The impact of cockpit automation on crew coordination and communication. Volume 1: Overview, LOFT evaluations, error severity, and questionnaire data

The purpose was to examine, jointly, cockpit automation and social processes. Automation was varied by the choice of two radically different versions of the DC-9 series aircraft, the traditional DC-9-30, and the glass cockpit derivative, the MD-88. Airline pilot volunteers flew a mission in the simulator for these aircraft. Results show that the performance differences between the crews of the two aircraft were generally small, but where there were differences, they favored the DC-9. There were no criteria on which the MD-88 crews performed better than the DC-9 crews. Furthermore, DC-9 crews rated their own workload as lower than did the MD-88 pilots. There were no significant differences between the two aircraft types with respect to the severity of errors committed during the Line-Oriented Flight Training (LOFT) flight. The attitude questionnaires provided some interesting insights, but failed to distinguish between DC-9 and MD-88 crews

What kind of Brexit do voters want? Lessons from the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit

The Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit was a major exercise in deliberative public engagement conducted in autumn 2017. It brought together fifty randomly selected members of the public for two carefully structured weekends of listening, learning, reflecting and discussing. Assembly Members considered what post-Brexit arrangements the UK should pursue, focusing on trade and migration. On trade, most Members wanted the UK to pursue a bespoke arrangement with the EU and rejected the option of leaving the EU with no deal. On migration, most wanted the UK to maintain free movement of labour while using already available policy levers to reduce immigration numbers. These findings provide unique insight into informed public opinion on vital, pressing policy questions. The Assembly also illustrates the valuable role that such deliberative exercises could play in UK democracy. We suggest they could be particular helpful for unlocking progress on issues, such as the future of social care, that are often felt to be ‘too difficult’ to handle

Quantifying annual variation in catchability for commercial and research fishing

Biomass indices, from commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) or random trawl surveys, are commonly used in fisheries stock assessments. Uncertainty in such indices, often ex-pressed as a coefficient of variation (CV), has two components: observation error, and annual variation in catchability. Only the former can be estimated directly. As a result, the CVs used for these indices either ignore the annual-variation component or assume a value for it (often implicitly). Two types of data for New Zealand stocks were examined: 48 sets of residuals and catchability estimates from stock assessments using either CPUE or trawl survey indices; and biomass estimates from 17 time series of trawl surveys with between 4 and 25 species per time series. These data show clear evidence of significant annual variation in catchability. With the trawl survey data, catchability was detectably extreme for many species in about one year in six. The assessment data suggest that this annual variability typically has a CV of about 0.2. For commercial CPUE the variability is slightly less, and a typical total CV (including both components) of 0.15 to 0.2. This is much less than the values of 0.3 to 0.35 that have commonly been assumed in New Zealand. Some estimates of catchability are shown to be implausible

A Preliminary Evaluation of the Ability of Keratotic Tissue to Act as a Prognostic Indicator of Hip Fracture Risk

Studies have shown that Raman spectroscopic analysis of fingernail clippings can help differentiate between post-menopausal women who have and who have not suffered a fracture. However, all studies to date have been retrospective in nature, comparing the proteins in nails sourced from women, post-fracture. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of a prospective test for hip fracture based on spectroscopic analysis of nail tissue. Archived toenail samples from post-menopausal women aged 50 to 63 years in the Nurses\u27 Health Study were obtained and analysed by Raman spectroscopy. Nails were matched case-controls sourced from 161 women; 82 who underwent a hip fracture up to 20 years after nail collection and 81 age-matched controls. A number of clinical risk factors (CRFs) from the Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) tool had been assessed at toenail collection. Using 80% of the spectra, models were developed for increasing time periods between nail collection and fracture. Scores were calculated from these models for the other 20% of the sample and the ability of the score to predict hip fracture was tested in model with and without the CRFs by comparing the odds ratios (ORs) per 1 SD increase in standardised predictive values. The Raman score successfully distinguished between hip fracture cases and controls. With only the score as a predictor, a statistically significant OR of 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-3.1) was found for hip fracture for up to 20 years after collection. The OR increased to 3.8 (2.6-5.4) when the CRFs were added to the model. For fractures limited to 13 years after collection, the OR was 6.3 (3.0-13.1) for the score alone. The test based on Raman spectroscopy has potential for identifying individuals who may suffer hip fractures several years in advance. Higher powered studies are required to evaluate the predictive capability of this test

Fates of Eroded Soil Organic Carbon: Mississippi Basin Case Study

We have developed a mass balance analysis of organic carbon (OC) across the five major river subsystems of the Mississippi (MS) Basin (an area of 3.2 3 106 km2). This largely agricultural landscape undergoes a bulk soil erosion rate of ;480 t·km22·yr21 (;1500 3 106 t/yr, across the MS Basin), and a soil organic carbon (SOC) erosion rate of ;7 t·km22·yr21 (;22 3 106 t/yr). Erosion translocates upland SOC to alluvial deposits, water impoundments, and the ocean. Soil erosion is generally considered to be a net source of CO2 release to the atmosphere in global budgets. However, our results indicate that SOC erosion and relocation of soil apparently can reduce the net SOC oxidation rate of the original upland SOC while promoting net replacement of eroded SOC in upland soils that were eroded. Soil erosion at the MS Basin scale is, therefore, a net CO2 sink rather than a source.This paper is part of ongoing studies by the coauthors to determine the role of landscape erosion and deposition in material fluxes and biogeochemical cycling. Parts of this work have been supported by internal institutional support at CICESE, Emporia State University, Miami University College of Arts and Science, and the Kansas Geological Survey, and by a Kansas NASA EPSCoR grant awarded to R. W. Buddemeier and R. O. Sleezer.We thank the numerous individuals who contributed technical assistance or conceptual support to these efforts. Three reviewers have provided useful critical comments on versions of this manuscript. Of these, we would like to single out Jon Cole, who thoroughly grasped the big picture of what we were advancing and whose summary comment seems worth quoting: ‘‘The idea that soil erosion is a large net sink of atmospheric CO2 is very interesting, well supported by the arguments and data in this paper, and likely to be a huge controversy. This controversy is a good thing, as Martha Stewart might say.’

Robust adaptation decision-making under uncertainty: Real Options Analysis for water storage

Planning for climate change adaptation is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty associated with future climate changes. Although we have a range of climate projections, even these cannot provide a definitive picture of the future, with little certainty regarding the timing, magnitude and location of change. As a result there is increasing interest in approaches that can accommodate uncertainty better. A range of approaches exist and are being developed across several disciplines. Each has advantages and disadvantages and is suited for different types of decisions. In this study we focus on one of these approaches, Real Options Analysis (ROA), and chose water storage for irrigation as an example to demonstrate its use in uncertain futures