Employee turnover prediction and retention policies design: a case study

This paper illustrates the similarities between the problems of customer churn and employee turnover. An example of employee turnover prediction model leveraging classical machine learning techniques is developed. Model outputs are then discussed to design \& test employee retention policies. This type of retention discussion is, to our knowledge, innovative and constitutes the main value of this paper

A model for cost efficient Workforce Organizational Dynamics and its optimization

This paper presents a workforce planning model scalable to an entire hierarchical organization. Its main objective is to design a cost optimal target which leverages flexible workforce solutions while ensuring an efficient promotional flux. The value of this paper lies in its proposal of an adequate flexibility rate using various solution types and in its discussion about external hiring ratios. The mathematical structures of the models are analyzed and numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical background

Toward an integrated workforce planning framework using structured equations

Strategic Workforce Planning is a company process providing best in class, economically sound, workforce management policies and goals. Despite the abundance of literature on the subject, this is a notorious challenge in terms of implementation. Reasons span from the youth of the field itself to broader data integration concerns that arise from gathering information from financial, human resource and business excellence systems. This paper aims at setting the first stones to a simple yet robust quantitative framework for Strategic Workforce Planning exercises. First a method based on structured equations is detailed. It is then used to answer two main workforce related questions: how to optimally hire to keep labor costs flat? How to build an experience constrained workforce at a minimal cost

Strategic Workforce Planning and sales force : a demographic approach to productivity

Sales force Return on Investment (ROI) valuation with marketing mix frameworks is nowadays common. Sizing discussions then generally follow based on market data and business assumptions. Yet, according to our knowledge, little has been done to embed sales force demographic data (age/experience, tenure, gender etc...) as well as dynamics (especially turnover) in order to investigate the impact of the salesforce characteristics on sales. This paper illustrates such an attempt. It shows that sales force ROI valuation can benefit from a correction on turnover and that optimizinga sales rep hiring policy can unleash additional ROI points. The results are yet heavily dependent in the data structure of the study and their generalization would have to be investigated

What is the impact of labor displacement on management consulting services?

Labor displacement off-or nearshore is a performance improvement instrument that currently sparks a lot of interest in the service sector. This article proposes a model to understand the consequences of such a decision on management consulting firms. Its calibration on the market of consulting services for the German transportation industry highlights that, under realistic assumptions, labor displacement translates in price decrease by-0.5% on average per year and that for MC practices to remain competitive/profitable they have to at least increase the amount of work they off/nears shore by +0.7% a year

Financial planning & optimal retirement timing for physically intensive occupations

On average, O.E.C.D. statistics 2 shows that 4 out of 10 workers in developed geographies occupy a "blue-collar" type of position. Since those professions are physically demanding and come with a toll on one's health (which in turns translate into additional healthcare expenses), the length of an individual's active period must be carefully weighted. This paper therefore offers a financial model (and its subsequent program) to help make such decisions. It notably shows that whilst most developed countries require individuals to work for about 40 years, early retirement is a suitable option when healthcare prices are high. This paper also shows that financial literacy has a significant impact on retirements behaviors. For those with a strong predilection for present consumption and little interest in savings and investments, retirement is not an option. In those cases, the financial pressure associated to the healthcare system translates into either an incentive for them to work until the end of their life or not to enter the labor market at all

