Estimating Historical Forest Density From Land‐Survey Data: A Response to Baker and Williams (2018)

In the Western United States, historical forest conditions are used to inform land management and ecosystem restoration goals (North et al. 2009, Stephens et al. 2016). This interest is based on the premise that historical forests were resilient to ecological disturbances (Keane et al. 2018). Researchers throughout the United States have used the General Land Office (GLO) surveys of the late 19th and early 20th centuries to estimate historical forest conditions (Bourdo 1956, Schulte and Mladenoff 2001, Cogbill et al. 2002, Paciorek et al. 2016). These surveys were conducted throughout the United States and represent a systematic, historical sample of trees across a broad geographic area. A challenge of using GLO survey data is the accurate estimation of tree density from sparse witness tree data. Levine et al. (2017) tested the accuracy and precision of four plotless density estimators that can be applied to GLO survey sample data, including the Cottam (Cottam and Curtis 1956), Pollard (Pollard 1971), Morisita (Morisita 1957), and mean harmonic Voronoi density (MHVD; Williams and Baker 2011) estimators. The Cottam, Pollard, and Morisita are count‐based plotless density estimators (PDE) and have a history of being applied to GLO data (e.g., Kronenfeld and Wang 2007, Rhemtulla et al. 2009, Hanberry et al. 2012, Maxwell et al. 2014, Goring et al. 2016). The MHVD estimator is an area‐based PDE that has been applied by the study\u27s authors to sites in the western United States (Baker 2012, 2014), but had not been independently evaluated. Levine et al. (2017) found that the Morisita estimator was the least biased and most precise estimator for estimating density from GLO survey data, with a relative root mean square error ranging from 0.11 to 0.78 for the six study sites. Levine et al. (2017) also demonstrated the MHVD approach consistently overestimated density from 16% to 258% in all six study areas that were analyzed

Tamm Review: Reforestation for resilience in dry western U.S. forests

The increasing frequency and severity of fire and drought events have negatively impacted the capacity and success of reforestation efforts in many dry, western U.S. forests. Challenges to reforestation include the cost and safety concerns of replanting large areas of standing dead trees, and high seedling and sapling mortality rates due to water stress, competing vegetation, and repeat fires that burn young plantations. Standard reforestation practices have emphasized establishing dense conifer cover with gridded planting, sometimes called \u27pines in lines\u27, followed by shrub control and pre-commercial thinning. Resources for such intensive management are increasingly limited, reducing the capacity for young plantations to develop early resilience to fire and drought. This paper summarizes recent research on the conditions under which current standard reforestation practices in the western U.S. may need adjustment, and suggests how these practices might be modified to improve their success. In particular we examine where and when plantations with regular tree spacing elevate the risk of future mortality, and how planting density, spatial arrangement, and species composition might be modified to increase seedling and sapling survival through recurring drought and fire events. Within large areas of contiguous mortality, we suggest a “three zone” approach to reforestation following a major disturbance that includes; (a) working with natural recruitment within a peripheral zone near live tree seed sources; (b) in a second zone, beyond effective seed dispersal range but in accessible areas, planting a combination of clustered and regularly spaced seedlings that varies with microsite water availability and potential fire behavior; and (c) a final zone defined by remote, steep terrain that in practice limits reforestation efforts to the establishment of founder stands. We also emphasize the early use of prescribed fire to build resilience in developing stands subject to increasingly common wildfires and drought events. Finally, we highlight limits to our current understanding of how young stands may respond and develop under these proposed planting and silvicultural practices, and identify areas where new research could help refine them

Continental-Scale Tree-Ring-based Projection of Douglas-Fir Growth: Testing the Limits of Space-for-time Substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed-effects model to capture ring-width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas-fir\u27s range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi-arid interior. Ring-width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas-fir\u27s distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed-effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook\u27s 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree-ring networks and results as a calibration target for next-generation vegetation models

Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.SK acknowledges the support of the USDA-AFRI grant 2016-67003-24944; MEKE was supported by the National Science Foundation under award DBI-1802893. FB acknowledges statutory funds from the W. Szafer Institute of Botany PAS, as well as support from the project “Inside out” (#POIR.04.04.00-00-5F85/18-00) funded by the HOMING programme of the Foundation for Polish Science, co-financed by the European Union under the European Regional Development Fund.12 month embargo; first published: 20 May 2020This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.SK acknowledges the support of the USDA-AFRI grant 2016-67003-24944; MEKE was supported by the National Science Foundation under award DBI-1802893. FB acknowledges statutory funds from the W. Szafer Institute of Botany PAS, as well as support from the project “Inside out” (#POIR.04.04.00-00-5F85/18-00) funded by the HOMING programme of the Foundation for Polish Science, co-financed by the European Union under the European Regional Development Fund.12 month embargo; first published: 20 May 2020This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]