Public Procurement Policy: Implications for Theory and Practice

This paper proposes a conceptual framework for the study of public procurement policy. It reviews policy-related writings by public procurement scholars and assesses these works from the perspective of their contributions to generalized understandings of public procurement policy. Selected tools and concepts from the policy sciences are applied to propose a model to illuminate unique aspects of public procurement policy in ways that will facilitate its study. The paper concludes by discussing some recent actions, trends, and issues from the U.S defense procurement sector in terms of the framework. Models such as the one proposed in this paper will contribute to enhanced approaches to procurement policy analysis by scholars, as well as to informed and sophisticated policy implementation by practitioners

Forecasting COVID-19 daily cases using phone call data

The need to forecast COVID-19 related variables continues to be pressing as the epidemic unfolds. Different efforts have been made, with compartmental models in epidemiology and statistical models such as AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS) or computing intelligence models. These efforts have proved useful in some instances by allowing decision makers to distinguish different scenarios during the emergency, but their accuracy has been disappointing, forecasts ignore uncertainties and less attention is given to local areas. In this study, we propose a simple Multiple Linear Regression model, optimised to use call data to forecast the number of daily confirmed cases. Moreover, we produce a probabilistic forecast that allows decision makers to better deal with risk. Our proposed approach outperforms ARIMA, ETS and a regression model without call data, evaluated by three point forecast error metrics, one prediction interval and two probabilistic forecast accuracy measures. The simplicity, interpretability and reliability of the model, obtained in a careful forecasting exercise, is a meaningful contribution to decision makers at local level who acutely need to organise resources in already strained health services. We hope that this model would serve as a building block of other forecasting efforts that on the one hand would help front-line personal and decision makers at local level, and on the other would facilitate the communication with other modelling efforts being made at the national level to improve the way we tackle this pandemic and other similar future challenges.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figure

Analyzing the Effects of Source Selection Method, Acquisition Type, and Service Component on Acquisition Outcomes

For years, one of the most hotly contested debates in contracting and acquisition has been the choice of source selection method and the contract-related consequences of that choice. While policy memos encourage contracting officers to ﾓselect the appropriate source selection process ﾅ to match the specific requirement, meet Warfighter needs, and deliver a contracted solution that will provide the required performance levels at the lowest costﾔ (Kendall, 2015, p. 3), stakeholders on both sides of the table have differing views about how the choice of source selection method affects contract outcomes. Anecdotally, from the perspective of the government, lowest priced technically acceptable (LPTA) procedures offer a faster time-to-contract, as the technical acceptability criteria is binary and the evaluation of priceﾗthe most important factor in LPTA source selectionsﾗis objective. Hence, theoretically, the requirement can be put on contract faster, with less likelihood of protest. The sellersﾒ perspective, however, is that the LPTA source selection method stifles innovation, because price is more important than, say, an innovative approach that may ultimately better serve the government (Calisti, 2015). Critics argue that the LPTA method often results in the selection of a contractor that has undercut the cost of the requirement. They argue that the contractor has essentially achieved ﾓbuy-inﾔ by proposing an unreasonably low price that will later have to be adjusted (i.e., increased) via modification in order to fulfill the terms and conditions of the contract. This sort of gamesmanship of the LPTA method has been the argument of federal contractors for many years. Further, opponents of the LPTA method believe the process represents a ﾓrace to the bottomﾔ price-wise, and mockingly dub the outcomes achieved by LPTA contracts as ﾓLousy Project, Tragic Actﾔ (Weckstein & Delgado, 2012). In other words, opponents feel LPTA source selections produce inferior products and services. Proponents suggest this is not the case, and that by providing clear technical acceptability criteria, the government can avoid receiving inferior products and services. On the opposite spectrum of the best value continuum, the tradeoff (TO) source selection method is anecdotally believed to take more time because of the subjective nature of the evaluation and the increased likelihood of protest. Customers and contractors alike seem to prefer this approach, as it allows customers to feel a certain measure of control over selecting the contractor that represents the best value to the governmentﾗthat by ranking the evaluation factors in terms of importance, they have the option of tailoring the evaluation to fully meet their needs. Contractors also seem to prefer this method, as it allows them to provide innovative solutions to government requirements, without the burden of competing mainly based on price. Proponents of the TO method argue that it results in higher quality products and services because contractors are not ﾓsqueezedﾔ on price. Opponents argue that the method does not necessarily produce better contractual outcomes (i.e., better contract performance), particularly given the anecdotal belief that TO acquisitions take longer to put on contract. Choosing which method is appropriate for a given acquisition is clearly established by policy and is not the focus of this research. Instead, we aim to use scientific methods to confirm or deny the anecdotal beliefs associated with each source selection method. We use multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) methods to determine if statistically significant differences in contract outcomes exist based on source selection method. This first-of-kind research uses actual contract file data from the Air Force and Navy to test hypotheses associated with the anecdotal beliefs. Specifically, we examine whether differences exist in Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System (CPARS) scores and procurement administrative lead time (PALT) based on choice of source selection method (LPTA or TO), while taking into account several different covariates related to the acquisitions. The remainder of this paper proceeds as follows: The Literature Review section provides a detailed review of the contract management process, the best value continuum, and the relationship between contract type and source selection method. Following that is a discussion of the data collection and analysis methodologies, results of the analysis, and finally, a review of practical and managerial implications, as well as limitations and areas for further research.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Preparing Engineering Duty Officers (EDOs) for Command of Major Acquisition Shore Commands and Major Acquisition Programs

