Modeling Clinical Endpoints as a Function of Time of Switch to Second-line ART With Incomplete Data on Switching Times

Modeling clinical endpoints as a function of change in antiretroviral therapy (ART) attempts to answer one simple but very challenging question: was the change in ART beneficial or not? We conceive a similar scientific question of interest in the current manuscript except that we are interested in modeling the time of ART regimen change rather than a comparison of two or more ART regimens. The answer to this scientific riddle is unknown and has been difficult to address clinically. Naturally, ART regimen change is left to a participant and his or her provider and so the date of change depends on participant characteristics. There exists a vast literature on how to address potential confounding and those techniques are vital to the success of the method here. A more substantial challenge is devising a systematic modeling strategy to overcome the missing time of regimen change for those participants who do not switch to second-line ART within the study period even after failing the initial ART. In this paper, we adopt and apply a statistical method that was originally proposed for modeling infusion trial data, where infusion length may be informatively censored, and argue that the same strategy may be employed here. Our application of this method to therapeutic HIV/AIDS studies is new and interesting. Using data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) Study A5095, we model immunological endpoints as a polynomial function of a participant’s switching time to second-line ART for 182 participants who already failed the initial ART. In our analysis, we find that participants who switch early have somewhat better sustained suppression of HIV-1 RNA after virological failure than those who switch later. However, we also found that participants who switched very late, possibly censored due to the end of the study, had good HIV-1 RNA suppression, on average. We believe our scientific conclusions contribute to the relevant HIV literature and hope that the basic modeling strategy outlined here would be useful to others contemplating similar analyses with partially missing treatment length data

Hyperlipidaemia in HIV-infected patients on lopinavir/ritonavir monotherapy in resource-limited settings

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an emerging concern for HIV-infected patients. Hyperlipidemia is a risk factor for CVD and a complication of protease-inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy, but little is known about its incidence and risk factors in treated patients in resource-limited settings (RLS)

Evaluating the Effect of Early Versus Late ARV Regimen Change if Failure on an Initial Regimen: Results From the AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study A5095

The current goal of initial antiretroviral (ARV) therapy is suppression of plasma human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 RNA levels to below 200 copies per milliliter. A proportion of HIV-infected patients who initiate antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice or antiretroviral clinical trials either fail to suppress HIV-1 RNA or have HIV-1 RNA levels rebound on therapy. Frequently, these patients have sustained CD4 cell counts responses and limited or no clinical symptoms and, therefore, have potentially limited indications for altering therapy which they may be tolerating well despite increased viral replication. On the other hand, increased viral replication on therapy leads to selection of resistance mutations to the antiretroviral agents comprising their therapy and potentially cross-resistance to other agents in the same class decreasing the likelihood of response to subsequent antiretroviral therapy. The optimal time to switch antiretroviral therapy to ensure sustained virologic suppression and prevent clinical events in patients who have rebound in their HIV-1 RNA, yet are stable, is not known. Randomized clinical trials to compare early versus delayed switching have been difficult to design and more difficult to enroll. In some clinical trials, such as the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) Study A5095, patients randomized to initial antiretroviral treatment combinations, who fail to suppress HIV-1 RNA or have a rebound of HIV-1 RNA on therapy are allowed to switch from the initial ARV regimen to a new regimen, based on clinician and patient decisions. We delineate a statistical framework to estimate the effect of early versus late regimen change using data from ACTG A5095 in the context of two-stage designs

Antiretroviral Drug Resistance in HIV-1–Infected Patients Experiencing Persistent Low-Level Viremia During First-Line Therapy

Population sequencing was performed for persons identified with persistent low-level viremia in 2 clinical trials. Persistent low-level viremia (defined as plasma HIV-1 RNA level >50 and <1000 copies/mL in at least 2 determinations over a 24-week period, after at least 24 weeks of antiretroviral therapy) was observed in 65 (5.6%) of 1158 patients at risk. New resistance mutations were detected during persistent low-level viremia in 37% of the 54 evaluable cases. The most common mutations were M184I/V (14 cases), K103N (9), and M230L (3). Detection of new mutations was associated with higher HIV-1 RNA levels during persistent low-level viremia

Birth Weight for Gestational Age Norms for a Large Cohort of Infants Born to HIV-Negative Women in Botswana Compared with Norms for U.S.-Born Black Infants

Background: Standard values for birth weight by gestational age are not available for sub-Saharan Africa, but are needed to evaluate incidence and risk factors for intrauterine growth retardation in settings where HIV, antiretrovirals, and other in utero exposures may impact birth outcomes. Methods: Birth weight data were collected from six hospitals in Botswana. Infants born to HIV-negative women between 26-44 weeks gestation were analyzed to construct birth weight for gestational age charts. These data were compared with published norms for black infants in the United States. Results: During a 29 month period from 2007-2010, birth records were reviewed in real-time from 6 hospitals and clinics in Botswana. Of these, 11,753 live infants born to HIV-negative women were included in the analysis. The median gestational age at birth was 39 weeks (1st quartile 38, 3rd quartile 40 weeks), and the median birth weight was 3100 grams (1st quartile 2800, 3rd quartile 3400 grams). We constructed estimated percentile curves for birth weight by gestational age which demonstrate increasing slope during the third trimester and leveling off beyond 40 weeks. Compared with black infants in the United States, Botswana-born infants had lower median birth weight for gestational age from weeks 37 through 42 (p < .02). Conclusions: We present birth weight for gestational age norms for Botswana, which are lower at term than norms for black infants in the United States. These findings suggest the importance of regional birth weight norms to identify and define risk factors for higher risk births. These data serve as a reference for Botswana, may apply to southern Africa, and may help to identify infants at risk for perinatal complications and inform comparisons among infants exposed to HIV and antiretrovirals in utero

