Bayesian networks as a decision support tool for rural water supply and sanitation sector

Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets during the last decade, still millions of people across the world lack of improved access to water supply or basic sanitation. The increasing complexity of the context in which these services are delivered is not properly captured by the conventional approaches that pursue to assess water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) interventions. Instead, a holistic framework is required to integrate the wide range of aspects which are influencing sustainable and equitable provision of safe water and sanitation, especially to those in vulnerable situations. In this context, the WaSH Poverty Index (WaSH-PI) was adopted, as a multi-dimensional policy tool that tackles the links between access to basic services and the socio-economic drivers of poverty. Nevertheless, this approach does not fully describe the increasing interdependency of the reality. For this reason, appropriate Decision Support Systems (DSS) are required to i) inform about the results achieved in past and current interventions, and to ii) determine expected impacts of future initiatives, particularly taking into account envisaged investments to reach the targets set by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This would provide decision-makers with adequate information to define strategies and actions that are efficient, effective, and sustainable. This master thesis explores the use of object-oriented Bayesian networks (ooBn) as a powerful instrument to support project planning and monitoring, as well as targeting and prioritization. Based on WaSH-PI theoretical framework, a simple ooBn model has been developed and applied to reflect the main issues that determine access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene. A case study is presented in Kenya, where the Government launched in 2008 a national program aimed to increase the access to improved water, sanitation and hygiene in 22 of the 47 existing districts. Main impacts resulted from this initiative are assessed and compared against the initial situation. This research concludes that the proposed approach is able to accommodate the conditions at different scales, at the same time that reflects the complexities of WaSH-related issues. Additionally, this DSS represents an effective management tool to support decisionmakers to formulate informed choices between alternative actions

Drinking water in Barcelona through the lenses of sustainability

Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::11 - Ciutats i Comunitats Sostenibles::11.1 - Per a 2030, assegurar l’accés de totes les persones a habitatges i a serveis bàsics adequats, segurs i assequibles, i millorar els barris margina

A novel planning approach for the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) sector: the use of object-oriented bayesian networks

Conventional approaches to design and plan water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) interventions are not suitable for capturing the increasing complexity of the context in which these services are delivered. Multidimensional tools are needed to unravel the links between access to basic services and the socio-economic drivers of poverty. This paper applies an object-oriented Bayesian network to reflect the main issues that determine access to WaSH services. A national Program in Kenya has been analyzed as initial case study. The main findings suggest that the proposed approach is able to accommodate local conditions and to represent an accurate reflection of the complexities of WaSH issues, incorporating the uncertainty intrinsic to service delivery processes. Results indicate those areas in which policy makers should prioritize efforts and resources. Similarly, the study shows the effects of sector interventions, as well as the foreseen impact of various scenarios related to the national Program.Preprin

A holistic and participatory information system for rural water and sanitation sector in Latin America and the Caribbean

The provision of water supply, sanitation and hygiene services has emerged as a top priority in the development agenda in Latin American and the Caribbean. In light of the investments envisaged to reach the targets set by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), information systems (IS) will play a key role in improving decision-making. In this context, this article introduces a global IS which is increasingly implemented in a number of countries across Latin America and the Caribbean as a policy instrument to support national and local decision-making: the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Information System (SIASAR). This information system includes a comprehensive framework for data collection, data analysis and data dissemination that simultaneously fulfils different stakeholders’ needs. This article analyses these three key monitoring issues from the viewpoint of stakeholders’ involvement. Results indicate that SIASAR represents a suitable monitoring framework to analyse sustainable services and the level of service delivered. Additionally, it is highlighted the advantages of adopting a continued participatory approach in system development, namely i) the stimulation of experience exchange and knowledge sharing among recipient counties, ii) the promotion of learnt-by-doing, and iii) an increase of regional understanding, collaboration and comparison.Postprint (published version

Peligros del alma y medios para salvarlos : egercicio [sic] breve en siete meditaciones para los dias de la semana

Copia digital. Valladolid : Junta de Castilla y León. Consejería de Cultura y Turismo, 2009-2010Il. xil. intercaladas en textoEnc. perg