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe U.S. Navy's capabilities regarding the entire sequence of ships and shipboard systems acquisition (research, development, testing, production, deployment, and operations/maintenance of ships and shipboard systems) needs continuous improvement to counter advancing threats. Engineering Duty Officers (EDOs) have long been associated with these capabilities in both technical and leadership positions. Over the years, the range and complexity of these professional areas have increased, and some of the developmental leadership opportunities have become diluted. This study will conduct a focused analysis of the current fundamental leadership and professional development for EDOs in comparison with those of other Navy communities and Department of Defense (DoD) agencies and with private best practices. It will then focus on determining the leadership experiences required to prepare EDOs to successfully take command and lead the Navy's large, complex civilian organizations such as shipyards or regional maintenance centers. Based on findings, we will make recommendations for improving the EDO community talent management practices to successfully prepare EDOs for command and leadership of major shore acquisition commands. The study's findings will impact the Navy's capabilities regarding the research, development, testing, production, deployment, and operations and maintenance of ships and shipboard systems.N1 - Manpower, Personnel, Training & EducationThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Preparing Engineering Duty Officers (EDOs) for Command of Major Acquisition Shore Commands and Major Acquisition Programs

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThe U.S. Navy's capabilities regarding the entire sequence of ships and shipboard systems acquisition (research, development, testing, production, deployment, and operations/maintenance of ships and shipboard systems) needs continuous improvement to counter advancing threats. Engineering Duty Officers (EDOs) have long been associated with these capabilities in both technical and leadership positions. Over the years, the range and complexity of these professional areas have increased, and some of the developmental leadership opportunities have become diluted. This study will conduct a focused analysis of the current fundamental leadership and professional development for EDOs in comparison with those of other Navy communities and Department of Defense (DoD) agencies and with private best practices. It will then focus on determining the leadership experiences required to prepare EDOs to successfully take command and lead the Navy's large, complex civilian organizations such as shipyards or regional maintenance centers. Based on findings, we will make recommendations for improving the EDO community talent management practices to successfully prepare EDOs for command and leadership of major shore acquisition commands. The study's findings will impact the Navy's capabilities regarding the research, development, testing, production, deployment, and operations and maintenance of ships and shipboard systems.N1 - Manpower, Personnel, Training & EducationThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

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The State of the Circumstellar Medium Surrounding Gamma-Ray Burst Sources and its Effect on the Afterglow Appearance

We present a numerical investigation of the contribution of the presupernova ejecta of Wolf-Rayet stars to the environment surrounding gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), and describe how this external matter can affect the observable afterglow characteristics. An implicit hydrodynamic calculation for massive stellar evolution is used here to provide the inner boundary conditions for an explicit hydrodynamical code to model the circumstellar gas dynamics. The resulting properties of the circumstellar medium are then used to calculate the deceleration of a relativistic, gas-dynamic jet and the corresponding afterglow light curve produced as the shock wave propagates through the shocked-wind medium. We find that variations in the stellar wind drive instabilities that may produce radial filaments in the shocked-wind region. These comet-like tails of clumps could give rise to strong temporal variations in the early afterglow lightcurve. Afterglows may be expected to differ widely among themselves, depending on the angular anisotropy of the jet and the properties of the stellar progenitor; a wide diversity of behaviors may be the rule, rather than the exception.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, ApJ in pres

Structural Combination of Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Forecasts Applied to Load Forecasting

This article draws from research on ensembles in computational intelligence to propose structural combinations of forecasts, which are point forecast combinations that are based on information from the parameters of the individual models that generated the forecasts. Two types of structural combination are proposed which use seasonal exponential smoothing as base models, and are applied to forecast short-term electricity demand. Although forecasting performance may depend on how ensembles are generated, results show that the proposed combinations can outperform competitive benchmarks. The methods can be used to forecast other seasonal data and be extended to different types of forecasting models