Lamina-specific AMPA receptor dynamics following visual deprivation in vivo.

Regulation of AMPA receptor (AMPAR) expression is central to synaptic plasticity and brain function, but how these changes occur in vivo remains elusive. Here, we developed a method to longitudinally monitor the expression of synaptic AMPARs across multiple cortical layers in awake mice using two-photon imaging. We observed that baseline AMPAR expression in individual spines is highly dynamic with more dynamics in primary visual cortex (V1) layer 2/3 (L2/3) neurons than V1 L5 neurons. Visual deprivation through binocular enucleation induces a synapse-specific and depth-dependent change of synaptic AMPARs in V1 L2/3 neurons, wherein deep synapses are potentiated more than superficial synapses. The increase is specific to L2/3 neurons and absent on apical dendrites of L5 neurons, and is dependent on expression of the AMPAR-binding protein GRIP1. Our study demonstrates that specific neuronal connections, across cortical layers and even within individual neurons, respond uniquely to changes in sensory experience

The Synthesis of Memristive Neuromorphic Circuits

As Moores Law has come to a halt, it has become necessary to explore alternative forms of computation that are not limited in the same ways as traditional CMOS technologies and the Von Neumann architecture. Neuromorphic computing, computing inspired by the human brain with neurons and synapses, has been proposed as one of these alternatives. Memristors, non-volatile devices with adjustable resistances, have emerged as a candidate for implementing neuromorphic computing systems because of their low power and low area overhead. This work presents a C++ simulator for an implementation of a memristive neuromorphic circuit. The simulator is used within a software framework to design and evaluate these circuits. The first chapter provides a background on neuromorphic computing and memristors, explores other neuromorphic circuits and their programming models, and finally presents the software framework for which the simulator was developed. The second chapter presents the C++ simulator and the genetic operators used in the generation of the memristive neuromorphic networks. Next, the third chapter presents a verification of the accuracy of the simulator, and provides some analysis of designs. These analyses focus on variation, the Axon-Hillock neuron model, limited programming resolutions, and online learning mechanisms. Finally, the fourth chapter discusses future considerations. Thus, this thesis presents the C++ simulator as a tool to generate memristive neuromorphic networks. Additionally, it shows how the simulator can be used to understand how the underlying hardware impacts the application level performance of the network

Toward Safer Skies: An Analysis of Global Governance Gaps and Civil Aviation Accidents

Billions of people around the world use the global airspace system for their travel needs every year. Given the rising number of passengers traveling by air annually, it is crucial that pilots, airlines, regulatory agencies, governments, and international organizations work together to ensure the integrity of a safe and efficient global airspace system. While air travel is statistically one of the safest forms of transportation, accidents in which civilian aircraft operating on standard routes and schedules are shot down are not unprecedented. Not all airspace around the globe designated for civilian use is free from geopolitical conflict. In this project, I consider the role that global governance gaps, which stem from the idea that there is no single global government, play in producing unsafe airspace and situations in which civilian airliners are downed. Two incidents from the late Cold War, Korean Air Lines Flight 007 and Iran Air Flight 655, and one recent incident, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, are reviewed. Using archival material and official responses of pertinent parties to each of the three selected incidents, this study investigates the constellations of global governance gaps and related factors that are responsible for producing instances of airliner downings that the international community should endeavor to avoid in the future. The project seeks to contribute to ongoing discussions about aviation policy decisions and safety practices that aircraft operators, governments, and international organizations might employ to mitigate the occurrence of similar accidents in the future

Estrogen receptor-beta is a potential target for triple negative breast cancer treatment.

Triple Negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a subtype of breast cancer that lacks the expression of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. TNBC accounts for 15-20% of all breast cancer cases but accounts for over 50% of mortality. We propose that Estrogen receptor-beta (ERβ) and IGF2 play a significant role in the pathogenesis of TNBCs, and could be important targets for future therapy. Tissue microarrays (TMAs) from over 250 TNBC patients' were analyzed for ERβ and IGF2 expression by immunohistochemistry. Expression was correlated with clinical outcomes. In addition, TNBC cell lines Caucasians (CA): MB-231/BT549 and African Americans (AAs): MB-468/HCC70/HCC1806 were used to investigate the effect of hormonal and growth factor regulation on cell proliferation. TMAs from AAs had higher expression of ERβ and IGF2 expression when compared to CA. ERβ and IGF2 were found to be upregulated in our TNBC cell lines when compared to other cell types. TNBC cells treated with ERβ agonist displayed significant increase in cell proliferation and migration when compared to controls. AA tissue samples from TNBC patients had higher expression of ERβ. African-American breast cancer TNBC tissue samples from TNBC patients have higher expression of ERβ. In addition, TNBC cell lines were also found to express high levels of ERβ. IGF2 increased transcription of ERβ in TNBC cells. Understanding the mechanisms of IGF2/ERβ axis in TNBC tumors could provide an opportunity to target this aggressive subtype of breast cancer

Fin Flutter Analysis

This report summarizes the experimental process executed to study fin flutter characteristics. The experiment analyzed the influence of the relationship between structural dynamics and aerodynamics on flutter characteristics. Theoretical models were created in PATRAN/NASTRAN and FinSim for comparison to experimental results and to set the envelope of the physical experiments. The theoretical analysis predicted the occurrence of flutter near Mach 1 or Mach 5. The physical model was constructed of solid aluminum with machined holes for the inertial sensors. Two test runs were completed to collect data on the displacement of the fin in the supersonic wind tunnel. Additionally, the tests sought to identify any evidence of flutter as determined by the theorized model. The results showed evidence of both bending and twisting in the fin