A study into the export of saline water from Hervey Bay, Australia

Australia's climate is one of the world's driested and locally characterised by high year-to-year rainfall variability. Due to high evaporation and low river runoff many estuaries and embayments in the region are characterised by inverse conditions with salinity increasing toward the coast and river mouths. Such conditions were also found during the first comprehensive hydrographic survey of Hervey Bay located at the east coast of Australia in early spring 2004. The survey traced a subsurface salinity maximum that was found in earlier studies within the East Australia Current east of Hervey Bay to the shallow southwest regions of the bay. These are identified as the most likely source region for locally produced saline Hervey Bay Water. Utilising a simple box model, mean evaporation rates and historical river run-off data, it is demonstrated that inverse conditions are likely to dominate throughout the year. The negative circulation is a climatological feature of this estuary that is not limited to the dry season of the year. Due to persistent drought and declining rainfall in coastal eastern Australia, these conditions are likely to persist into the near future and need to be considered in coastal management strategies

A western boundary current eddy characterisation study

The analysis of an eddy census for the East Australian Current (EAC) region yielded a total of 497 individual short-lived (7-28 days) cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies for the period 1993 to 2015. This was an average of about 23 eddies per year. 41% of the tracked individual cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies were detected off southeast Queensland between about 25 oS and 29 oS. This is the region where the flow of the EAC intensifies forming a swift western boundary current that impinges near Fraser Island on the continental shelf. This zone was also identified as having a maximum in detected short-lived cyclonic eddies. A total of 94 (43%) individual cyclonic eddies or about 4-5 per year were tracked in this region. The census found that these potentially displaced entrained water by about 115 km with an average displacement speed of about 4 km per day. Cyclonic eddies were likely to contribute to establishing an on-shelf longshore northerly flow forming the western branch of the Fraser Island Gyre and possibly presented an important cross-shelf transport process in the life cycle of temperate fish species of the EAC domain. In-situ observations near western boundary currents previously documented the entrainment, off-shelf transport and export of near shore water, nutrients, sediments, fish larvae and the renewal of inner shelf water due to short-lived eddies. This study found that these cyclonic eddies potentially play an important off-shelf transport process off the central east Australian coast

Assessing water renewal time scales for marine environments from three-dimensional modelling: a case study for Hervey Bay, Australia

We apply the three-dimensional Coupled Hydrodynamical Ecological model for Regional Shelf Seas (COHERENS) to compute water renewal time scales for Hervey Bay, a large coastal embayment situated off the central eastern coast of Australia. Water renewal time scales are not directly observable but are derived indirectly from computational studies. Improved knowledge of these time scales assists in evaluating the water quality of coastal environments and can be utilised in sustainable marine resource management. Results from simulations with climatological September forcing are presented and compared to cruise data reported by Ribbe (2006). A series of simulations using idealised forcing provides detailed insight into water renewal pathways and regional differences in renewal timescales. We find that more than 85 % of the coastal embayment’s water is fully renewed within about 50-80 days. The eastern and western shallow coastal regions are ventilated more rapidly than the central, deeper part of the domain. The climatological simulation yields temperature and salinity patterns that are consistent with the observed situation and water renewal times scales in the range of those derived from idealised model studies. While the reported simulations involve many simplifications, the global assessment of the renewal time scale is in the range of a previous estimate derived for this coastal embayment from a simpler model and observational data

Is the East Australian Current causing a marine ecological hot-spot and an important fisheries near Fraser Island, Australia?

The distributions of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) blooms near the Fraser Island continental shelf along the east coast of Australia were analysed for the period 2002–2012. The blooms were found to exhibit two distinct quasi climatological patterns. The first pattern was a broad near-coast mid-shelf distribution that prevailed from about March to July each year. The second pattern was established due to re-occurring outer-shelf Chl-a blooms southeast of Fraser Island from about August to February. The outer-shelf Chl-a bloom concentration maxima appeared to be higher than those associated with the near coast pattern. Both distributions were found to be characterised by significant year-to-year variability in the number of total blooms, the length of blooms and the Chl-a bloom concentration maxima. The physical cause of the outer-shelf Chl-a concentration maxima was of particular interest, since this location overlaps with a region previously identified as a key eastern Australian marine ecological site and important fisheries. In this analysis, we found that the area also overlaps with a hot-spot in EAC-generated bottom layer stress, which appears to be the main driver of the 'Southeast Fraser Island Upwelling System'

20th century rainfall variability and the role of large scale climate events within Indo-Pacific region from IPCC AR4 models, reanalysis and observations

[Abstract]: The performance of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report No. 4 (IPCC AR4) models in simulating rainfall variability within Indo-Pacific region is being investigated. Data from 21 different climate models together with National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis and other rainfall observations is being compared. The observational data sets were taken from gridded rainfall Indonesian observation data sets as well as a comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for the globe from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets. The focus of the study is firstly, a model comparison in simulating historical rainfall variability in the region, and secondly, an investigation of the models sensitivity in simulating large scale climate events such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole and its relationship with the rainfall variability over the region. Particular attention also upon the simulation of multi-decadal rainfall variability in the Indo-Pacific region

