Regionalisation of climate impacts on flood flows to support the development of climate change guidance for Flood Management

Current Defra / Environment Agency guidance (FCDPAG3 supplementary note: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/pubs/pagn/climatechangeupdate.pdf) requires all flood management plans to allow for climate change by incorporating, within a sensitivity analysis, an increase in river flows of up 20% over the next 50 years, and beyond. This guidance is the same for all of England and Wales, making no allowance for regional variation in climate change or catchment type. This reflects the lack of scientific evidence to resolve the spatial distribution of potential impacts on flood flows with enough confidence to set such policy regionally. The 20% allowance was first raised in 1999 for MAFF and subsequently reviewed following the release of the UKCIP02 scenarios. Although the 20% figure is a memorable precautionary target, there is the risk that it leads to a significant under- or over-estimation of future flood risk in individual catchments. Defra and the Environment Agency procured project FD2020 (Regionalisation of climate change impacts on flood flows) to provide a more rigorous science base for refreshing the FCDPAG3: supplementary note guidance. The FD2020 approach is exploring the relationships between catchment characteristics and climate change impacts on peak flows in a “scenario neutral” way. This is done by defining a regular set of changes in climate that encompass all the current knowledge from the new scenarios available from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. For each of the 155 catchments included in the research, this broad approach will provide multiple scenarios to produce a “vulnerability surface” for change in the metrics of peak flows (e.g. the 20-year flood flow). Some of the UKCP09 products have also been used to understand what these projections may mean for changes to peak flow. The catchment-based analysis will be used to generalise to other gauged sites across Britain, using relationships with catchment characteristics, providing the scientific evidence for the development of regional guidance on climate change allowances. Specifically the project is: Investigating the impact of climate change on peak river flows in over 150 catchments across Britain to assess the suitability of the FCDPAG3 20% climate change allowance. Investigating catchment response to climate change to identify potential similarities such that the FCDPAG3 nationwide allowance could be regionalised. Investigating the uncertainty in changes to future peak river flows from climate change. Developing an approach that has longevity beyond the project timeframe and the lifetime of the latest generation of climate model results

Seasonality of precipitation in the southwestern United States during the late Pleistocene inferred from stable isotopes in herbivore tooth enamel

The late Pleistocene was a climatically dynamic period, with abrupt shifts between cool-wet and warmdry conditions. Increased effective precipitation supported large pluvial lakes and long-lived spring ecosystems in valleys and basins throughout the western and southwestern U.S., but the source and seasonality of the increased precipitation are debated. Increases in the proportions of C4/(C4+ C3) grasses in the diets of large grazers have been ascribed both to increases in summer precipitation and lower atmospheric CO2 levels. Here we present stable carbon and oxygen isotope data from tooth enamel of late Pleistocene herbivores recovered from paleowetland deposits at Tule Spring Fossil Beds National Monument in the Las Vegas Valley of southern Nevada, as well as modern herbivores from the surrounding area. We use these data to investigate whether winter or summer precipitation was responsible for driving the relatively wet hydroclimate conditions that prevailed in the region during the late Pleistocene. We also evaluate whether late Pleistocene grass C4/(C4+ C3) was higher than today, and potential drivers of any changes. Tooth enamel δ18O values for Pleistocene Equus, Bison, and Mammuthus are generally low (average 22.0 ± 0.7‰, 2 s.e., VSMOW) compared to modern equids (27.8 ± 1.5‰), and imply lower water δ18O values (-16.1 ± 0.8‰) than modern precipitation (-10.5‰) or in waters present in active springs and wells in the Las Vegas Valley (-12.9‰), an area dominated by winter precipitation. In contrast, tooth enamel of Camelops (a browser) generally yielded higher δ18O values (23.9 ± 1.1‰), possibly suggesting drought tolerance. Mean δ13C values for the Pleistocene grazers (-6.6 ± 0.7‰, 2 s.e., VPDB) are considerably higher than for modern equids (-9.6 ± 0.4‰) and indicate more consumption of C4 grass (17 ± 5%) than today (4 ± 4%). However, calculated C4 grass consumption in the late Pleistocene is strikingly lower than the proportion of C4 grass taxa currently present in the valley (55-60%). δ13C values in Camelops tooth enamel (-7.7 ± 1.0‰) are interpreted as reflecting moderate consumption (14 ± 8%) of Atriplex (saltbush), a C4 shrub that flourishes in regions with hot, dry summers. Lower water δ18O values, lower abundance of C4 grasses, and the inferred presence of Atriplex are all consistent with general circulation models for the late Pleistocene that show enhanced delivery of winter precipitation, sourced from the north Pacific, into the interior western U.S. but do not support alternative models that infer enhanced delivery of summer precipitation, sourced from the tropics. In addition, we hypothesize that dietary competition among the diverse and abundant Pleistocene fauna may have driven the grazers analyzed here to feed preferentially on C4 grasses. Dietary partitioning, especially when combined with decreased pCO2 levels during the late Pleistocene, can explain the relatively high δ13C values observed in late Pleistocene grazers in the Las Vegas Valley and elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. without requiring additional summer precipitation. Pleistocene hydroclimate parameters derived from dietary and floral records may need to be reevaluated in the context of the potential effects of dietary preferences and lower pCO2 levels on the stability of C3 vs. C4 plants

Akimotoite to perovskite phase transition in MgSiO 3

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94612/1/grl18182.pd