A propensity index for surface runoff on a karst plateau

Karst aquifers are an important water resource, but are particularly vulnerable to pollution due to the typically short residence times. As the rainwater runs off on the surface it may collect contamination from faeces and other sources, before infiltrating the surface. It is therefore important to understand the spatial distribution of the frequency of surface runoff in karst areas. This paper proposes a new field-mapping method for the ability of the landscape to produce and convey surface runoff. The mapping method is based on (i) prior spatial information (e.g. geological map, terrain model), (ii) a visual assessment from a distance at the landscape scale (e.g. traces of surface runoff) and (iii) local data collection in the field (e.g. soil moisture, grain size distribution). The focus on variables that can be assessed from a distance in the landscape makes the method suitable for mapping larger areas than traditional field mapping. The mapping method is developed and tested for the 60&thinsp;km2 Hochschwab area in Austria. The field mapping is used to specify a surface runoff propensity index which is tested against the spatial distribution of observed sink holes in the area. The mapping indicates that, in the study region, runoff occurs much more frequently in the poorly karstified dolomitic areas than in the limestone areas that are highly karstified. On dolomites, low permeable soils or debris prevail, often resulting in a permanent surface drainage network. On karstified limestone, sometimes overlaid by debris, surface runoff only occurs through infiltration excess at high rainfall intensities. Overall the analyses suggest that the mapping method is suitable for efficiently and reliably identifying spatial patterns of the ability of the landscape to produce and convey surface runoff in karst areas.</p

Ensemble prediction of floods &ndash; catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities

Quantifying the uncertainty of flood forecasts by ensemble methods is becoming increasingly important for operational purposes. The aim of this paper is to examine how the ensemble distribution of precipitation forecasts propagates in the catchment system, and to interpret the flood forecast probabilities relative to the forecast errors. We use the 622 km² Kamp catchment in Austria as an example where a comprehensive data set, including a 500 yr and a 1000 yr flood, is available. A spatially-distributed continuous rainfall-runoff model is used along with ensemble and deterministic precipitation forecasts that combine rain gauge data, radar data and the forecast fields of the ALADIN and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models. The analyses indicate that, for long lead times, the variability of the precipitation ensemble is amplified as it propagates through the catchment system as a result of non-linear catchment response. In contrast, for lead times shorter than the catchment lag time (e.g. 12 h and less), the variability of the precipitation ensemble is decreased as the forecasts are mainly controlled by observed upstream runoff and observed precipitation. Assuming that all ensemble members are equally likely, the statistical analyses for five flood events at the Kamp showed that the ensemble spread of the flood forecasts is always narrower than the distribution of the forecast errors. This is because the ensemble forecasts focus on the uncertainty in forecast precipitation as the dominant source of uncertainty, and other sources of uncertainty are not accounted for. However, a number of analyses, including Relative Operating Characteristic diagrams, indicate that the ensemble spread is a useful indicator to assess potential forecast errors for lead times larger than 12 h

Impact of mountain permafrost on flow path and runoff response in a high alpine catchment

Permafrost in high alpine catchments is expected to disappear in future warmer climates, but the hydrological impact of such changes is poorly understood. This paper investigates the flow paths and the hydrological response in a 5 km2 high alpine catchment in the Ötztal Alps, Austria, and their changes resulting from a loss of permafrost. Spatial permafrost distribution, depth to the permafrost table, and depth to the bedrock were mapped by geophysical methods. Catchment runoff and meteorological variables were monitored from June 2008 to December 2011. These data were used along with field experience to infer conceptual schemes of the dominant flow paths in four types of hillslopes that differ in terms of their unconsolidated sediment characteristics and the presence of permafrost. The four types are: talus fans, rock glaciers, Little Ice Age (LIA) till, and pre-LIA till. Permafrost tends to occur in the first three types, but is absent from pre-LIA till. Based on these flow path concepts, runoff was simulated for present conditions and for future conditions when permafrost has completely disappeared. The simulations indicate that complete disappearance of permafrost will reduce flood peaks by up to 17% and increase runoff during recession by up to 19%. It is argued that change modeling needs to account for flow path types and their changes based on geophysical surveys and field investigations