Seasonal climate forecasts for more effective raingrown grain-cotton production systems

Cropping is a risky business. Our highly variable climate makes it difficult to decide how best to manage crops and cropping systems. What works well one year might not work well the next. To develop better risk management practices, this project uses the APSIM cropping systems model to examine the profitability and sustainability of a range of alternative dryland cotton/grain cropping systems throughout the northern grain region of eastern Australia. It involves working closely with farmer collaborators in Central Queensland, the Darling Downs, the northwest slopes of NSW and the Liverpool Plains

Marine Heat Waves and the Influence of El Niño off Southeast Queensland, Australia

In this paper, we investigate the occurrence and spatial variability of marine heat waves (MHWs) off the southeast coast of Queensland, Australia. The focus is on identifying sea surface temperature (SST) variability in two key ecological hotspots located south of the Australian Great Barrier Reef. This coastal region is bordered in the east by the intensification zone of the East Australian Current (EAC). It includes Hervey Bay, which is part of a UNESCO declared marine biosphere and the Southeast Fraser Island Upwelling System. The analysis of remotely sensed SST for the period 1993 to 2016 identifies the largest number of MHW days for Hervey Bay with a mean length of 12 days. The maximum length of 64 days occurred during the austral summer 2005/2006. The years with the largest number of MHW days was found to occur following the El Niño events in 1998, 2010, and 2016. A cross-correlation and Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis identified a significant correlation with a time lag of 7 months between SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region and the southeast Queensland coast. 78% of variance in SST anomalies is explained by the first mode of variability. The strength of the relationship with El Niño was spatially variable and the weakest in Hervey Bay. Due to its sheltered location and shallowness, it is argued that local weather patterns and air-sea fluxes influence this area more than the other two regions, where remotely forced changes in oceanic heat advection may have a stronger impact on generating MHWs. Biodiverse coastal shelf ecosystems are already under tremendous pressure due to human activities. This is likely to be compounded by continued climatic change and an increasing number of MHWs. Thus, similar studies are encouraged for other regional shelfs and smaller scale coastal systems

Marine heat waves and the influence of El Nino off southeast Queensland, Australia

In this paper, we investigate the occurrence and spatial variability of marine heat waves (MHWs) off the southeast coast of Queensland, Australia. The focus is on identifying sea surface temperature (SST) variability in two key ecological hotspots located south of the Australian Great Barrier Reef. This coastal region is bordered in the east by the intensification zone of the East Australian Current (EAC). It includes Hervey Bay, which is part of a UNESCO declared marine biosphere and the Southeast Fraser Island Upwelling System. The analysis of remotely sensed SST for the period 1993 to 2016 identifies the largest number of MHW days for Hervey Bay with a mean length of 12 days. The maximum length of 64 days occurred during the austral summer 2005/2006. The years with the largest number of MHW days was found to occur following the El Niño events in 1998, 2010 and 2016. A cross-correlation and Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis identified a significant correlation with a time lag of seven months between SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region and the southeast Queensland coast. 78% of variance in SST anomalies is explained by the first mode of variability. The strength of the relationship with El Niño was spatially variable and the weakest in Hervey Bay. Due to its sheltered location and shallowness, it is argued that local weather patterns and air-sea fluxes influence this area more than the other two regions, where remotely forced changes in oceanic heat advection may have a stronger impact on generating MHWs. Biodiverse coastal shelf ecosystems are already under tremendous pressure due to human activities. This is likely to be compounded by continued climatic change and an increasing number of MHWs. Thus, similar studies are encouraged for other regional shelfs and smaller scale coastal systems

Seasonal climate influences on the timing of the Australian monsoon onset

The timing of the first monsoon burst of the season, or the monsoon onset, can be a critical piece of information for agriculture, fire management, water management, and emergency response in monsoon regions. Why do some monsoon seasons start earlier or later than others? Previous research has investigated the impact of climate influences such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monsoon variability, but most studies have considered only the impact on rainfall and not the timing of the onset. While this question could be applied to any monsoon system, this research presented in this paper has focused on the Australian monsoon. Even with the wealth of research available on the variability of the Australian monsoon season, the timing of the monsoon onset is one aspect of seasonal variability that still lacks skilful seasonal prediction. To help us better understand the influence of large-scale climate drivers on monsoon onset timing, we recreated 11 previously published Australian monsoon onset datasets and extended these to all cover the same period from the 1950/1951 through the 2020/2021 Australian wet seasons. The extended datasets were then tested for correlations with several standard climate indices to identify which climate drivers could be used as predictors for monsoon onset timing. The results show that many of the relationships between monsoon onset dates and ENSO that were previously published are not as strong when considering the extended datasets. Only a strong La Niña pattern usually has an impact on monsoon onset timing, while ENSO-neutral and El Niño patterns lacked a similar relationship. Detrended Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) data showed a weak relationship with monsoon onset dates, but when the trend in the IOD data is retained, the relationship with onset dates diminishes. Other patterns of climate variability showed little relationship with Australian monsoon onset dates. Since ENSO is a tropical climate process with global impacts, it is prudent to further re-examine its influences in other monsoon regions too, with the aim to evaluate and improve previously established prediction methodologies