Access to Modern Energy: Assessment and Outlook for Developing and Emerging Regions

This report provides a high-level assessment of the progress to date, past policies and programs, and future scenarios related to modern energy access developed within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA). Providing universal access to modern energy for all is a goal increasingly discussed in international and national policy settings. Developing solutions to this challenge is one of the chief aims of policy makers, and for this reason this report attempts to synthesize a multitude of strategic insights that have resulted from the GEA analysis of this issue. The overarching objective of the report is to provide guidance on how to facilitate the achievement of universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves, and rural electrification by 2030. Focus is given to assessing the situation at global and regional levels, as well as to the types of policies and measures that will be needed to ensure a successful household transition to modern energy in the next decades. Of particular note are the assessment of key success factors for enhancing access at a regional level, and estimation of investments required and impacts of achieving a 2030 universal modern energy access target. This report is complemented by two interactive, web-based analytical tools, which have been developed in support of this study: (1) the IIASA Energy Access Tool (Energy-ENACT), which permits the assessment of alternative future policy scenarios, including an estimation of investment needs and impacts at the global and regional scales; and (2) the GEA Scenario Database, which documents the full suite of GEA pathways in great detail, allowing the user to explore the consequences of different supply and demand-side technology choices for the feasibility and costs of reaching multiple energy objectives at both the global and regional levels

"They should have this in every court." Evaluation of the NSW Women’s Refuge Movement Women's Family Law Support Service (WFLSS)

This is an evaluation of the first support service in Australia for women attending the Family Courts. The WFLSS is a partnership between the NSW Women's Refuge Movement and the Family Court of Australia. This evaluation provides the views of women and court staff about the service

The IIASA Energy Access Tool (Energy-ENACT)

Researchers from the Energy Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), building on work carried out within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA), have developed an interactive web-based scenario analysis tool that permits assessment of different policies for achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030. This software, known as the IIASA Energy-ENACT tool, is designed to assist national and regional policy makers and analysts in their strategic policy planning processes. The tool extends work undertaken for the GEA and, as such, is built on an extensive set of energy access scenarios to visualise costs and benefits of specific policy choices and their impacts. This document serves as an introduction to the Energy-ENACT tool and as a brief manual for the typical user

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world's largest river basins

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet, reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (~4.3-4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different scenarios when quantifying available surface water yields and the potential for reservoir expansion

Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030

A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of achieving total rural electrification and universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves by 2030. Our analysis indicates that these targets can be achieved with additional investment of US$(2005)65-86 billion per year until 2030 combined with dedicated policies. Only a combination of policies that lowers costs for modern cooking fuels and stoves, along with more rapid electrification, can enable the realization of these goals. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of accounting for varying demands and affordability across heterogeneous household groups in both analysis and policy setting. While the investments required are significant, improved access to modern cooking fuels alone can avert between 0.6 and 1.8 million premature deaths annually in 2030 and enhance wellbeing substantially

Energy Investments under Climate Policy: A Comparison of Global Models

The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2 degrees C climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range:$30-75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some$30 trillion ($10-55 trillion), or$0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists -- notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2 degrees C target could potentially become out of reach

Prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation with postoperative epicardial electrograms

Objectives. New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery. The arrhythmia often entails a longer hospital stay, greater risk of other complications, and higher mortality both short- and long-term. An investigation of the use of early atrial electrograms in predicting POAF in cardiac surgery was performed. Design. In this prospective observational study, a total of 99 consecutive adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery or both were included. On the first postoperative morning, standard 12-lead electrograms (ECG), unipolar atrial electrograms (aEG), and vital values were recorded. The outcome was new-onset POAF within one month postoperatively. Results. Three multivariable prediction models for POAF were formed using measurements derived from the ECG, aEG, and patient characteristics. Age, body mass index, and two unipolar electrogram measurements quantifying local activation time and fractionation were strongly associated with the outcome POAF. The performance of the POAF prediction models was assessed through receiver operating curve characteristics with cross-validation, and discrimination using the leave-one-out-method to internally validate the models. The cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was improved in a prediction model using atrial-derived electrogram variables (AUC 0.796, 95% CI 0.698-0.894), compared with previous ECG and clinical models (AUC 0.716, 95% CI 0.606-0.826 and AUC 0.718, 95% CI 0.613-0.822, respectively). Conclusions. This study found that easily obtainable measurements from atrial electrograms may be helpful in identifying patients at risk of POAF in cardiac surgery