Clinical validity assessment of a breast cancer risk model combining genetic and clinical information

_Background:_ The extent to which common genetic variation can assist in breast cancer (BCa) risk assessment is unclear. We assessed the addition of risk information from a panel of BCa-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on risk stratification offered by the Gail Model.

_Methods:_ We selected 7 validated SNPs from the literature and genotyped them among white women in a nested case-control study within the Women’s Health Initiative Clinical Trial. To model SNP risk, previously published odds ratios were combined multiplicatively. To produce a combined clinical/genetic risk, Gail Model risk estimates were multiplied by combined SNP odds ratios. We assessed classification performance using reclassification tables and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. 

_Results:_ The SNP risk score was well calibrated and nearly independent of Gail risk, and the combined predictor was more predictive than either Gail risk or SNP risk alone. In ROC curve analysis, the combined score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.594 compared to 0.557 for Gail risk alone. For reclassification with 5-year risk thresholds at 1.5% and 2%, the net reclassification index (NRI) was 0.085 (Z = 4.3, P = 1.0×10^-5^). Focusing on women with Gail 5-year risk of 1.5-2% results in an NRI of 0.195 (Z = 3.8, P = 8.6×10^−5^).

_Conclusions:_ Combining clinical risk factors and validated common genetic risk factors results in improvement in classification of BCa risks in white, postmenopausal women. This may have implications for informing primary prevention and/or screening strategies. Future research should assess the clinical utility of such strategies.
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Localization of a Susceptibility Gene for Type 2 Diabetes to Chromosome 5q34–q35.2

We report a genomewide linkage study of type 2 diabetes (T2D [MIM 125853]) in the Icelandic population. A list of type 2 diabetics was cross-matched with a computerized genealogical database clustering 763 type 2 diabetics into 227 families. The diabetic patients and their relatives were genotyped with 906 microsatellite markers. A nonparametric multipoint linkage analysis yielded linkage to 5q34–q35.2 (LOD = 2.90, P=1.29×10(-4)) in all diabetics. Since obesity, here defined as body mass index (BMI) ⩾30 kg/m(2), is a key risk factor for the development of T2D, we studied the data either independently of BMI or by stratifying the patient group as obese (BMI ⩾30) or nonobese (BMI <30). A nonparametric multipoint linkage analysis yielded linkage to 5q34–q35.2 (LOD = 3.64, P=2.12×10(-5)) in the nonobese diabetics. No linkage was observed in this region for the obese diabetics. Linkage analysis conditioning on maternal transmission to the nonobese diabetics resulted in a LOD score of 3.48 (P=3.12×10(-5)) in the same region, whereas conditioning on paternal transmission led to a substantial drop in the LOD score. Finally, we observed potential interactions between the 5q locus and two T2D susceptibility loci, previously mapped in other populations