Exploring the interlinkages of water and sanitation across the 2030 Agenda: a Bayesian Network approach

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development recognizes the indivisible and integrated nature of its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets, as well as the need to address these interlinkages to fully achieve its aims. In addition, the Agenda stresses the importance of “leaving no one behind”, which can only be achieved by understanding the interlinkages between the Goals and by undertaking actions to bring them together for the benefit of all. Thus, the identification of these linkages will enable countries to implement the SDGs effectively by harnessing synergies between them while managing potential conflicts. Despite their significance in monitoring initiatives, indicators separately are not adequate to provide an insight into the complex cause and effect relations within global development issues. The suitability of Bayesian Networks (BNs) to integrate multiple and simultaneous relationships has been largely exploited in the literature. Taking a dedicated goal on water and sanitation (SDG 6) as starting point, this paper reviews the potential of a BNs approach to analyse the interdependency between the SDGs, the associated targets and the corresponding indicators. Available global data has been exploited to run the BNs model. Achieved results are compared with a recent research developed by UN-Water, where interlinkages between the targets under Goal 6 and other targets across the 2030 Agenda are conceptually described. The paper discusses the extent to which a BNs is a suitable system to identify and assess these linkages, relationships and synergies. The study concludes that a BNs approach is useful to accommodate the complexities and interdependencies of the SDGs targets and indicators.Postprint (published version

Bayesian network modelling of hierarchical composite indicators

The water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) sector has witnessed the development of multiple tools for multidimensional monitoring. Hierarchical and composite indicators (CI)-based conceptual frameworks provide one illustrative example. However, this approach does not address the existing interrelationship of the indicators they integrate. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are increasingly exploited to assess WaSH issues and to support planning and decision-making processes. This research aims to evaluate the validity, reliability and feasibility of BNs to replicate an existing CI-based conceptual framework. We adopt a data-driven approach and we propose a semi-automatic methodology. One regional monitoring initiative is selected as a pilot study: the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Information System (SIASAR). Data from two different countries are processed and analysed to calibrate and validate the model and the method. Major findings show i) an improvement of model inference capacity when providing structure to the networks (according to the CI-based framework), ii) a reduction and quantification of the key components that explain a pre-defined objective variable (implying important advantages in data updating), and iii) an identification of interlinkages among these components (which might enhance multi- and trans-disciplinary actions). We conclude that BNs accurately replicates the CI-based conceptual framework. The proposal contributes to its wider application.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

El precursor a la Santa visita ó preparación para que los adultos reciban dignamente el sacramento de la confirmación, por el bachiller en jurisprudencia

Copia digital. Valladolid : Junta de Castilla y León. Consejería de Cultura y Turismo, 2009-201

Novena al glorioso San Bernardino de Sena, patrón de la villa de Cuenca de Campos

Copia digital. Valladolid : Junta de Castilla y León. Consejería de Cultura y Turismo, 2009-201

Estrés académico y procrastinación en estudiantes de una Universidad de la Provincia de Chiclayo

El objetivo del presente estudio fue determinar la relación entre la el estrés académico y procrastinación en los estudiantes de una Universidad de la provincia de Chiclayo, a metodología que se uso fue de tipo básica, nivel descriptivo correlacional y de diseño no experimental, la población la conformaron 206 estudiantes y una muestra de 135 estudiantes, el instrumento que se utilizo fue la encuesta, los resultados del estudio en relación a los niveles de estrés académico, un 34,07 manifestaron un nivel bajo, un 32,6 % un nivel medio de estrés académico y en menor porcentaje, 33,3% un nivel alto. El nivel de procrastinación fue alto en un 34,1%, bajo en un 33,3% y el 32.6% indicó un nivel medio de procrastinación. Del mismo modo existe una correlación positiva fuerte entre la variable estrés académico y procrastinación de los estudiantes (p = 0.000), se concluye que, ante un mayor estrés académico, mayor será la procrastinación de los estudiantes de una universidad de la provincia de Chiclayo.TesisComunicación y desarrollo human