Magyar alkalmazkodás az Európai Unió monetáris együttműködéséhez - tanulságok (Hungarian adaption to the monetary cooperation)

A cikk röviden összefoglalja az optimális valutaövezetek elméletének fejlődési állomásait, miközben felvet néhány kérdést a 2008-ban kezdődött válsággal kapcsolatban. Ezt követően áttekinti az elmélet és a válság által felvetett problémákra a gazdasági és monetáris unió által adott válaszokat. Végül az elmélet, az európai szabályozás aktuális állapota és a hazai tapasztalatok, lehetőségek tükrében megvizsgálja, hogy a jelenlegi helyzetben Magyarországnak milyen érdekei és ellenérdekei fűződhetnek az euró bevezetéséhez. Az írás kísérletet tesz arra, hogy kijelölje a hazai gazdaságpolitika kívánatos irányvonalát. _______ The article briefly summarizes the developments of the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, while states some questions regarding the crises starting in 2008. Secondly, it reviews the solutions given by the economic and monetary union to the problems raised by the OCA theory and the crisis. Thirdly, it evaluates the pros and cons for Hungary to introduce the euro as its own currency in the light of the OCA theory, the state of the European legislation and the Hungarian track record and possibilities. Finally, it shows the desired direction for the official Hungarian economic and financial policy

Az USA-EU kereskedelmi tárgyalások várható hatása a magyar növekedésre

A 2013 eleje óta formálódó Transzatlanti Kereskedelmi és Beruházási Partnerségi tárgyalások védelmi Egyezmény (TTIP) kapcsán az a közgazdasági sejtés, hogy az egyezmény növekedési hatásokkal jár a résztvevő felek számára. Tanulmányunk A cikk Magyarország vonatkozásában becsli a TTIP addicionális növekedési, foglalkoztatási és beruházási hatásait. A szerzők számításaink a számítható általános egyensúly (CGE) alapú modellek árrugalmassági, illetve kereskedelemrugalmassági megközelítésére épül. Lehetőségeinkhez mérten ágazati bontásban vizsgáljuk a hatásokat. Eredményeinket összevetjük más kutatók becsléseive

Governance in Europe, Trends and Fault Lines

The deepening of European integration has been expected to trigger constant adjustments in Member States since the start, especially with regard to the harmonisation of development of their national institutions. Our empirical analysis of Member State-level governance found, however, that such an expectation proved to be an illusion in most of the cases. One of the most typical lessons of the past decade or so is precisely that the quality of governance has deteriorated in quite a few countries despite the fact that it was during this period that the euro was introduced, allowing a level of integration deeper than ever before. This in turn signals that establishing successful European-level uniform governance is a hopeless endeavour – at least with the current Member States. The deep-rooted differences impact the ability of countries to move together with the rest and also their capacities to achieve macro-economic convergence. The absence of such convergence does not simply make individual Member States vulnerable, but endangers the whole of the euro area

Monetary Transmission in Hungary

The Hungarian Monetary Transmission Mechanism research project was expected to fill the gaps in our knowledge. Almost fifteen years after the beginning of the Hungarian transition to a market economy, we felt that the time has come to launch a comprehensive research project with the purpose of obtaining an understanding based on more solid econometric results. Our project was also motivated by the Monetary Transmission Network in the Eurosystem, which gave us the opportunity to compare the Hungarian transmission mechanism to that of the euro area. It took almost three years for the colleagues at the Bank's economics department to explore the most important areas of the transmission mechanism. The research faced several challenges. The data used for estimation are still not completely satisfactory. Moreover, the framework of monetary policy, as well as some structural features of the Hungarian economy have changed during the period under investigation. Moreover, the special characteristics of our economy required a focus somewhat different from what is usual in the literature. Due to the uneven information available regarding the various sectors and markets, it was clear from the beginning that some areas would have to receive only limited coverage, rendering the synthesis of individual results difficult. Despite these shortcomings, the empirical work presented in this volume allows us to gain a better understanding of the Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism and has thus served its stated objective well. The benefits of the project are threefold. First, it confirms our assumption about the primacy of the exchange rate channel in Hungary's small open economy. Second, there are some interesting results that may alter our thinking about how the monetary transmission works. For example, we obtained a refined and – at least compared to earlier beliefs – slightly different picture about the way consumption and investments react to monetary policy actions . Third, it brought to the fore important areas where our knowledge is far from being satisfactory. This recognition calls for further research in order to strengthen the theoretical underpinnings of our monetary policy actions. Such areas are, for example, the labour market and credit markets. We also need a deeper understanding of the factors at work determining the exchange rate. This volume collects the papers written by the project participants. The volume is structured as follows. Studies dealing with the first stages of the transmission mechanism, i.e. how the monetary policy actions are transmitted to financial markets and asset prices, are presented first. They are followed by papers estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy and the behavior of aggregate demand. The last study in the volume tries to assess the potential consequences on the transmission mechanism of joining the eurozone.monetary transmission, Hungary, interest rate pass-through, monetary policy shock, exchange rate smoothing, bank-lending, structural VAR, aggregate demand, investment behavior, euro.