Transformation des entreprises de services professionnels

This PhD provides an up-to-date view of the mechanisms at play in the transformation of the professional services industry.It first explores the dynamics that have sustained and keep on sustaining the growth of the associated industry (through a mix of theoretical modelling and empirical analysis) and highlights that survival in this industrial realm is now a question of adaptation to deliver services at scale.This thesis then discusses the two key instruments available for such firms: namely labor displacement off/near-shore and labor replacement thanks to automation technology. This discussion is informed by a mix of empirical analysis (survey, regression analysis) which is latter used to propose a view of the end state of the sector (by means of a mean field game analysis).Finally, this thesis investigates the implications of such a transformation on professional services human resources practices (apprenticeship paradigm, promotion rules \& employees compensation & incentives).Cette thèse dépeint les mécanismes actuellement à l’œuvre dans la transformation de l’industrie des services professionnels.\\Elle commence par une description & analyse des dynamiques qui ont sous-tendues (et qui continuent à sous-tendre) la croissance de cette industrie. Cette description est principalement soutenue par des études empiriques, tandis que les analyses proposées sont conceptualisées par le biais de modèles théoriques. Ce premier ensemble de travaux montre que la survie des entreprises de ce milieu est aujourd’hui principalement une question d’adaptation et de passage à l’échelle.Cette thèse explore ensuite les tenants et aboutissants des deux instruments principaux utilisés par ces entreprises pour se transformer, à savoir la délocalisation \& l’automatisation. Cette discussion est informée par une mélange d’étude empiriques (régressions, enquêtes de terrain…). Ces dernières sont ensuite utilisées pour proposer une scénarisation de l’évolution de l’industrie sur le long termes (ce qui est fait via une analyse à champ moyen, une technique très actuelle de l’écono-physique).Cette thèse se conclue par une investigation des conséquences de la transformation du monde des services professionnels sur les pratiques managériales qui structurent ces entreprises (schéma d’apprentissage, règles de promotions et de rémunération…)

Accelerating the distribution of financial products through classification and regression techniques.: A case study in the wealth management industry

Background context. To date, financial products mostly consists in instruments used by households to prepare for retirement (consumption smoothing across the various stages of and one's life-cyle) and/or to transfer wealth across generations. However, the current financial system is not completely efficient in doing so as the level of participation of households remains low. This calls for potentially new tools and techniques aimed at accelerating the distribution of the said products.Specific knowledge gap the work aims to fill . The current studies available on Fintechs & the distribution of financial products mostly revolve around notions of robo-advisors. Use cases usually orbit around automatically structuring \& managing households portfolios under risk (incl. diversification) and performance constraints (e.g. what is the mix of bond and equity to use within a retirement plan to optimize the performance measured as the Sharpe ratio?). However there is no available study on the choices made by households on the products themselves, the associated drivers and the level of investments, a gap this study aims to bridge.Methods used in the study. This study leverages a private data-set from a French Fintech describing at a macro level the structure of 1.5K+ households and their wealth. Post feature selection and data cleansing, the information is fed to standard classification algorithms (e.g. random forest, support vector machine...) and regression techniques (linear regression, multiple kernel estimators...) to predict whether or not households are likely to subscribe to a life insurance or a retirement plan or a real estate program over the forthcoming year and to forecast the associated level of investment .Key findings. The current data-set shows that macro levels indicators on French household structure and wealth can be used to predict their subscription behavior over the next 12 months towards core investments products with a high level of performance (A.U.C >90%). However, macro level information appears insufficient to predict the level of investments on those products (R^2<30-40\%).Implications. The study shows that standard classification techniques could be used by financial advisors to accelerate client discovery on their existing portfolio. This could thereby improve the distribution of financial products and result in productivity gains for those professionals

Where are the opportunities for growth in the professional services space?

The professional services industry (legal, accounting, consulting, architectural services…) employs an important share of the active population in mature countries. However, after decades of undisputed growth, the sector appears to be at a turning point in certain geographies. This article therefore proposes a simple framework to help diagnose where growth opportunities (if any) may lie.When applied to the US economic context, the model indicates that at a macro-economic national level the sector should stall, which concurs with the trend observed over the past decade. However, it also highlights that a few industrial sectors (e.g. the US beverage industry) still offer pockets of growth for a variety of professional expertises. Replicating and fine-tuning those findings could be interesting for practitioners to steer their marketing and business development efforts. On the other hand, the quantitative framework presented in this study could pave the way for future research in the academic community