Impact of Minority Nonnucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor Resistance Mutations on Resistance Genotype After Virologic Failure

Drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) minority variants increase the risk of virologic failure for first-line nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimens. We performed a pooled analysis to evaluate the relationship between NNRTI-resistant minority variants and the likelihood and types of resistance mutations detected at virologic failure. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, higher NNRTI minority variant copy numbers, non-white race, and nevirapine use were associated with a higher risk of NNRTI resistance at virologic failure. Among participants on efavirenz, K103N was the most frequently observed resistance mutation at virologic failure regardless of the baseline minority variant. However, the presence of baseline Y181C minority variant was associated with a higher probability of Y181C detection after virologic failure. NNRTI regimen choice and preexisting NNRTI-resistant minority variants were both associated with the probability and type of resistance mutations detected after virologic failur

Screening for UGT1A1 Genotype in Study A5257 Would Have Markedly Reduced Premature Discontinuation of Atazanavir for Hyperbilirubinemia

Background. Some patients are not prescribed atazanavir because of concern about possible jaundice. Atazanavir-associated hyperbilirubinemia correlates with UGT1A1 rs887829 genotype. We examined bilirubin-related discontinuation of atazanavir in participants from AIDS Clinical Trials Group Study A5257. Methods. Discriminatory properties of UGT1A1 T/T genotype for predicting bilirubin-related atazanavir discontinuation through 96 weeks after antiretroviral initiation were estimated. Results. Genetic analyses involved 1450 participants, including 481 who initiated randomized atazanavir/ritonavir. Positive predictive values of rs887829 T/T for bilirubin-related discontinuation of atazanavir (with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were 20% (CI, 9%–36%) in Black, 60% (CI, 32%–84%) in White, and 29% (CI, 8%–58%) in Hispanic participants; negative predictive values were 97% (CI, 93%–99%), 95% (CI, 90%–98%), and 97% (CI, 90%–100%), respectively. Conclusions. Bilirubin-related discontinuation of atazanavir was rare in participants not homozygous for rs887829 T/T, regardless of race or ethnicity. We hypothesize that the higher rate of discontinuation among White participants homozygous for rs887829 T/T may reflect differences in physical manifestations of jaundice by race and ethnicity. Selective avoidance of atazanavir initiation among individuals with T/T genotypes would markedly reduce the likelihood of bilirubin-related discontinuation of atazanavir while allowing atazanavir to be prescribed to the majority of individuals. This genetic association will also affect atazanavir/cobicistat

Ideal cardiovascular health, biomarkers, and coronary artery disease in persons with HIV

OBJECTIVE: To investigate relationships between Life\u27s Simple 7 (LS7), an assessment of cardiovascular health (CVH), and coronary plaque among people with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: Cross-sectional. METHODS: Coronary computed tomography angiography, immune/inflammatory biomarkers, and characterization of LS7 were collected among a subset of ART-treated PWH enrolled in REPRIEVE, a primary prevention trial. Analyses adjusted for cardiovascular disease risk (ASCVD score). RESULTS: Median age of the 735 participants was 51(±6) years, 16% female, and median (Q1-Q3) CVD risk was 4.5% (2.6-6.9). Forty percent had poor (≤2 ideal components), 51% had intermediate (three or four ideal components), and only 9% had ideal CVH (≥5). Coronary plaque was present in 357 (49%); 167 (23%) had one or more vulnerable plaque features, 293 (40%) had noncalcified plaque, and 242 (35%) had a coronary artery calcium score \u3e0. All three phenotypes were increasingly more prevalent with poorer CVH and these relationships remained after adjusting for ASCVD risk. Poor CVH was associated with higher high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, oxidized low-density cholesterol, and interleukin-6. The relationship of LS7 to plaque remained after adjusting for these biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Among PWH, poor CVH as measured by LS7 was associated with coronary plaque presence, vulnerable features, and calcification. LS7 was also associated with selected biomarkers; adjustment for these and ASCVD score reduced but did not eliminate LS7\u27s association with plaque, suggesting the possibility of additional protective mechanisms against atherogenesis and plaque remodeling. Clinical use of LS7 and further exploration of its relationships with coronary artery disease may enhance efforts to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in PWH. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02344290

Differential CD4+ cell count increase and CD4+ : CD8+ ratio normalization with maraviroc compared with tenofovir

Studies exploring the immunologic effects of maraviroc (MVC) have produced mixed results; hence it remains unclear whether MVC has unique immunologic effects in comparison to other antiretroviral drugs. We sought to determine whether MVC has differential effects compared to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) during initial antiretroviral therapy